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Mikael Schlaug

 
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  • When Fundamentals And Technicals Clash [View article]
    Cam,

    Thank you for article.

    I have two comments that are not really discussed in the article. You mentioned the Cook Cumulative Tick, what is the average time between the negative readings and a stock market correction? It's one thing to predict bear markets, its another thing to do so with timing.

    My second comment is regarding the discussion on rate hikes and bear markets. After previous ends of QE-rounds the market has turned sideways/down. Why would this time be different? Yes, the economy is better by many measures, but is it really that good to hold up equity prices?

    What someone has already mentioned in the comment thread is that this is probably investors positioning themselves for a future end of QE/rate hike scenario. I would like to believe that we will continue up for as long as QE is there, but then sideways and down. The trick will be to sell at the right price before that happens and do some good shorts. There is already articles on how cash is piling up at record pace at institutional investors. This is consistent with smart money taking profits and letting ordinary Joe drive the market up a bit further. But will all know how it will end.

    A slightly different dimension, if ECB finally decides on some sort of QE (Buying ABS or something of sorts) and Fed stops QE?
    Aug 5 01:45 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Endeavour International Corporation - Is The Bottom Reached? [View article]
    COBeeMan,

    I think they figured out that they did not have the votes. Since Talisman (and Lone Star, which I also mentioned) have bought at much higher prices I expect they will keep shares until stock rebounds or sell for tax purposes (at the end of year). At least Lone Star mentioned in the letter that they think the stock is worth $10. However, none of them have a significant ownership so I would not be too concerned if they sold.

    Canaccord Genuity has PT of $3 (9th May) and it seems like the stock price has stabilized at around $2. I'm considering increasing my position, my entry is $2.25. However, since it's a micro cap, any news can create volatility.
    May 31 11:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Endeavour International Corporation - Is The Bottom Reached? [View article]
    Well, the cash on the balance sheet end of Q1 was $55 million and forward sale would increase cash by approx $22.5 million, this should cover them for the next 2-3 quarters.

    But you do have a valid point, they have let shareholders down before. I just don't think that liquidity will be an issue for the next 2-3 quarters.
    May 17 12:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Endeavour International Corporation - Is The Bottom Reached? [View article]
    Thanks for commenting.

    Yes, I think you are right in some regards, however, the major difference is that the company is finally producing, granted, there has been some unexpected events, these are not the same as before.

    Q1 was horrible, the one-off item I think we can at least agree on is the settlement of litigation. Operations, as you point out, are out of their hands (almost). The uncertainty that operations has created will be there until operations prove reliable.
    May 17 04:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Endeavour International Corporation - Is The Bottom Reached? [View article]
    Granted the company has had plenty of difficulties in the past, the major change is that it's assets are actually producing now (when online). And yes, they have forward sold a lot of their production, but that is cash now, as opposed to cash later.

    In their Q1 conference call they stated that they would not need more cash injections near-term, however, going forward, if the board was to try to pay down debt and restructure the balance sheet I guess it's not too far off to see that they would try to get more cash injections. However, I do think that this is sort-off priced-in already, my thoughts: the stock price will increase until such notice, and if notice comes that will probably be end of year, not Q2.
    May 17 04:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Endeavour International Corporation - Is The Bottom Reached? [View article]
    Valid point.

    Interestingly Talisman Group Investments, L.L.C., have nominated CEO Jason Taubman Kalisman to the board, in an attempt to take the seat from John B. Connally III. They are backed by Lone Star Value Management, LLC., who issued this letter to shareholders on May 13:

    http://bit.ly/1t05msA

    Endeavour responded May 14 with the following letter:

    http://bit.ly/1t05pod

    ISS recommends that shareholders vote on the nominees put forward by Endeavour, May 15:

    http://bit.ly/1t05poh

    The annual meeting is scheduled for May 22.

    According to Q1 reported holdings, Lonestar had 6 % of the shares. I can't find any information Talismans % of shares.

    At this point, share prices would probably pop if there was a change in board, however, this will be dependent on if Lonestar and Talisman can convince other major holders to vote on Jason Taubman Kalisman.

    End of Q1, approximately 70% of shares were held by institutions.

    http://on-msn.com/1t05pol
    May 17 04:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nuance: Value Trap Until Further Notice [View article]
    This makes me want to buy more stock (got in at 15.19).
    Mar 5 12:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tax Sale Bargain: NetSol Technologies [View article]
    Great read, thank you.
    Dec 30 07:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Get Out Of Yahoo [View article]
    Did a trade, got in at 20, sold at 30-something when Loab got out. In hindsight, a bit to early. Alibaba has always been the main driver behind the stock imo.
    Dec 29 07:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • There Is Value In WPX Energy [View article]
    I didin't really find any detailed information about the hedging, just that they had lower revenues y/y because of favorable derivatives last year. I think it is sensible to think that hedging in the future, if that is practice for some or all of their contracts, may lead to lower revenues in a rising price environment.

    Looking past the hedging bit, they state that they would ramp up production in a rising price environment, so revenues would still rise, only not as much.
    Dec 24 07:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Am Long First Solar [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words, but even I did not expect this kind of return in such a short timeframe.
    Oct 28 07:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • NBG Takes Another Step On The Path To Recovery [View article]
    Thank you, interesting read.
    Sep 17 01:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Adecoagro: A Solid Operator With Argentina And Ethanol Risks [View article]
    I've had this stock on my watchlist since the IPO and it has just been trending downwards from there. I will continue to wait for a better price. As many above point out, paying 6.60 for this stock is not cheap considering all the tailwinds.
    Jul 11 02:21 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Chesapeake With A 36% Discount To Intrinsic Value [View article]
    Dear westelk,

    Thank you for your comment.

    No I did not. It was as you point out, not very clear.
    Jul 10 03:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Chesapeake With A 36% Discount To Intrinsic Value [View article]
    Dear Harry Johnson,

    Thank you for your comment.

    The tailwinds you mention are all valid points and a large part of why there is substantial uncertainty about the future.
    Jul 10 03:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
30 Comments
15 Likes