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Mike Arnold, CFA

 
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  • Uber raises $1.2B at $17B valuation; GSV Capital rises [View news story]
    It takes away uncertainty from the get from point A to point B problem. Nice to be able to sit at your apartment and get picked up (getting notification via phone) rather than hail a cab from the street corner.
    Jun 10, 2014. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vitacost Remains A Go-Private Candidate [View article]
    no.
    Jun 9, 2014. 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pilgrim Foods Offers A Rich Premium For Hillshire Brands [View article]
    $63 is crazy. Spoke too soon.
    Jun 9, 2014. 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Billabong And Quiksilver - 2 Similar Financial Paths, 2 Different Strategic Paths [View article]
    Nice article, thanks.
    Jun 9, 2014. 09:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GNC: Overly Discounted GARP Investment [View article]
    I agree. Maybe we get 1.25x sales + cash. That would put the takeout price around $525 million, or about $15/share. I'm pretty convinced Mr. Horowitz wants out of the CEO role at 67 years old. He was originally brought on as interim CEO in 2010 -- time to retire. He was aggressively buying in the $5's and $6's in autumn 2011, now owns 13% of the company. Great Hill has been in since early 2010 with about 19% -- we don't know the purchase price because 3 deals were privately negotiated with prior CEO Wayne Gorsek, but shares were trading in the $12's around that time (of course, there were fewer shares o/s then). I think $15/share definitely isn't out of the question.
    Jun 4, 2014. 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should Rosetta Stone Be Taken Private? [View article]
    Your pessimism is actually making me a more confident. Good trade so far, you've done quite well. Kudos. I do hope you have some protection (if you are still short) in case a buyout offer does, indeed, come along. Maybe buy some out of the money calls? At a $145mm EV, this is a bite size buyout for a strategic player.

    I started to get interested in $RST at $11/share (and have been wrong). But I think the E&E biz is worth far more than the entire market cap now. $140 million in recurring, SaaS revenue. The market values those sorts of revenue streams at 3x+. The question is how long will it take the market to recognize it? Ariel Investments is a believer, owns nearly 20% now.
    Jun 3, 2014. 09:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Health Insurance Innovations: Positive Outcome Looks More Likely In This Binary Stock [View article]
    Doing some work on $HIIQ. I like what I am seeing so far - a scalable platform with a large TAM and a clean balance sheet. Nice find.
    Jun 3, 2014. 09:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • TheStreet: How's The New CEO Really Doing? [View article]
    The preferred shares are holding back the common. If they use the cash to retire the preferred, should unlock some value for the common.
    Jun 3, 2014. 07:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Special Situation Investment: Orascom Construction Industries [View article]
    thanks for the updates here, guys.
    Jun 3, 2014. 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GNC: Overly Discounted GARP Investment [View article]
    Indeed. I'm keeping it simple and using 1x sales + cash for my takeout target given some recent comps, including GNC's buyout of A1 Sports last October.

    Would love to see a Hillshire-esque bidding war between GNC, VSI and/or others.

    AGM is on June 5, maybe we will learn more.
    Jun 3, 2014. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GNC: Overly Discounted GARP Investment [View article]
    Indeed. Most all physical retailers got smoked in Q1 due to weather. Another reason why I like eCommerce. One of the slides in the VSI presentation you cited included the eCommerce opportunity. It's a faster growing channel (low double digits) and highly fragmented.

    VITC is a pretty high conviction idea for me as we move along in 2014. I bought nearly a third of the volume today. A lot of small blocks, I think only retail investors are selling here. Most of the float is held by management, the BoD and large private investors/funds.

    By the way, I like GNC here. Hard to see them not growing earnings at a pretty brisk pace on account of their multi-faceted model and exposure to a growth industry.
    Jun 3, 2014. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cannabis Capital Corp: You Can't Make This Up [View article]
    That's an amazing situation. Thanks, Paulo.
    Jun 3, 2014. 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GNC: Overly Discounted GARP Investment [View article]
    Thanks for the detailed analysis Chris. I too think GNC is overly discounted following the tough retail environment in Q1.

    I'm long Vitacost.com as I think there are a number of players that would like to own its 2mm customer base and $100mm quarterly revenue stream. Might make for a nice bolt on acquisition for GNC who is building out its eCommerce platform.
    Jun 3, 2014. 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pilgrim Foods Offers A Rich Premium For Hillshire Brands [View article]
    Wow, I guess this one is worth more to a strategic buyer than a stockholder. http://reut.rs/1pCtL8s
    Jun 3, 2014. 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Grupo Prisa's Important Deal [View article]
    automatically converted. I think the scrip dividend comes in July.
    May 30, 2014. 03:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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