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Mike Arnold, CFA

 
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Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Overstock.com Offers E-Commerce Upside, Yet Not Receiving Valuation Premiums Of Peers [View article]
    Wayfair updated S-1/A: http://bit.ly/YZICiY

    Raising at 2x sales or so. $2.3 billion valuation. Overstock is super-dee-duper cheap.
    Sep 19 06:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overstock.com Offers E-Commerce Upside, Yet Not Receiving Valuation Premiums Of Peers [View article]
    Not sure. $OSTK is making a push to international markets this and next year.
    Sep 19 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overstock.com Offers E-Commerce Upside, Yet Not Receiving Valuation Premiums Of Peers [View article]
    It's all noise. I think it's worth 1x sales. A lot of room to run.
    Sep 19 05:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overstock.com Offers E-Commerce Upside, Yet Not Receiving Valuation Premiums Of Peers [View article]
    Nice report. The Wayfair IPO should be a nice catalyst -- a pretty solid comp for $OSTK (although not profitable like $OSTK). They raised money at over 2x sales last year I think IPO will get similar price. $OSTK trades at 0.3x EV/Sales. 3x+ bagger potential IMO.
    Sep 19 02:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • VirnetX Is Worth Well Under $1 Per Share [View article]
    I don't follow it.
    Sep 19 10:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vivendi: Flush With Cash And Focused On Media/Content [View article]
    Done deal for $GVT http://bit.ly/YYgooY
    Sep 19 09:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crossroads - A Highly Favorable Asymmetric Reward/Risk Ratio [View article]
    If there is one thing I hope readers have learned over the past several months (SPEX, VRNG, VHC, PRKR) is there should be little, if any, value ascribed to patents.

    I should also disclose that I am a former patent damages practitioner, so I am biased in the matter. Troll(ish) type companies are not good investment vehicles in my opinion.

    And there is no way these guys are getting $600 million for a patent damages award. To think there is any reasonable shot at an award that high is to be suffering from delusions of grandeur.
    Sep 18 09:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VirnetX Is Worth Well Under $1 Per Share [View article]
    Yikes, anytime a company (if you can call it that) holds an emergency "fireside chat" with its most bullish analyst, look out below!

    http://bit.ly/ZrXir3
    Sep 18 02:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Our Court Of Appeals Gone Radical? [View instapost]
    I'm not sure I understand what you mean? Microsoft / Apple have a very different reason for investing in patents than retail investors. They use it as a method to dissuade others from suing them because they have an arsenal to sue in the "mobile wars."

    What is VirnetX actually worth? If you can give me a range that is reasonable, then you make have a good risk/reward estimate. It's clear that no one knows what the patents are worth, so you can't make the case its a good risk/reward.

    And, by the way, SPEX, the owner of the rockstar patents, is getting hammered. Don't you think that someone mispriced the value of those patents??!
    Sep 18 12:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Our Court Of Appeals Gone Radical? [View instapost]
    Like what, GEICO when it traded for a fraction of book value and after he took the train to Washington to meet the CFO over a weekend?
    Sep 17 11:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Our Court Of Appeals Gone Radical? [View instapost]
    I'm implying that buying patent holding companies on the hope of a huge patent damages award is speculation. And in the end, we know what becomes of speculators, they blow up their accounts.
    Sep 17 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Our Court Of Appeals Gone Radical? [View instapost]
    I disagree. I don't mean to sound like a curmudgeon here, but how can you evaluate risk/reward when one has no idea what the reward can be with any reasonable degree of certainty? We know what the risk is -- a zero.

    Do you think Warren Buffett would ever bet on the outcome of a trial which hinges on know-nothing juries assigning patent damages on ridiculous damage theories such as a 25% rule of thumb, or even more laughable, a Nash Bargaining Solution? Let's be honest, the "experts" have no idea what would happen in a real-world scenario if they are basing damage calculations on NBS. They can't even figure out what sales base to calculate damages -- the smallest salable unit, or entire market value of the apparatus?

    Allocating money to these ideas is pure speculation.
    Sep 17 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VirnetX plunges as jury award over Apple is vacated [View news story]
    If it isn't a zero, it will be a fraction of what people think. The entire market value rule and 25% rule of thumbs which serve to inflate reasonable royalties are out the window, so too is a permanent injunction based on Ebay factors.
    Sep 17 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VirnetX plunges as jury award over Apple is vacated [View news story]
    By the way, the Uniloc ruling which deemed the heuristic, the '25% rule of thumb' inadmissible as evidence in a damages case was cited for NBT not being accepted.

    I have no love for academics who are know-nothings about real-life business decisions. Just like I have no love for so-called academics who are anointed market prognosticators but have little basis for opinions.
    Sep 17 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Our Court Of Appeals Gone Radical? [View instapost]
    Why would anyone bet money based on an unknowable outcome in such a complex area such as patent law? Beats me.
    Sep 17 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,698 Comments
574 Likes