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  • Overstock Continues To Grow, Innovate And Build Its Ecosystem [View article]
    By the way, OSTK is now outgrowing AMZN on a % basis. OSTK turned in 18% sales growth in Q4, AMZN 15%.
    Jan 30, 2015. 01:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overstock Continues To Grow, Innovate And Build Its Ecosystem [View article]
    Yes, good point, remove the name OSTK, and an unnamed biz with those metrics would be priced much higher.
    Jan 30, 2015. 12:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Travelzoo's Growth Plan Isn't Going To Be A Big Deal [View article]
    I agree. These guys need some growth. But ... if they find it ... the stock is cheap. No position.
    Jan 30, 2015. 12:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deteriorating Prospects For Overstock [View article]
    Duane, you make so many categorically false and sensational statements, that I don't know where to begin.

    To start:

    "As my December article predicted, EPS came in well below analysts' estimates."

    Add back one-time $5.5 million charge for patent damages after the quarter's close, and its an EPS beat.

    "When forecasting results for 2015, it is important to take a step back and look at the true absurdity of this company's new ventures. Overstock is currently engaged in dozens of completely unrelated product segments that range from cryptocurrency exchanges to women's underwear, and pet adoptions to property insurance."

    It's absurd you don't understand Overstock is building an ecosystem to create stickier customers.

    "Whether the company realizes it or not, it will lose significant amounts of cash flow on the video streaming. Then again, losing money is something anyone familiar with Overstock is accustomed to."

    12 straight quarters of GAAP profits, 'nuff said.

    "Coinbase is backed by $106mm in funding from the NYSE, various banks and venture capitalists. The exact entities that Overstock's CEO regularly berates on his Twitter and blog."

    Red herring, anyone?

    "Adjusting for Bitcoin sales that were lower than management expected, and continued deterioration of Bitcoin value, shows a currency write-down of $1.45mm that will take place in 2015. As a reference that is 111% of Q4 net income."

    Patently false as I have pointed out previously. Most Bitcoin is immediately converted to dollars using Coinbase.

    "In November 2014, the company announced intentions to engage in a price war with Amazon. As predicted, this caused Q4 margins to contract. Margins decreased by 80bps from 19.0% to 18.2%. This is mainly the result of aggressive cost-cutting and the liquidation of the Bidz.com merchandise."

    Patently false. As I pointed out previously, the announced "price war" is on BOOKS which makes up less than 5% of OSTK total sales. A higher proportion of lower-margin electronics mostly responsible for this small blip in Q4; noise. By the way, cost cutting would improve margins, not decrease them. I think you meant to say aggressive price cutting, but again you don't consider the blip is likely a shift in sales mix.

    "Overstock is spending thousands to develop a second tier exchange platform that, with its delayed start date and lack of adequate funding, will not be a real competitor to Coinbase or other exchanges being developed. Investors should expect a material increase in expenses as the launch date for the Medici exchange approaches."

    Actually, Medici is probably a "single digit millions" sized investment according to Patrick. But ... this is not an exchange for Bitcoin currency trading like the Winklevoss twins and Coinbase are developing ... this idea is for companies to issue and allow for trading of "cryptosecurties" in a P2P format rather than traditional prime broker model with centralized settlement. A disruptive idea ... if it works ... although it is far from certain. As an OSTK investor who looks for asymmetries, this is the perfect example of asymmetry: single digit million sized investments for a potentially massive opportunity.

    Finally, Duane, if you are so certain about your position, why don't you put on a sizable short position? You can borrow my shares. Maybe we can do the transaction via Medici when it is up and running? I'm game if you are.
    Jan 30, 2015. 11:48 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overstock Continues To Grow, Innovate And Build Its Ecosystem [View article]
    I wouldn't worry about Patrick "doing something stupid that blows up the core biz." Not only does the firm have 15 years of experience, but they have a growing ecosystem of loyal customers in its Club O program (me included) and Stormy Simon is a "beautiful operator" according to Patrick. She overhauled the customer service organization and is now running the marketing program.

    Tailrisk is the least of my concerns given secular tailwinds, a business that is consistently spinning off cash and one that is CHEAP.
    Jan 30, 2015. 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overstock Continues To Grow, Innovate And Build Its Ecosystem [View article]
    I respectfully disagree. I've been to SLC to meet Patrick in person. I find that many people who question his judgment rely on crowdthinking and hit piece news articles from the past as their sources for mistrust. It's the consensus opinion to not like Patrick Byrne; in fact, that's another reason I like him -- he stays true to his vision. If people don't like it, don't invest in OSTK. In my opinion, his actions regarding value creation and sticking up for his fellow owners speak louder than words:

    (1) Confronting Wall Street regarding blatant manipulation of the stock in the mid-2000s. A CEO has fiduciary duty to his shareholders in that situation -- in fact, all retail investors should be thankful for his efforts to expose this.

    (2) A Dutch IPO to lower cost of going public.

    (3) Building a $1.5 billion run-rate, profitable (12 straight quarters), pure play eCommerce business. What other eCommerce pure-play has been profitable for 12 straight quarters? Seems like pretty good execution to me.

    (4) Regarding Bitcoin, you have to understand Patrick's history as a "classical liberal" and why he believes in decentralized institutions. Just look at the mess the DTCC caused with stock settlement and that world bankers are causing with the money supply. Yes his language is colorful, but he is a colorful guy.

    Best of luck to you.
    Jan 30, 2015. 10:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overstock Continues To Grow, Innovate And Build Its Ecosystem [View article]
    By the way, I challenge any academic in the audience to explain cogently how the stock market is efficient after OSTK's price action on January 29.
    Jan 30, 2015. 01:20 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Semler Scientific: Licensing FlowChec Is A License To Print Money [View article]
    These guys are HQ'ed up the street from my loft. Maybe I'll go check in on them and see what the story is all about.
    Jan 29, 2015. 10:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overstock Continues To Grow, Innovate And Build Its Ecosystem [View article]
    Great points. Thanks for adding to the discussion in a meaningful way.
    Jan 29, 2015. 07:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Silicon Image Will Add A Quarter To Your Money [View article]
    Nice work... bought by Lattice Semiconductor for $600 million. That is a 37% premium to the price at the date of this article in less than 3 months (over 100% annualized). Again, nice work on this.
    Jan 27, 2015. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Exa Corp., Growth Will Drive Past Expectations [View article]
    thx for this update.
    Jan 26, 2015. 07:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • F5 Shares Spin Out On Weakness In Product Sales [View article]
    Thx for the update, Steven. A lot of interesting things happening in this space due to NFV/SDN.
    Jan 22, 2015. 07:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Radisys to Present at Needham Growth Conference on January 13, 2015 [View article]
    Solid presentation. Looks like the inflection point is near.
    Jan 15, 2015. 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Innovative Food Holdings: The Cheapest Company In FoodTech [View article]
    Nice research note, Ian. Kroger bought Vitacost.com in July 2014 as well, adding to your eCommerce thesis.
    Jan 12, 2015. 01:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SA Contributors Position For 2015 [View article]
    Thanks George. This has been very informative.
    Jan 11, 2015. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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