haha, yes quite true zuckface. As I said in Marketwatch yesterday- www.marketwatch.com/st..., we never learn our lesson, because we have turned our economy over to politicians who only care about getting elected, instead of leaving it in the hands of business owners.
On Sep 10 07:16 PM zuckface-st0cks wrote:
> this market keeps going up due to the over abundance of fed generated > liquidity. All asset classes are re inflating again like in the 2002-2007 > bull market while the dollar gets annihilated. No lessons were learned, > not surprisingly because every year we elect the same morons and > put up with the same crappy leadership without doing anything about > it.. so here we are... > > good articles4 slow news day: tinyurl.com/phy7j7
How to Hedge Against the Whiplash to Come [View article]
paul- those would be both good long term buys in my opinion
On Sep 07 02:43 PM Paul Harper wrote:
> I happen to agree with your thinking about a > long term bear market & personally, reckon we > are in for a torrid time into 2010. > > Regards FXY, I'm currently looking at pairing up > FXE & UDN for a 4-6 month period.
Inflation is not a good solution to anything. It is symptomatic of much larger problems with an economy. A decrease in consumer spending is actually possitive over the long term...although it will not be good for stocks the rest of the year
How to Hedge Against the Whiplash to Come [View article]
Bill, yes, good point. Investors out there are rightfully skiddish. If people start piling back into equities, a small dip could send stocks crashing this fall as everyone heads for the exits. So people must be preapred for volatility.
On Sep 04 11:13 AM SkiDad wrote:
> Mike, > > Great perspective and greatly appreciated. I would like to add yet > another perspective which supports your "whiplash theory". You have > given a good basis for the irrational exuberance of the ideologues. > This sets the basis for an upside bubble in the worst month of the > year. I believe your use of the word whiplash is very appropriate > from another perspective, namely the average stock holding period. > Today, the average stock holding period for the average investor > is very short compared to before the recession and comparably with > other recessions. That sets the stage for many many fingers on the > sell trigger once people witness the bear market rally undoing. With > all the pundit hype illuminating this possibility, the selloff could > most certainly be a whiplash of 700 points to the downside or greater. > I am buying dips on FAZ (Direxion Financial Bear 3X) > > Thanks for your article, > > Bill Peck
How to Hedge Against the Whiplash to Come [View article]
Agreed, most of the derivatives are still out there. Their value is just being covered up by all of the money infused in the banks. It is a smoke and mirrors game
On Sep 03 01:58 PM goober1 wrote:
> > Mike ,I totally agree with your assessment. Although all other markets > have their problems as well and will manifest due to the worldwide > "easing" policies taking place. Their are a few pockets of value > and security, but everything is so intertwined to the hundreds of > billions of derivatives still floating in the worlds banks unaccounted > for, reality has not been faced yet. Given this, we are living in > an illusion and the world banks are creating another mini bubble > as we speak. It is all quite obvious if one only looks at teh facts. > I did exactly what you suggest 2 months ago and I am glad.
How to Hedge Against the Whiplash to Come [View article]
Yes, "stronger" is a relative term. The expectations game is really what has driven the rally in the summer. Stronger should not be confused with "strong", which is why it is important to look at long term fundamentals.
On Sep 03 12:46 AM Mike Kane wrote:
> Not really. Ideologues make reaches to find the bearish or bullish > news in the market at all times. It is no different than politicans. > They will search for data and spin data that backs up their ideology. > Most managers make money when the market goes up, so they try to > block out all of the negatives in the market and focus on what substantiates > their view. Investors, should be agnostic and see opportunities whether > their is a bullish or bearish envrionment. This is what differentiates > the ideologues from the independent thinkers (i.e. the fundamentalists) > > > On Sep 02 11:54 PM HappyChappy wrote:
How to Hedge Against the Whiplash to Come [View article]
Not really. Ideologues make reaches to find the bearish or bullish news in the market at all times. It is no different than politicans. They will search for data and spin data that backs up their ideology. Most managers make money when the market goes up, so they try to block out all of the negatives in the market and focus on what substantiates their view. Investors, should be agnostic and see opportunities whether their is a bullish or bearish envrionment. This is what differentiates the ideologues from the independent thinkers (i.e. the fundamentalists)
On Sep 02 11:54 PM HappyChappy wrote:
> I don’t understand this “ideologues” vs “ fundamentalists”. The bulls > think they have fundamentals backing their views and same for the > bears. One group will turn out to be right but that doesn’t make > one an ideologue. Or rather if a bull is an ideologue, then so too > is everyone else. I’ve seen Fisher (and other commenters who are > bullish now) present plenty of fundamentals to support their bullish > views. Those are fundamentals, but you just may not agree that they > are important. That doesn’t make you an ideologue either, just someone > who disagrees. But you can disagree. It’s a free country. > > As an aside, isn't "stronger" always a relative term?
How to Hedge Against the Whiplash to Come [View article]
yes I agree, that was not the context of my article. I actually think diversification is a bad way to hedge. I was talking about moving money into markets that might perform better with less risk
On Sep 02 09:31 PM GoMyLittleSheep wrote:
> Methinks you should look up "hedge" in a dictionary. Here's a start: > en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...) > > Diversification is not hedging.
