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Michael Vellucci

 
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  • Credit Acceptance Corp. Is Overvalued And Riddled With Risk [View article]
    2009 was not their trough year, 2007-2008 was. 2009 looked great because it was coming off such a low number in 2008.

    The credit crunch and financial troubles preceded (and likely fueled) the Great Recession that was felt by the wider business landscape. Financial companies had their worst years just before 2009.

    Once 2009 came around, CACC had already taken their lumps over the previous few years, and was then able to capitalize on the cheap interest rate environment.
    Oct 15 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Active Network: Strong Growth With Plenty Of Runway [View article]
    Several seeking alpha readers who likely had short positions wrote very offensive private messages to me for recommending this stock. Like any investor, I am not always going to be correct, but I did my research, and this time, I was correct:

    http://nyti.ms/1eTP53R;

    An offer price of $14.50 a share, roughly 6 weeks after I recommended the stock when it was trading in the mid 9s. Just saying.
    Sep 30 08:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Active Network: Strong Growth With Plenty Of Runway [View article]
    If you'd like an explanation of the Company's accounting policies, I'd suggest you read their 10-K or contact their auditor.

    I do not work for the Company or have any direct or indirect benefit from its success. The article merely represents my view point from my personal research and analysis.
    Aug 27 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OpenTable Has An Impressive History, But Is Overpriced [View article]
    I'm not sure exactly which analysis you are referring to.

    After thinking about it more, I think the Facebook partnership (and subsequent stock pop) makes the short position more interesting. When was the last time you or your friends looked for a restaurant on Facebook? And if so, would you then dig through Facebook's menus to book a restaurant reservation? It seems to be non-core to what Facebook is doing and outside the focus of its users, but that's just me.
    Aug 14 08:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OpenTable Has An Impressive History, But Is Overpriced [View article]
    Facebook announced a partnership with OPEN today. Bad timing for my article (I submitted my article on Friday); however, it doesn't change my negative long term view of the Company.
    Aug 12 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Allegheny Technologies: Challenged In 2013, But Poised To Take Off From Aerospace Recovery [View article]
    Thank you - very much appreciate your comments
    Aug 12 12:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OpenTable Has An Impressive History, But Is Overpriced [View article]
    You raise good points. Although I have not seen the data, I would agree with your assumption that churn is very low with restaurants. That said, $1/diner is a relatively high price which may not be sustainable long term. If the average diner spends $25-$35, that would be 3-4% margin given up by the restaurant owner. In such a competitive industry, it may become necessary for owners to leave their comfort zone if attractive alternatives present themselves.
    Aug 12 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look For Crane To Stretch Its Dividend, Growth And Profitability [View article]
    I do not care what "Fast Graphs" says about the Company's growth potential. I care about my analysis of the company.

    You never guess what may happen in the future to a stock? Then why do you invest? Companies are valued on future potential. The past is merely an indicator, the future determines price.

    Obviously there is no such thing as a risk-free investment. That was why I made the comment...
    Aug 5 08:07 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Look For Crane To Stretch Its Dividend, Growth And Profitability [View article]
    My focus is on their growth in profitability and fantastic cash flow, which could lead one to believe that dividends WILL increase in the future. This is a small cap stock - if you are looking for a risk-free investment then yes, this is not for you.
    Aug 4 07:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look For Crane To Stretch Its Dividend, Growth And Profitability [View article]
    Yes, and 0 cuts
    Aug 3 07:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Chipotle's Impressive Quarter A Sign For Other Fast Casual Restaurants? [View article]
    Yes, I was actually thinking about taking a look at Taco Bell vs. Chipotle in a future article.

    Einhorn is one of my favorite investors, but I strongly disagreed with his short on Chipotle at the time and still do. Taco Bell offers a different product to a different demographic.
    Jul 26 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy This MLP For Its Strong Growth Prospects And High Yield [View article]
    Thanks for raising HCLP and SLCA. I will add them to my list to evaluate in a future article.
    Jul 26 09:32 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy This MLP For Its Strong Growth Prospects And High Yield [View article]
    That segment is not as stable as the sand segment because a smaller portion is long term contracts (it sells a lot to jobbers and other customers who service pipelines); however, the benefit is that the customer base is much more diversified in that segment. IE, if it loses a few customers it will not impact the business as much as if it lost one of its two major customers on the sand side.

    Management's intention is to grow and pay out 100% of cash, but they also intend to look at opportunistic acquisitions. Obviously if they undertake an acquisition, cash will be reduced in the short term, but ideally the acquisition should be accretive and boost future cash flows. That said, organic growth seems to still be its #1 priority.
    Jul 24 07:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Chipotle's Impressive Quarter A Sign For Other Fast Casual Restaurants? [View article]
    Actually, very few restaurants get 70%+ ROI for new stores like Chipotle does once their new stores are ramped.
    Jul 20 08:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Chipotle's Impressive Quarter A Sign For Other Fast Casual Restaurants? [View article]
    100% organically and with no price increases to boost the bottom line? I'd say yes, though the comment was moreso directed towards the 18.2% revenue growth.

    Keep in mind that new stores take 1-2 years to ramp up, so all of their new store openings are generating sales but not yet fully ramped to create the incremental profit. You get the sales first, then the excess over fixed costs drops straight down to the bottom line.
    Jul 19 06:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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22 Comments
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