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  • Patient Safety Technologies - Better Patient Safety, Even Better Returns [View article]
    Exactly. You're asking a person if they need someone to check their work. Better question is to ask if it's going to happen, regardless of whether they think they need it or not. With reimbursement pressure and the cost of retained sponges, it's going to happen.
    Dec 10, 2013. 09:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patient Safety Technologies - Better Patient Safety, Even Better Returns [View article]
    been holding at 1.6 - once it dropped below it triggered a stop loss. that's why you saw a fire sale down to 1.23, and the partial rebound after.
    Dec 10, 2013. 09:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva Systems: SaaS's Biggest Bubble And Tech's Best Short [View article]
    Can't help you there - we're institutional
    Dec 6, 2013. 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva Systems: SaaS's Biggest Bubble And Tech's Best Short [View article]
    it's shortable now. you need to get a better broker
    Dec 6, 2013. 12:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva Systems: SaaS's Biggest Bubble And Tech's Best Short [View article]
    Well looks like it came out a bit lighter than you modeled, which is good. But to my point (and Craig Tess), it's hard to short, no matter how good the thesis is, into a very light consensus. We're all long term investors who can stomach short term moves, but if we see something as obvious as what just happened this quarter, it's better to wait it out slightly. Will see how tomorrow moves and possibly begin to build a position.
    Dec 5, 2013. 08:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva Systems: SaaS's Biggest Bubble And Tech's Best Short [View article]
    Thanks for the reply. Since this is a short we're a bit more worried about the 1.5% q/q number - seems like an easy expectation to beat, which would pop the stock up further.

    Need to also assume there has been some selling pressure in the last few days (due to this good article) and that a beat might drive the longs and momentum guys back in. It's great to have a long term short idea (which we agree with you on) on a recent IPO that will face TAM constraints, valuation, and the inevitable pull back in multiples in the SaaS world, but we don't want to be in this for a week and get hit with a 15% loss right off the bat. Would rather wait until after the quarter, even if our basis is lower, since this is a longer term play down to 8.
    Dec 5, 2013. 03:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Veeva Systems: SaaS's Biggest Bubble And Tech's Best Short [View article]
    Thoughts on earnings on Thursday?
    Dec 3, 2013. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bon-Ton's Ready-To-Wear Breakout Assessed [View article]
    Management stated on the call that they were seeing tailwinds in cheaper gas prices and colder weather leading to increased traffic, so I'm not sure where you are getting your data. Gas prices fell close to 10% over the quarter.

    That being said, I do agree on the more competitive quarter, and this incoming storm might have some significant impact on sales as well
    Nov 26, 2013. 09:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Textura Has A Huge Moat And Is In The Early Innings Of Tremendous Growth [View article]
    Margins at scale - as TXTR grows (longer term), sales and marketing will come down significantly due to network effects. G&A gains leverage as well, R&D is a maybe.

    Also for insider ownership - you need to look at shares floated vs oustanding. Finviz is only listing floated insider %. Its closer to 40%. Don't believe everything you get off a free website (and even some you get off paid research as well)
    Nov 24, 2013. 05:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Textura misses by $0.05, beats on revenue [View news story]
    Think it's impossible to "miss" when TXTR doesn't give out EPS guidance
    Nov 21, 2013. 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Textura Has A Huge Moat And Is In The Early Innings Of Tremendous Growth [View article]
    Can you explain why the business model cannot scale? We think it can scale incredibly.
    Nov 21, 2013. 05:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patient Safety Technologies - Better Patient Safety, Even Better Returns [View article]
    Haven't asked about insider selling.

    Somewhat list the hospitals that use the product - check out August 8-K. not sure where you are located, but mayo and cleveland are big ones.

    Assumed you mentioned LBMH because I put that one out as well?
    Nov 21, 2013. 01:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patient Safety Technologies - Better Patient Safety, Even Better Returns [View article]
    day lightened up a bit, so i'll try to answer your questions a bit better.

    To get it out of the way - been to conferences, talked to doctors, nurses, hospitals (C-suite), including the honor roll hospitals. Been following this for a while so it's not like we didn't do our due diligence.

