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Michael Parmar

 
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  • Daily State Of The Markets: Worried About The Rally? Join The Club [View article]
    David, great article.

    I am in that camp that spends probably too much time thinking about what the market could do next and greatly appreciate your insights into what the market is doing now

    - it helps to keep me humble and honest as in truth no one knows what the market is going to do next as you keep saying
    Mar 6 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Make Macro Extremes Work For You [View article]
    great article
    Mar 2 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hawaii 5-0 Trade [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, the importance of the "system" is more the Hawaii 5-0 score than the trade itself.

    The score is a good indicator of changes in market direction beyond noise.

    Trading it should be done intelligently, and not mechanically.


    Mar 1 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Rudely Reinserts Itself Back Into The Conversation [View article]
    Have you read the Fed's strategy statement?

    You would be wise to as it summarises a clea Taylor rule approach to monetary policy and a "balanced" approach to the twin objectives of full employment and inflation target.

    Your commentary/analsysi might be different from the one above.
    Feb 25 07:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Signs The U.S. Economy Is Heading For Big Trouble In The Months Ahead [View article]
    Would be really interesting to see what you come up with.

    I think you'll struggle
    Feb 24 06:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coming Week Market Movers: 7 Things You Absolutely Must Watch [View article]
    Thx - great commentary and clear signposting through the busy week ahead, much appreciated
    Feb 24 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 20 Signs The U.S. Economy Is Heading For Big Trouble In The Months Ahead [View article]
    good article, nice summary of points
    Feb 20 09:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gravity Still Works, After All [View article]
    Hosing data was not that bad - there was a big drop relative to december because december number was outlandlishly large !!

    It was a base effect, not a trend indicator.

    ( the sector is vulnerable to QE tonedown, my take is that it was in response to Fed minutes.)

    I take your point that the doves so outnumber the hawks, so when " many participants" wondered about whether QE needed to be tapered prior to unemployment threshold reached it was actually not the hawks talking but the doves.
    Feb 20 09:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's Favorite Valuation Metric Surges Over The 100% Level [View article]
    1. Take out AAPL fro mNAsdaq and recalculate your metrics
    2. don't EVER use PEAK P/E earnings as a metric, always use trough P/E
    3. maybe those US companies with cash hordes are hording cash because - despite interest rates at 0-3% on cash return - they can't find anything decent to invest in relative to that return

    But if you need a justification to invest now in case you are missing out then go ahead.

    because greed = the fear of missing out.
    Feb 15 01:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fasten Your Safety Belts In 2013 [View article]
    The forecast takes into account the Fed's projection of the impact of reduced spending/increased taxes - I read somewhere (or think I saw it in a press conference answer to a question) where Charmain Bernanke vaguely replied that they expect Washington to get about "half way" there to fixing the problems.

    It struck me that with a deficit of $1 trillion, reducing that to half involves - $500bn from the economy.

    Asset purchases are $40bn per month X 12 = $480bn

    Don't those numbers look (coincidentally) close?

    And yes, the market hasn't priced it in.

    They priced in the Fed "juice" (and more) but not the sequester.
    Feb 4 05:40 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fasten Your Safety Belts In 2013 [View article]
    Thanks for the comment TAS.

    It amazes me how many people forget the heartache of a bad week or quarter once their positions pay off and they convince themselves that what they are doing now is right by looking backwards and ignore the warning signs.

    Outcastsearcher,

    I'm not doing this for the money or the clients. You do your own research and ignore people like me.


    Feb 4 05:24 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • When QE3 Will End [View article]
    the 6.5% is linked to INTEREST RATES, not QE!!

    Many in the market think its is linked to QE but read the Feds statement carefully or look at the middle of this article which highlights the paragraph

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Feb 3 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fasten Your Safety Belts In 2013 [View article]
    Thanks for the correction. Yes I meant the Fed.

    Operation twist has left the Fed with significant positions in government bonds at the long end of yield curve after rolling off holdings at the short end. In some asset classes these already exceed 50% of total bond issuance last time I checked.

    It is a supply restriction not a demand restriction - the Fed can always print more money to buy bonds.
    Feb 3 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fasten Your Safety Belts In 2013 [View article]
    Thanks for the comment! Made my day :)
    Feb 3 01:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fasten Your Safety Belts In 2013 [View article]
    Thanks fr your comment, the x axis is marked in quarters.

    As I have found out myself "herding" is very prevalent.

    Because of herding behaviour we get disconnects between fundamentals and prices - we are in one now and the reason for this article.

    My forecast looking at the underlying fundamentals tracks the point where "herding" leads to market mis-pricing and great investment opportunities!
    Feb 3 12:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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