Halamok- yes, lets say you start out with a 20% long SPY position and 10% short SH positiion. You can move the SPY and SH up and down based on your market views. It will take down the volatility in your portfolio, because the SH is not perfectly correlated with SPY. Its similar to how hedge funds look at net and gross exposure. You are correct, you can only use options to accomplish something similar.
Whidbey, good point, but its not necessary to be an active trader to operate a "long/short portfolio". The position can be adjusted every month or so...
Will Regulation Hobble Capitalism? [View article]
The Deficit Rally [View article]
On Sep 10 07:16 PM zuckface-st0cks wrote:
> this market keeps going up due to the over abundance of fed generated
> liquidity. All asset classes are re inflating again like in the 2002-2007
> bull market while the dollar gets annihilated. No lessons were learned,
> not surprisingly because every year we elect the same morons and
> put up with the same crappy leadership without doing anything about
> it.. so here we are...
>
> good articles4 slow news day: tinyurl.com/phy7j7
How to Hedge Against the Whiplash to Come [View article]
On Sep 07 02:43 PM Paul Harper wrote:
> I happen to agree with your thinking about a
> long term bear market & personally, reckon we
> are in for a torrid time into 2010.
>
> Regards FXY, I'm currently looking at pairing up
> FXE & UDN for a 4-6 month period.
The Deficit Rally [View article]
On Sep 10 08:17 AM tripleblack wrote:
> Inadvertent? You are more kind than I...
The Deficit Rally [View article]
How to Hedge Against the Whiplash to Come [View article]
On Sep 04 11:13 AM SkiDad wrote:
> Mike,
>
> Great perspective and greatly appreciated. I would like to add yet
> another perspective which supports your "whiplash theory". You have
> given a good basis for the irrational exuberance of the ideologues.
> This sets the basis for an upside bubble in the worst month of the
> year. I believe your use of the word whiplash is very appropriate
> from another perspective, namely the average stock holding period.
> Today, the average stock holding period for the average investor
> is very short compared to before the recession and comparably with
> other recessions. That sets the stage for many many fingers on the
> sell trigger once people witness the bear market rally undoing. With
> all the pundit hype illuminating this possibility, the selloff could
> most certainly be a whiplash of 700 points to the downside or greater.
> I am buying dips on FAZ (Direxion Financial Bear 3X)
>
> Thanks for your article,
>
> Bill Peck
Bull / Bear Tug of War [View article]
How to Hedge Against the Whiplash to Come [View article]
On Sep 03 01:58 PM goober1 wrote:
>
> Mike ,I totally agree with your assessment. Although all other markets
> have their problems as well and will manifest due to the worldwide
> "easing" policies taking place. Their are a few pockets of value
> and security, but everything is so intertwined to the hundreds of
> billions of derivatives still floating in the worlds banks unaccounted
> for, reality has not been faced yet. Given this, we are living in
> an illusion and the world banks are creating another mini bubble
> as we speak. It is all quite obvious if one only looks at teh facts.
> I did exactly what you suggest 2 months ago and I am glad.
How to Hedge Against the Whiplash to Come [View article]
On Sep 02 11:52 PM Joe Shareholder wrote:
> Here's the best way to hedge,
> joeshareholder.blogspo...
>
>
> Nat gas futures have to go up sometime.
How to Hedge Against the Whiplash to Come [View article]
On Sep 03 12:46 AM Mike Kane wrote:
> Not really. Ideologues make reaches to find the bearish or bullish
> news in the market at all times. It is no different than politicans.
> They will search for data and spin data that backs up their ideology.
> Most managers make money when the market goes up, so they try to
> block out all of the negatives in the market and focus on what substantiates
> their view. Investors, should be agnostic and see opportunities whether
> their is a bullish or bearish envrionment. This is what differentiates
> the ideologues from the independent thinkers (i.e. the fundamentalists)
>
>
> On Sep 02 11:54 PM HappyChappy wrote:
How to Hedge Against the Whiplash to Come [View article]
On Sep 02 11:54 PM HappyChappy wrote:
> I don’t understand this “ideologues” vs “ fundamentalists”. The bulls
> think they have fundamentals backing their views and same for the
> bears. One group will turn out to be right but that doesn’t make
> one an ideologue. Or rather if a bull is an ideologue, then so too
> is everyone else. I’ve seen Fisher (and other commenters who are
> bullish now) present plenty of fundamentals to support their bullish
> views. Those are fundamentals, but you just may not agree that they
> are important. That doesn’t make you an ideologue either, just someone
> who disagrees. But you can disagree. It’s a free country.
>
> As an aside, isn't "stronger" always a relative term?
How to Hedge Against the Whiplash to Come [View article]
On Sep 02 09:31 PM GoMyLittleSheep wrote:
> Methinks you should look up "hedge" in a dictionary. Here's a start:
> en.wikipedia.org/wiki/...)
>
> Diversification is not hedging.
V-Shaped Recovery? Try M-Shaped Meltdown [View article]
V-Shaped Recovery? Try M-Shaped Meltdown [View article]