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Michael Riley  

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  • Will The U.S. Suffer Japanese Lost Decades? [View article]
    socialist drivel
    Oct 25, 2013. 03:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ackman sends 52-pager to Herbalife auditor, Ramey says nothing material [View news story]
    Mr Ackman has been very successful in putting people at Herbalife on the record and establishing a case for future criminal charges. I expect to see all kinds of shuffling among managers and insiders and a record outflow of executives over the next 18 months.
    Sep 11, 2013. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • As the Second U.S. Housing Bubble Inflates: Rapidly Escalating Prices [View article]
    i think consumers have a closer connection to the value of the home that they currently own. In Rhode Island there has been an increase in median price of new homes sold yet i see no evidence of price increases in existing homes. In fact we are seeing new lows in home prices and condo prices. It seems like people are holding on and praying that they can either refinance or sell into a rising market neither of which is possible today.
    Jul 30, 2013. 08:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • AmeriServ Financial: 20% Discount To Tangible Book, Bright Long-Term Prospects [View article]
    what is the level of underfunding if any in the pension plan?
    Jul 2, 2013. 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ETF 20 Years And Ivers Riley [View instapost]
    a little blog about my father
    Feb 20, 2013. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disturbing Trend In Growth From January Jobs Report [View article]
    their austerity is higher taxes....something i believe you and krugman espouse .
    Feb 4, 2013. 11:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disturbing Trend In Growth From January Jobs Report [View article]
    I am in Rhode Island where all the money went to pay teachers more money for the same mediocre to terrible outcomes. that was a payback and you would have to be blind or biased not to see that.
    Feb 4, 2013. 11:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Serious Reasons Herbalife Is Headed Higher [View article]
    the clements article was interesting and convincing to a point. I was troubled by the following passage below. Couldn't Mr Clements confirm or deny the cited clause on his own from the company without conjecture or tortured reasoning. This strikes me as deceptive on Clements part. If he could just reveal, in fact ,if that clause existed or exists it would add some weight to this article.

    below is the strange passage and reasoning::

    “We wanted to, but we’d have to sign a distributor agreement. If
    you sign a distributor agreement you agree to a confidentiality stipulation. We obviously could not agree to that. So we did not.” Soooo... why not have one of his team members
    sign up, get on the products, review the support material, go through the training, and simply monitor their experience, and then freely comment on it? And let’s get this straight –
    a business based entirely on the word-of-mouth promotion of its products and opportunity has a clause in their distributor agreement that disallows their distributors to talk about any
    of it? And if there was such a strong prohibition in place preventing ex-Herbalife distributors from even commenting on Herbalife, let alone disparage them, then wouldn’t the authors of all 57 testimonials Ackman presents be in gross violation of that policy?
    Jan 24, 2013. 08:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife, Ackman, Free Markets And A Put Strategy [View article]
    this could end up a giant short squeeze....thats why a straight short sale for me is too risky.....so far the players i have seen involved and the company explanation are very weak....we'll see
    Jan 23, 2013. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife, Ackman, Free Markets And A Put Strategy [View article]
    the puts are specifically chose for a scenario painted by Mr Ackman. A straight short sale would have killed those who like his story...Jan 2014 expiration gives time to let his story play out, protects against "buy ins" and margin calls . shorting puts in Jan 2014 as you suggest is fine if you like HLF and disbelieve Ackman. go right ahead they are appropriately "fat" in my opinion. Good luck.
    Jan 23, 2013. 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife, Ackman, Free Markets And A Put Strategy [View article]
    both the buy put and sale of puts are expiring in Jan 2014
    Jan 23, 2013. 09:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife, Ackman, Free Markets And A Put Strategy [View article]
    i think you are looking at it wrong ,think of a butterfly spread and its payout profile....use zero strike as the lower bound of the butterfly which of course you dont need to purchase.....so the debit is the most you can lose ....5 bucks... that occurs at zero and above 30 at January expiration in 2014. The best outcome is of course the middle strike , in this case 15. If HLF was 15 in January 2014 the Jan 2014 15 strike put would be worthless and the 30 strike put worth 15 dollars. This would provide a profit of $10 (15-5) on a 5 dollar investment or 200%. Lets pick another price say HLF $9 . In January 2014 the 15 puts would be worth $6 and the 30 put would be worth $21. you sell 1 put for 21 and buy 2 for 6(12) . The net credit is $21-$12 or 9 Dollars .On a 5 dollar investment that settles at $9 you would have made 80% on your investment.
    Dec 28, 2012. 09:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife, Ackman, Free Markets And A Put Strategy [View article]
    ?
    Dec 28, 2012. 08:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife, Ackman, Free Markets And A Put Strategy [View article]
    i like his thoughts on HKD as well...for sure he has made mistakes as everyone has...but there is no question this guy and david Einhorn and Warren Buffet are all pretty smart.... i worry that you fall in love with HLF ..just trying to help
    Dec 27, 2012. 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife, Ackman, Free Markets And A Put Strategy [View article]
    these options were originally known as "leaps" Long term Equity AnticiPation Security...now options listed more than 2 years from today are pretty common on most option exchanges
    Dec 27, 2012. 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
47 Comments
29 Likes