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Michael Ross Seeley

 
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  • Prisa Picks Up Another Catalyst [View article]
    Mike, yes, I don't see much downside in doing so. Like you, I think there are more compelling investments currently, but I want to see what happens.
    Apr 16 02:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prisa Picks Up Another Catalyst [View article]
    I let my A shares go, but have held on to the B-shares. When I look back I have rarely sold too late but almost always have wished I have continued to hold. This is an interesting case for sure, but I am interested to know how it will turn out.
    Mar 11 11:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2014 Resolution: Learning To Fall Out Of Love With Investments [View article]
    Mike,
    Thank you for the analysis and commentary. I really enjoy your articles and I appreciate the earlier work you and Lonely did on VIVHY. I exited my stake today (Valentines).
    Mike
    Feb 14 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grupo Prisa's Important Deal [View article]
    Robbie, I saw the same movement but couldn't see any announcements on the Company's investor relations site or any SEC filings.
    Sep 13 04:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grupo Prisa's Important Deal [View article]
    I am looking forward to seeing the terms on the proposed refinancing announced today which appears to be a slam dunk, but at what cost?

    http://bit.ly/145wTvx

    Admittedly, this has been a tough one, and a little better understanding of the macroeconomic landscape in Spain up-front would have been helpful to be sure. When stocks are on the way down, it is tough to know when, or even if, they will turn around, but I have found that buying a basket of similar situations and then not flinching works out, on average. Of course the occasional exceptions are always painfully instructive, but those experiences tend to be valuable. :)
    Jun 14 08:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hewlett-Packard: A LEAPS Opportunity [View article]
    Mike
    Apologize for the late response. I am somewhat embarrassed to say that I took advantage of the share price last spring/summer to close out my LEAPS Call position; not because of any lack of confidence in HP, but because it was up substantially at the time and I was becoming increasingly busy and wasn't keeping up on it. I can't say the nearly $9B write-down on the Autonomy acquisition was encouraging, but I haven't kept current on the Company, but I'll try to take a look at it soon.
    Mike
    Jan 2 08:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Content Is King, Distribution Is Queen: The Case For 3 Media Companies [View article]
    Mike,

    With respect to the possible sale of GVT, although that news is somewhat disappointing given the long-term growth potential of that asset and the market in Brazil, it is logical in that the Brazillian telecom will necessitate a premium, as opposed to the discounts which would inevitably attach to its EU-centric assets. Further, it is likely to be imminently more marketable than Vivendi's ATVI stake. Provided Management extracts a sufficient premium, this may prove to be an effective means of deleavering the Balance Sheet and perhaps, but not necessarily, effectively highlighting the intrinsic value of the remaining assets.
    Jul 20 06:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Content Is King, Distribution Is Queen: The Case For 3 Media Companies [View article]
    Mike,

    I've never looked at CTC Media in depth given I like to steer clear of Russian companies due to the pervasive corruption within which they must operate, but the growth prospects you've alluded to are intriguing. From where did you derive the relative industry growth rates of the Russian and European markets?
    Jul 20 06:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grupo Prisa's Important Deal [View article]
    Mike,

    To you also. The limited trading volume has a very pronounced impact on the market price, to be sure.

    I was fairly pleased by the outcome of the Annual Meeting (that the resolutions passed), the remarks from the Executives (fairly transparent and practical), and the subsequent bond closing.

    Overall, I am quite happy with PRISA's Management and how they are addressing the challenges confronting the Company. [Note, I could do without the challenges, but...]

    Mike
    Jul 13 05:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grupo Prisa's Important Deal [View article]
    Mike,

    Yes. I wish I were a more disinterested observer, but I am very curious to see how the economic situation in Spain plays out. Note PRISA's EBITDA numbers out of LatAm relative to the sales turnover. If there is good news, it is that 85% of remaining EBITDA is derived from LatAm markets, which have the better growth prospects. Further, at least the regulatory environment in Spain appears to be softening, which should provide the Company with greater flexibility in seeking to improve its cost structure while it rides out what is likely to be a very protracted economic downturn.
    Jun 26 08:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivendi: Well Defined Strategy, History of Significant Dividends Make for a Bargain at Current Price [View article]
    Yes, better lucky than good. That said, you saw I similarly purchased Grupo Prisa too early [you may correctly argue that "too early" should be replaced with "at all", but time will tell].
    Jun 7 12:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grupo Prisa's Important Deal [View article]
    I would be curious to learn whether anybody "created" the B-share preferences (virtually for free) by shorting the A-shares and buying the B-shares when the two traded at similar levels last year, and so created a nearly riskless investment. Although, like many of you doubtless, I considered it, my own arrogance/confidence in the long position led me to believe such a course was unnecessary. Also, having never shorted a stock, I was reluctant to attempt to do so.
    Jun 7 12:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grupo Prisa's Important Deal [View article]
    "Europe ends at the Pyrenees"

    The economic environment and credit markets currently prevailing in the Iberian Peninsula raise substantial risk of permanent loss to those of us who may not have appreciated the extent to which conditions in Spain/Portugal/Europe would ultimately deteriorate. As such, the deal which is the subject of this article represents a creative and sound compromise. I applaud Management for their vigilance in safeguarding shareholders' interests while wisely allocating the Company's capital resources.

    The following excerpt is taken from Seth Klarman's "Margin of Safety", and strikes me as particularly applicable.

    "The focus of most investors differs from that of value
    investors. Most investors are primarily oriented toward return,
    how much they can make, and pay little attention to risk, how
    much they can lose.... Value investors, by contrast, have as a primary goal the preservation of their capital. It follows that value investors seek a margin of safety, allowing room for imprecision, bad luck, or
    analytical error in order to avoid sizable losses over time. A
    margin of safety is necessary because valuation is an imprecise
    art, the future is unpredictable, and investors are human and do
    make mistakes. It is adherence to the concept of a margin of
    safety that best distinguishes value investors from all others,
    who are not as concerned about loss."

    I could have as easily quoted Mr. Tilson, but to do so here might be misinterpreted.
    Jun 7 12:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivendi: Undervalued French Media And Telecom Conglomerate [View article]
    Clemens,

    Thank you for the insights. I'm a big fan of your Michael Smith/Terra Nova/KHD articles. That one required 'active' investment vigilance to keep up over the years!
    May 18 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivendi: Well Defined Strategy, History of Significant Dividends Make for a Bargain at Current Price [View article]
    Excellent article Lonely! Wish I had read this a year ago and had been able to spend the intervening time investigating Vivendi. :)
    Apr 27 05:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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