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Mike Arnold

 
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Latest comments  |  Highest rated
  • A Friendly Rejoinder To 'Tesla: Be Ready For A Massive Crash' [View article]
    why would a explosive growth business have free cash flow when it is reinvesting all the cash in the business to scale it up?
    Aug 13 06:03 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buying A House Is A Terrible Investment [View article]
    I agree with respect to the ongoing costs of owning a home. A home does have certain intangible value and provides stability against rising rents and so forth. That said, I'm not buying now -- maybe in the next crisis. I don't like competing against multiple, same day offers.

    Real estate prices will get crushed with rising interest rates too.

    Dream Unlimited is an interesting play on land/real estate development (commercial/residential) and asset management.
    Jun 15 01:12 PM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Friendly Rejoinder To 'Tesla: Be Ready For A Massive Crash' [View article]
    it's a high growth model BPC. give it time, the operating model might surprise you.
    Aug 13 06:01 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha And David Einhorn: The Real Story [View article]
    Nicely done. Thanks for the note, Eli.
    Mar 24 06:24 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Friendly Rejoinder To 'Tesla: Be Ready For A Massive Crash' [View article]
    why would I need to know anything about UNXL with respect to this column? the point is that there is no relationship whatsoever to tesla.
    Aug 13 05:59 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Stockman Backlash [View article]
    Peter:

    With your increased authorship at Seeking Alpha of late, are we to assume you are making another prescient call on certain future macroeconomic events? I'm getting ready to run for the hills.

    Thanks for your compelling articles.

    Regards,
    Mike
    Apr 4 01:47 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Sell Signs Keep Piling Up [View article]
    "total loss"? That is pretty bold. I doubt the government wants to shut down a biz that contributed $173 million in income tax in 2012 (not all to the US).
    Jan 26 01:47 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Read Seeking Alpha, Consider Investing In TheStreet [View article]
    Thanks for all the comments. I'm only here to present ideas, hopefully all of them, at a minimum, will be thought-provoking to readers. Some may like the ideas, some may not. Consider these columns the starting point for more due diligence, if one decides to take a deeper dive.

    I know I won't be right all the time, but my hope is that the ideas, on the whole, are more right than wrong over the long-term. I also aim to make my writing style a little less technical than others, if only to make the columns entertaining to read. Again, the narratives are to point out ideas, and provide a starting point for further analysis.

    I like studying operating models and, in my opinion, the subscription model is what will drive profits at these digital media companies. It's how newspapers 'used' to make money, supplemented by ad revenue. Quality content can never be free. True, one can read this Seeking Alpha column for "free" but advertisers are paying for your readership. In fact, in exchange for a monthly subscription, I am sure Seeking Alpha would consider providing subscribers a platform devoid of advertisements along the side of the narratives. Seeking Alpha's interesting new programs, including the Alpha Rich series and resultant embargo on top notch ideas is another way to offer differentiation - early access to the best ideas could prove quite valuable. Whereas the NYT, for example, requires readers to pay for all content after 10 articles per month, SA's model to make investors pay for only the best content is interesting because it offers readers a differentiated experience. Why do airlines have a first-class cabin and coach? Everyone is getting to the same place, at the same time. Airlines do it to offer passengers a different experience, and allows for a certain degree of pricing power in an industry that is cut throat on pricing. I think that is what these digital media platforms are doing, and for good reason.

    The real power of digital media is the "platform" from which to broadcast to a wide audience. It's no coincidence that basically all web based start ups today almost always try to describe their web app as a platform; it is because "platforms" are low variable cost, highly scalable operating models. How much does it cost Facebook to service another subscriber? Netflix?

    One can dislike TheStreet's platform or have preconceived notions about its contributors, but the fact remains that they are growing high margin subscription revenue. TheStreet is rolling out new products/services. They do cater to high net worth individuals willing to pay for ideas (as does Seeking Alpha).

    Again, this is just one guy's take. Take it for what its worth. It will be interesting to see how all this plays out. The CEO's track record is quite impressive: she only managed to sell bankrate.com for $560 million after a successful turnaround.

    Successful investing requires investing in killer operating models AND quality people.
    Sep 22 06:09 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crossroads Systems: Valuable IP And Niche Product Could Lead To Significant Upside [View article]
    As a former patent damages practitioner and other recent cases $PRKR et. al., it's clear that CAFC is dialing back patent awards for 'patent trolls.' That isn't to say that $CRDS has not been successful litigating / licensing their IP -- and they are a practicing entity -- but hinging significant value on the potential $82 billion market for the '972 patent family would be aggressive. Still, the idea is interesting, thanks for the good write up.
    Jun 25 04:06 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife Sell Signs Keep Piling Up [View article]
    I'm not quite sure Herbalife and Enron are good comparables. Enron funneled away billions of dollars into special purpose vehicles, hiding losses from investors. Is Herbalife hiding losses, or is it simply a question of the FTC's interpretation of "pyramid scheme." At the end of the day, someone is consuming the product, aren't they?
    Jan 26 05:32 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cirrus Logic: A Bad Call Is A Bad Call [View article]
    Nice piece, AE. Thanks for your candor.
    Jan 30 03:15 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Friendly Rejoinder To 'Tesla: Be Ready For A Massive Crash' [View article]
    No. I don't understand the business. But I do understand that it is not even in the same ballpark as TSLA.
    Aug 13 06:09 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investor AB: A High-Yielding Bet On The Swedish Economy Trading At A Huge Discount To NAV [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I think Asset Value Investors Ltd. owns a stake in Investor AB. There is a lot of value in European closed-end funds and conglomerates. Unfortunately, there isn't much volume that trade OTC in the US.

    Investors should demand extra compensation for bearing illiquidity.
    Jun 22 11:37 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Genie Energy - Is The Genie Finally Coming Out Of The Bottle? [View article]
    How this article wasn't an editor's pick is a mystery to me too.
    Apr 4 02:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Obama Pushes For Home Loans To Consumers With Weak Credit [View article]
    Exactly. I seem to remember politicians extolling the virtues of renting in our new, modern day economy. One where workers shouldn't be encumbered by a mortgage, in case their job gets moved to another part of the country.
    Apr 4 11:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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