Michael Zhuang

On Market Hitting Bottom

Kinabala,

Your suggestion is well taken.

On Market Hitting Bottom

Hokienerd,

You made a good point and I am fully aware of the Nikkei situation. This article is to make a point about discipline, your pessimistic scenario can be addressed by diversification. You don't assume all countries and all asset classes will be like the Nikkei, do you?

Abundant Opportunities in Bear Markets

Jack Meyer, former manager of Harvard Endowment, left to start a hedge fund called Convexity. Reportedly, the higher the market volatility, the better the return of his fund. This return pattern can actually be created using a pair of ETFs according to this article.

david-swensen.com/2008.../

Long Term Fundamental Value of Stocks Smoother Than Prices

Yale Professor Robert Shiller in his 1982 paper found stock price volatility is not justified by subsequent changes in dividends.

www.david-swensen.com/.../

A Relief Rally, But Is Anyone Really Relieved?

A week ago was when Jim Cramer was yelling "Sell, Sell, Sell" People who know history know that's the reason the market is up nearly 20% from the low. Just kidding ... ;-)

Paying attention to intra-day movements of the market is a sure way to lost your cool and do something stupid. Daniel Kahneman (the guy who invented behavioral finance) observed that long time ago.

investmentscientist.co.../

David Swensen On Keeping It Simple

Here is David Swensen's public equity portfolio, it is indeed very simple.

investmentscientist.co.../

Think of These as Short-Term Troubles

I wonder how the Harvard and Yale endowments did. They did marvelously up til end of June. Harvard had 8.6% and Yale had 4.5%.

investmentscientist.co.../
(Website link to the left)

Can Investor Sentiment Be Rescued?

Of all things to rescue, why investment sentiment? Don't you know the more bearish the sentiment, the higher the future return. This has been studied using the same AAII sentiment data: (Website link to the left)

investmentscientist.co.../

Ignore Stock Market Volatility

Very good advice. In fact, studies (such as this one) shows volatility has little to do with risk. Volatility's impact is more psychological.

Global Markets Performance Roundup: We All Fall Down

Global markets seem to move in lock steps, they have have any diversification benefit like they used to.

The Anatomy of a Bear Market

Brilliant!

Our study of past bear markets pretty much confirms what you said.

Ten Bear Market Phases, Current Edition

Surely Congress is getting into the acts ( to make things worse). Does that portend the end of a bear market?

In any case, here is my research on the duration of bear markets:

investmentscientist.co.../

What Do Fed Rate Cuts Mean for Your Stock Portfolio?

Myron,

Very good point. Kevin Walsh (Fed governor) said:" You've seen one financial crisis, you've seen one financial crisis." History may not repeat itself. One should read history with that caveat in mind.

Michael