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Michael Sacerdote  

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  • A Farewell To Seeking Alpha, And To All Of My Followers [View instapost]
    Thanks for your contributions, Behavioral. I've enjoyed your insights and wish you the absolute best.
    Nov 26, 2014. 01:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Fed Targeting Another Bubble In Stocks? [View article]
    Appreciate the article, but I think you missed the disconnect between the unemployment rate and the labor force participation rate. While the official unemployment rate is indeed under 6%, the number of working people is still about 3 million fewer than the crest of employment prior to the recession. Estimates of a more accurate value for real unemployment vary from source to source but they are overwhelmingly > 7%. The Fed is absolutely correct to engage in monetary stimulus at a time of tame inflation with a huge overhang in the labor market. In fact, the cessation of QE was a catastrophic error: the bond markets were allowing the Fed to monetize trillions of federal debt with impunity--a tremendous boon to those of us who expect to pay for the poor fiscal choices routinely made by the US government. As long as interest rates respond softly to the expansionary monetary policies (which are being significantly counteracted by the effects of new banking regulations), the Fed should continue to pursue ZIRP at the least and, ideally, gentle QE.
    Nov 14, 2014. 02:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best Near-Term ETF Wealth Builder Now, Offering A +15% Gain In A Month And A Half [View article]
    I've loved the articles you've published. Even more than the specifics of any individual discussion, the underlying big ideas have deeply (and profitably) informed my trading. Thanks!
    Oct 29, 2014. 12:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500: New Record Highs Imminent [View article]
    Whenever I haven't received enough floggings at work, I can count on SA to fill the deficit. The marketplace of anonymous opinions certainly voted hard on my "econo-lite." Wincing aside, there's always value in sampling the opinions of the other market players.

    I sense and appreciate your obliquity. Thank you for being ever the gentleman. I hope you've enjoyed the European kabuki as Mario Draghi tiptoes around the ECB whispering "Shhh! Don't scare the bankers!"
    Oct 27, 2014. 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Forever Is What Stocks Want [View article]
    That would be the market for US Treasurys. The 30-year note trades at 2.94%, compared to the long-term average inflation rate of 3.22% since 1913.
    Oct 16, 2014. 08:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Forever Is What Stocks Want [View article]
    Under normal circumstances, QE is most definitely not a free lunch. But it is right now. The markets are telling fiscal and monetary policymakers that they can print money and borrow below the long-term inflation rate with impunity for the time being. Of course, as soon as inflation ticks upward, QE will have to stop.

    The federal debt will never decrease because a democracy where only 20% of the people pay more in lifetime taxes net of entitlements will never control its spending. Someday the cataclysm will arrive and the debt will be reset to zero through a currency crisis. However, it's not coming tomorrow.
    Oct 16, 2014. 02:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • QE Forever Is What Stocks Want [View article]
    "Quantitative easing" is wonderful--don't dismiss it as a gimmick. As long as inflation stays in check, every dollar of QE is a dollar of federal debt that has been retired at zero cost to the taxpayer. With interest rates and inflation this low, the right strategy for the government is to use aggressive QE while simultaneously rolling over the remaining debt into the longest possible maturities.
    Oct 16, 2014. 02:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weighing The Week Ahead: Can Earnings Season Reverse The Stock Market Decline? [View article]
    Awesome essay. One of the best "weighing the week ahead" articles you've put. Thanks.
    Oct 12, 2014. 09:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vertex: An Opportunity For Activist Investors [View article]
    Of course we'll see confirmation in the homozygotes: the drugs work. However, I doubt that the result will be powerful enough for Vertex to be able to demand a much higher price for the combination than for Kalydeco alone. There was significant pushback from payors with Kalydeco in G551D, which is more efficacious than 809/770 will be in delta-F508 homozygotes. Vertex might get a $25,000-$50,000/year premium for the combination (current global average realized revenue per patient with Kalydeco is ~$140,000), but I doubt they could charge double or even close to it. That said, guessing about prices is just guessing, and your guess is as good as mine.
    Oct 1, 2014. 07:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Energous Could Be A Crowded Exit [View article]
    Nice article.

    The company should have raised capital through VCs instead of through an IPO; this type of high-risk, incipient-stage company with more ideas than technology just isn't mature enough for the publicly traded market. I asked a friend at Sequoia if they had vetted the team and he said he was unaware of any interaction with Energous.

    I am convinced that WATT's proposed technology is feasible on a theoretical basis, albeit at a lower efficiency than might be desirable--I'd guess around 1-5% at most. The health risks regarding SAR raised in this article and others are totally overblown and irrelevant. The one potentially serious health risk that the FCC might raise is whether the RF transmissions could interfere with pacemakers, nerve stimulators, insulin pumps, and other indwelling medical devices. (What happens if you have your cell phone in your breast pocket adjacent to your pacemaker? on your belt adjacent to an insulin pump?).

    It's an open question as to whether the FCC will tolerate interference with other non-medical devices, but I tend to think that the interference will almost certainly be a lot less than one might assume from a radially symmetric RF transmission in the range of tens to a few hundred watts. How much interference will occur will largely depend on the quality of the phased array transmitter, which has yet to be unveiled.

    Overall, although there are many legitimate questions about this company, it's not a definite zero. It's certainly too risky for my portfolio and I appreciate the author's analysis, but I think investors should keep an open mind toward Energous.
    Sep 23, 2014. 09:27 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Can We Talk? The Vander Nat Paradox [View article]
    yes, MLMs are legal. So is adultery. That does not make them good or right.
    Jul 4, 2014. 04:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife: Can We Talk? The Vander Nat Paradox [View article]
    There's an abiding myth that there's a distinction between "legitimate" MLMs and pyramid schemes; usually proponents of "legitimate" MLMs go on to cite Avon as an example. This distinction is pure fiction. The structure is inherently abusive. If there is any truth and justice in the world, MLMs should be eradicated with the full force and fury of the law.
    Jul 4, 2014. 02:00 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dominion Resources Black Warrior Trust Grossly Overvalued - 75% Downside, 90% Of Wells May Be Losing Money [View article]
    This is a fantastic article. Nicely done.
    Jun 30, 2014. 09:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Phase II Calamity Dooms Ohr's Eye Drops [View article]
    You make illegitimate comparisons, like comparing 38-week data for squalamine+Lucentis against 24-week data for Fovista+Lucentis.

    I've taken the high road here. There's enough room for two.
    Jun 29, 2014. 01:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Phase II Calamity Dooms Ohr's Eye Drops [View article]
    Actually, I got the numbers right as you can see in the figure I copied from Ohr's data release. I used Ohr's 24 week value to have an apples-to-apples comparison with Fovista's 24-week data.

    You spew a lot of poison. How about chilling out on a Saturday night?
    Jun 28, 2014. 11:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment