Pervasive Beats Its Numbers and Raises Guidance [View article]
Great write-up Mark. I agree all the parts are moving in the right direction. Some faster than others...
Pervasive's Database revenue, which is their cash cow, had its strongest quarter since last Q3. This is good news considering previously they were not signing new clients, they were just not losing their old ones.
Their Integration product, which is in its 2nd quarter of the PSQL v.11 release, had slightly lower revenue reported than last quarter but that revenue can be found in their deferred revenue. Integration subscriptions make up roughly half of the deferred revenues. Bookings have increased to their highest level and are up 4.5% from last Q3. Twelve month trailing bookings from integration products have increased 11%. Although Japan makes up 10% of total revenue, the latest events that have unfolded there have not stunted revenue. PSQL v.11J will be released to the Japan market in June. Prior to any new release, revenues the quarter before will be weak. Therefore Japan's upgrade cycle in Q4 should make their 10% of revenue increase. If the domestic v.11 upgrade sales are any indication of Japan's market than 70% of PSQL users will want the v.11J version.
Pervasive's DataRush is still too new to be monetized. Now on their 5.0 release, there has not been much bite. Sales are stronger with year to year revenues up 29% but they still have not seen huge demand from an ever ready market. They have dedicated 13% of their sales team to concentrate on getting the word out. On April 27th they will be sponsoring Metamorphosis: The Cloud Integration Summit. Management is confident that with more exposure, data intensive firms will see the benefits of DataRush.
There is also a slightly less noticed product line that should start to see more revenue growth within the next few quarters. Business Xchange which pervasive acquired from Channelinx about 18 months ago has not received much attention because it has been undergoing tremendous development. Now that Pervasive has built Xchange into a stable platform, they are bullish on 2012 growth for this product.
CVD Equipment: Backlog Will Drive Revenue Growth [View article]
I checked my data, you were absolutely right about the backlog number. Thank you for bringing it to my attention. I have since submitted a correction and I'm waiting for it to be published.
Nonetheless, it doesn't change my overall thesis that the trajectory has changed for the better with CVV. Until now, backlogs have been in a double digit decline for five consecutive quarters. To me this is an indication that backlogs are on track to see an increase next quarter, which will be the company's first in seven quarters.
CVD Equipment: Facing A Demand Slowdown [View article]
Using my model and evaluation I firmly believe that my original thesis still holds true. CVV is trading fair at $7.92. In my opinion there's not much premium here. My exact value is $8.53, but no one can be that exact.
I understand the potential for demand is great and the capital structures are in place to handle large orders. However I see no signs that they are coming anytime soon. The company says they were letting backlogs decline to a manageable level. Whether it was voluntary or not, I would like to see an improvement in demand before I can start forecasting future revenue increases to warrant a higher stock price.
CVD Equipment: Facing A Demand Slowdown [View article]
Thanks for the comment InvestorWisdom. I'm sorry you don't agree with my current assessment of CVV. I must not be the only one concerned about its immediate future considering its stock has dropped 16% since Tuesday's earnings results.
I could not agree with you more about graphene's kick ass potential to change the entire industry. My excitement about the opportunities can be found laced throughout my last article, http://seekingalpha.co... .
On the other hand, excitement doesn't produce revenue. This "undiscovered growth play" hasn't shown any new growth. So until I see a substantial increase in backlogs, revenue, or deferred revenue, I'm not convinced the money is pouring into graphene R&D yet.
Keep an eye out for those large IBM orders because you're right, they could change the trajectory.
CVD Equipment: Facing A Demand Slowdown [View article]
Thanks for your numbers 4ron, I'm glad we can agree on the thesis. I don't think we are looking at revenue stream from orders the same way. What are you considering "actual order numbers?"
I would love clarification!
My understanding of how CVV books orders is as follows. 1.)Fully completed purchase orders will show up as revenue. 2.)Partially completed orders can be found in deferred revenue. 3.)POs accepted not in 1 or 2 can be found in backlogs. (no rev yet)
That being said, I would label "new revenue" this quarter as bookings. To calculate bookings I would take the current deferred rev and subtracted out last quarter's deferred rev. Then I would add in current revenue. To me this gives a better picture of how much revenue was generated this quarter and not just spill over from previous deferred revenue.
