Seeking Alpha
View as an RSS Feed

Michael Parmar  

View Michael Parmar's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • A Subtle View Of Labor Market Improvement [View article]
    Thanks for the valuable insight.

    Not so subtle!
    May 24, 2013. 09:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Golden Canary In The Coal Mine [View article]
    Nice article, good to see an objective view of gold, and market positioning relative to Fed statements
    May 13, 2013. 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market recap: Stocks closed well off lows during the final hour, but the S&P still logged its worst week of the year, pressured by a weak March jobless report which, combined with other data earlier this week, seems to confirm fears of a very sluggish recovery. Networking stocks were big losers due to F5's guidance, but techs generally were weak. Investors flocked to safe-haven Treasurys, where yields hit YTD lows[View news story]
    No such thing as a free market, never has been.
    Apr 6, 2013. 06:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Fight The Fed: Investment Strategy For The Coming 'Unwind' [View article]
    Understanding Fed balance sheet : ABS purchase -> money in banks -> pump into equities.............. the same day.

    Look at the charts.

    The Fed language regarding unwind changed, as soon as minutes were out and it looked like Fed unwind was on the table and stocks started to sink Fed took steps to talk up their asset plan.... there is a new "Fedspeak" developing, just a lot more subtle than the one before.

    Yet, actions speak louder than words hence my comment above.
    Mar 28, 2013. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Euro And S&P 500: Beware Of Optical Deception [View article]
    just trend spotting or train (wreck) spotting?
    Mar 7, 2013. 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mean-Variance Optimization Vs. Naive Diversification In Portfolio Allocation [View article]
    Interesting article.

    Did you expect otherwise from unconstrained MVO?

    And did you really need to bootstrap given the proximity of the estimated returns and the size of the Standard deviations? they clearly overlap within 1 SD of each other, so basic stats would tell you they are VERY close in a statistical sense, and a simple test of the the means were significantly different would show how close they were
    Mar 7, 2013. 04:23 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Daily State Of The Markets: Worried About The Rally? Join The Club [View article]
    David, great article.

    I am in that camp that spends probably too much time thinking about what the market could do next and greatly appreciate your insights into what the market is doing now

    - it helps to keep me humble and honest as in truth no one knows what the market is going to do next as you keep saying
    Mar 6, 2013. 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on ADP jobs: January's job gain is revised higher by 23K jobs to 215K. At 198K in February, job growth has slowed from the previous 3 reads, but is ahead of all the prints from March through October last year. (full report[View news story]
    Jason, thats what i do.

    I also multiply that number by average real hourly wage to get a feel for gross earnings of the main consumer group in the world.
    Mar 6, 2013. 12:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Make Macro Extremes Work For You [View article]
    and funny how it would have saved a LOT of aggravation if they had bent the rules then and saved Lehman brothers.

    But no, $300 -$600 million was too much trouble....

    now it is $85 BN PER MONTH ... plus TARP, TALF, etc plus all around the world. equivalent crap..

    they could have saved Lehman and shut it down/unwound trades in an orderly fashion
    Mar 2, 2013. 02:41 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Make Macro Extremes Work For You [View article]
    great article
    Mar 2, 2013. 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hawaii 5-0 Trade [View article]
    Thanks for the comment, the importance of the "system" is more the Hawaii 5-0 score than the trade itself.

    The score is a good indicator of changes in market direction beyond noise.

    Trading it should be done intelligently, and not mechanically.

    Mar 1, 2013. 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hawaii 5-0 Trade [View article]
    Thanks for the independent backtesting!

    I'm glad to see it is profitable, even with relatively simple workings.

    For any active trading "system" one has to torture the data as you say - by that i mean analyse it to find the good entry and exit points, and not rely on some rule that might have worked in one period, but has no guarantee of working the next.

    Thanks for the tip re momentum vector - that is the slowest of the three to adjust.

    In any case, I hope you have found the statistic to be of interest and working with the speed, momentum and position interactions have provided some insights and further avenues of research
    Mar 1, 2013. 11:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Hawaii 5-0 Trade [View article]
    Hi thanks for the test. Your test is long only for the whole period.

    I myself have said that a simple "sell at 5" can be improved on in long only, as is obvious from my article above.

    Importantly, there is no point active trading if you do not consider short only strategies as well.

    Mar 1, 2013. 02:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pullback Begins For The Market [View article]
    Mike, I did:

    That was Feb 3 and independently from other views as i use my own forecasting skills and models to build predictions and check against data/expectations.
    Feb 25, 2013. 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Rudely Reinserts Itself Back Into The Conversation [View article]
    Have you read the Fed's strategy statement?

    You would be wise to as it summarises a clea Taylor rule approach to monetary policy and a "balanced" approach to the twin objectives of full employment and inflation target.

    Your commentary/analsysi might be different from the one above.
    Feb 25, 2013. 07:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment