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S&P 500: New Record Highs Imminent
- Fundamental inputs into economy have become exceptionally cheap.
- Persistently low inflation is driven by productivity increases, not a struggling economy.
- Primary threats to economic growth are inflation hawks and politicians.
Phase II Calamity Dooms Ohr's Eye Drops
- Phase II interim data on Ohr's squalamine eye drops demonstrates likely efficacy in wet age-related macular degeneration.
- Despite likely clinical efficacy, the inability to reduce injections into the eye will result in commercial failure of squalamine eye drops.
- With earliest possible FDA approval in late 2018/early 2019, Ohr's squalamine eye drops will be at least 2 years behind Ophthotech’s Fovista.
- Value of Ohr’s squalamine eye drops for wet age-related macular degeneration is $0 or less.
Fishy Business At Pingtan Marine Enterprise
- Pingtan Marine Enterprise is a US-listed Chinese fishing company with $245 million market cap.
- 46 fishing vessels bought from company controlled by the CEO's wife for $410 million cost 8-10 times more than vessels purchased from unrelated parties.
- Numerous transactions involving the CEO, his father, siblings, niece, daughter, cousins, and brothers-in-law. Multiple interest-free, uncollateralized related party transactions that "do not have specific repayment terms.".
- Problematic audits, toxic VIE structure, unresolved legal issues in China, and many other red flags.
- US-listed shares have little or no real claim on Pingtan's economic activity.
Vertex: An Opportunity For Activist Investors
- Sweat chloride levels, not FEV1 improvement, are the best measure of efficacy for Vertex's cystic fibrosis combination therapy of ivacaftor/lumacaftor.
- Improved chloride transport with ivacaftor/lumacaftor is a certainty in delta-F508 homozygotes. FEV1 increases in Phase III studies will most likely be 2.8-3.5%.
- Without prodding, the FDA may delay or obstruct approval of ivacaftor/lumacaftor in delta-F508 homozygotes, heterozygotes, or both.
- Institutional investors and hedge fund managers who own Vertex stock can improve the value of their holdings through social and political action.
Agios: Risk Without Reward
- At $1.3 billion, AGIO is dangerously overvalued for a biotech in phase 1 trials.
- Almost all of AGIO's value resides in pyruvate kinase activator AG-348.
- Most earnings from AG-348 (if any) will not flow to shareholders.
- Current valuation more than prices in success; no upside available.
Aastrom: Mice Scared Me Away
- Aastrom's price has surged due to a positive article from Jason Napodano.
- Images suggest potential technical flaws in preclinical mouse experiments.
- Keep caution on the menu.
- Prana: Right Drug, Wrong Dose
- Prana: Expect Success In Massive Binary Event
- Taro: A Beautiful Ugly Duckling
- Tonix Clinical Trial Will Succeed: 40 Years Of Medical Evidence
- Angie's List: 7.7% 2-Year Bankruptcy Risk Due To Litigation
- R117H Trial Puts Vertex In Scoring Position
- Vertex: A Biotech Value Investment
- MacroGenics: Big Dreams, Good Molecules
- Ophthotech: Visionary Brilliance
- Ambit Biosciences: One-Trick Pony With A Broken Leg
- Freeport-McMoRan: The Storm Before The Calm