    Hospitals love the product - nurses say that they don't like the added time scanning at first but within a week it adds about a minute which they realize isn't a big deal. The buy-in from staff is great - the bigger issue is convincing decision makers to sign on when they are trying to cut budgets.

    Capital raise - if this does happen, it's a 5 million raise at best. Not much dilution there, plus it might be bank financed to begin with since it's a small amount.

    Turd comment - we believe downside is significantly protected because of the recurring revenue stream. Lets say at the absolute worse and grow doesn't happen, they're still selling to their existing customers yearly with 100% renewals. Tune down sales and marketing expense and FCF is yielding close to 10%. So even if this blows up, it's not a zero.

    They own the tech - while we realize that it's not a sexy business with regards to their ability to drive up gross margins and they are susceptible to the whims of the supplier, it's a good relationship so far. We haven't seen pricing pressure, and actually, like I've mentioned before, it's actually a beneficial relationship. They could def switch if they want (they have had some "premium" products with a US manufacturer), but the economics currently work in their favor. Could the supplier turn up pricing and hurt margins? Sure, what people don't realize is that APlus is actually a huge manufacturer to CH and other distributors and has a history of building strong and lasting relationships.

    CH - been disclosed last couple quarters, and I think it's pretty clear on what is going on. Most likely scenario is CH releases it to Medline, and Medline carries the inventory (although at a lower level). Point number 1 is different - it isn't an inventory forward order, but the transition of distributors that hospitals are using. One is an execution issue, the other is an inventory release. Most likely what is going to happen is Q1 is going to come in very low as they release it all at once (one time issue), with growth reaccelerating back in Q2 (with or without HMA). They aren't losing customers, they aren't losing business.

    I don't think there is too much hype - it was hyped a bit during the summer when everyone thought there would be huge growth, but I would argue that we are currently in a trough. With the HMA deal coming online, sell-side coverage picking up, and reimbursement issues becoming more and more significant, I think now is the correct time to get in.

    If you want to look at red flags - I think the bigger issue is that PSTX isn't driving enough S&M expense. In the past they've spent a lot and been able to sign hospitals quickly, but it seems to have slowed down to improve margins.
    Nov 21, 2013. 12:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Patient Safety Technologies - Better Patient Safety, Even Better Returns [View article]
    Will give you a quick rebuttal right now (busy day) and you can come back to me w/ more questions

    1. operating leverage - really looking at sales and marketing expense - as we mentioned before, top line is really moved by large sales wins on the IDNs. They're ramping up sales force and investing in these channels but won't see the appropriate top line contribution until H1 14. Given liquidity, need to get in before it hapens.

    2. company mentioned to us that they would have hit at least 5.5m in revs in Q3 - double digit growth if not for the distributor change. while this isn't sexy, they've mentioned that medline still isn't 100% up to speed with transfer so this should tick up

    3. related party - the supplier was an investor before the agreement. Chinese supplier (normally a concern - we grilled management on this), but mgmt has visited the factory and was impressed. Relationship is actually good - supplier reversed price increases that we saw with cotton and labor prices in china a few years ago when PSTX asked, gave PSTX a longer payment window when they picked up CHS so that PSTX wasn't too cash strapped. Now both investor and board member. Would like to see multiple distributors but this doesn't concern us too much.

    4. Temporary one-time issue - 10m thats coming off cardinal health but most likely going to medline or repurchased by pstx. Mgmt is still working on cardinal health to figure out timing (they were thinking about taking the 10m all at once in Q1 and getting it over with), but currently the wording is 2.5m a quarter. Then there is also some inventory that needs to be still held by both medline and cardinal health as pseudo working cap so it's not the full 10m. We've been working with management to push them to start disclosing bookings numbers for 2014 instead of just only revenue which should mitigate this. This has also been disclosed before so we're adjusting for it in 2014.
    Nov 21, 2013. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberator Medical Supply: The Newest, Defensive, Safe, And Shareholder Friendly Name On The NYSE MKT [View article]
    Liberty medical was sold in 1996...

    edit: sorry, if you are talking about the most recent acquisition - liberty medical was a dying business that went bankrupt within 2 months
    Nov 21, 2013. 09:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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