Michael Pettis

China’s August Data Confirms Both Optimists and Pessimists

CautiousInv, I am not sure China should be looking for new export markets to replace the US. Europe for structural and political reasons cannot absorb anywhere close to the deficit levels of the US and no other market is big enough. At any rate, a continental sized economy, and soon to be the second biggest in the world, should not rely so heavily on foreign consumptionj for its growth.

Alphameister, I wonder if you are old enough to remember the same nonsense that was said during the credit-fueled bubble in Japan in 1988 and 1989. And if you really do look closely at Chinese data you may be one of the few who do who nonetheless accepts retail sales as a measure of consumption growth. For the past five years retail sales have always been higher than GDP growth, and yet consumption as a share of GDP has declined, which at the very least is mathematically curious.