Undervalued Actuate: The Time to Rediscover It Is Now [View article]
Great comment Thomas. Actuate does not provide specific breakouts of Xenos contribution. The company feels that it is not necessary because Actuate and Xenos are now one unit. To me this is a little sketchy, but not surprising if they are trying to muffle a high premium paid for Xenos. That being said, the Xenos Axess and X2BIRT products are part of the BIRT business model and that model has proven revenue growth. The contribution from Xenos may only be a small piece of the puzzle, but it is a piece that allows the puzzle to be packaged complete.
CVD Equipment: Backlog Will Drive Revenue Growth [View article]
CVD Equipment: Facing A Demand Slowdown [View article]
Pervasive Beats Its Numbers and Raises Guidance [View article]
Pervasive's Database revenue, which is their cash cow, had its strongest quarter since last Q3. This is good news considering previously they were not signing new clients, they were just not losing their old ones.
Their Integration product, which is in its 2nd quarter of the PSQL v.11 release, had slightly lower revenue reported than last quarter but that revenue can be found in their deferred revenue. Integration subscriptions make up roughly half of the deferred revenues. Bookings have increased to their highest level and are up 4.5% from last Q3. Twelve month trailing bookings from integration products have increased 11%. Although Japan makes up 10% of total revenue, the latest events that have unfolded there have not stunted revenue. PSQL v.11J will be released to the Japan market in June. Prior to any new release, revenues the quarter before will be weak. Therefore Japan's upgrade cycle in Q4 should make their 10% of revenue increase. If the domestic v.11 upgrade sales are any indication of Japan's market than 70% of PSQL users will want the v.11J version.
Pervasive's DataRush is still too new to be monetized. Now on their 5.0 release, there has not been much bite. Sales are stronger with year to year revenues up 29% but they still have not seen huge demand from an ever ready market. They have dedicated 13% of their sales team to concentrate on getting the word out. On April 27th they will be sponsoring Metamorphosis: The Cloud Integration Summit. Management is confident that with more exposure, data intensive firms will see the benefits of DataRush.
There is also a slightly less noticed product line that should start to see more revenue growth within the next few quarters. Business Xchange which pervasive acquired from Channelinx about 18 months ago has not received much attention because it has been undergoing tremendous development. Now that Pervasive has built Xchange into a stable platform, they are bullish on 2012 growth for this product.
Overall, things look good for Pervasive.
CVD Equipment: Backlog Will Drive Revenue Growth [View article]
Nonetheless, it doesn't change my overall thesis that the trajectory has changed for the better with CVV. Until now, backlogs have been in a double digit decline for five consecutive quarters. To me this is an indication that backlogs are on track to see an increase next quarter, which will be the company's first in seven quarters.
CVD Equipment: Facing A Demand Slowdown [View article]
CVD Equipment: Facing A Demand Slowdown [View article]
I understand the potential for demand is great and the capital structures are in place to handle large orders. However I see no signs that they are coming anytime soon. The company says they were letting backlogs decline to a manageable level. Whether it was voluntary or not, I would like to see an improvement in demand before I can start forecasting future revenue increases to warrant a higher stock price.
CVD Equipment: Facing A Demand Slowdown [View article]
I could not agree with you more about graphene's kick ass potential to change the entire industry. My excitement about the opportunities can be found laced throughout my last article, http://seekingalpha.co... .
On the other hand, excitement doesn't produce revenue. This "undiscovered growth play" hasn't shown any new growth. So until I see a substantial increase in backlogs, revenue, or deferred revenue, I'm not convinced the money is pouring into graphene R&D yet.
Keep an eye out for those large IBM orders because you're right, they could change the trajectory.
CVD Equipment: Facing A Demand Slowdown [View article]
I don't think we are looking at revenue stream from orders the same way. What are you considering "actual order numbers?"
I would love clarification!
My understanding of how CVV books orders is as follows.
1.)Fully completed purchase orders will show up as revenue.
2.)Partially completed orders can be found in deferred revenue.
3.)POs accepted not in 1 or 2 can be found in backlogs. (no rev yet)
That being said, I would label "new revenue" this quarter as bookings. To calculate bookings I would take the current deferred rev and subtracted out last quarter's deferred rev. Then I would add in current revenue. To me this gives a better picture of how much revenue was generated this quarter and not just spill over from previous deferred revenue.
Undervalued Actuate: The Time to Rediscover It Is Now [View article]
http://seekingalpha.co...
Undervalued Actuate: The Time to Rediscover It Is Now [View article]
Undervalued Actuate: The Time to Rediscover It Is Now [View article]
Undervalued Actuate: The Time to Rediscover It Is Now [View article]