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Mike Maher  

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  • MarkWest's Drop Ignores DCF Growth [View article]
    A decent sized blip, although given the run up from the 08 lows the units are still well, well ahead (not that I was smart enough to buy at the lows, buy hopefully someone reading this was). The MLPs as a group have taken it on the chin in the last few days, which should be creating some buying opportunities. The MLPs were ahead of themselves with yields of 5%, but as we swing back towards 7-8% there's great value. The yields are sustainable and growing, so I agree that investors should be looking ahead to future growths, and ignoring the volatility that the political climate is causing in the market.
    Nov 13, 2012. 04:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross' (likely accurate) description of the fiscal cliff and its resolution in 140 characters or less: "Deeper than advertised. It's a Grand Canyon. Washington will defer entitlement cuts and raise revenues only marginally." [View news story]
    The cover of Barron's this week has an article about the coming fiscal cliff, with a pretty surprising breakdown of the cost of certain tax breaks. (To read the article google "Barrons Shock Treatment", the graph is on the second page). Letting the Bush tax cuts expire for everyone would raise $161 billion a year. Letting it only expire on incomes above $200k (250 for married) would raise $66 billion. In fact, letting all the tax raises that the "fiscal cliff" has tax hold would raise $500 billion a year. Compare that to the trillion dollar deficit last year, and raising taxes on the rich barely makes a dent.

    The US deficit was over a trillion dollars each year for the last 4 years, but only $161 billion in FY 2007. Clearly the bad economy has raised spending to support the economy, and hurt tax receipts due to slower growth. But the fact remains that only letting the Bush Tax cuts expire on the wealthy does not close the gap. The US needs to collect more money, and spend less money. Its common sense. Sadly, our politicians would rather get reelected to their well paid jobs in Washington than to make real, difficult choices.
    Nov 11, 2012. 11:16 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross' (likely accurate) description of the fiscal cliff and its resolution in 140 characters or less: "Deeper than advertised. It's a Grand Canyon. Washington will defer entitlement cuts and raise revenues only marginally." [View news story]
    Washington politicians unable to make tough choices that would be politically unpopular although very necessary? You don't say...
    Nov 11, 2012. 08:23 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enterprise Product Partners: Stay Patient And Enjoy The Yield [View article]
    I wouldnt be rushing into EPD with the yield below 5%, but I've been in the name since the Teppco merger was announced, so my opinion of price is a bit skewed. EPD isn't the fast growing name out there, but the size gives it ability to do large projects the smaller names cant touch, it has a lower cost of capital, and no IDRs mean that all of the DCF can go to shareholders. Distributions could start to grow quicker in the next year, as a lot of new projects are set to come online by Q3 2012. Still, up here, new money should wait for a pullback, or maybe look at MarkWest (MWE).

    Long EPD, MWE
    Nov 9, 2012. 09:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed launches its 2013 stress tests with a twist: Following the Fed's initial assessment, tested financial institutions will have an opportunity to adjust downward any planned capital distributions before a final decision is made. This should help avoid any nasty, "ABC bank just failed its stress test" scenarios. [View news story]
    That might actually lead banks to be more aggressive with the capital distribution plans, knowing that they can scale the plans back in the Fed says no.
    Nov 9, 2012. 02:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Westport Innovations (WPRT) will be reporting a Q3 loss of $0.46 per share, missing analysts estimates for a loss of $0.38 per share, according to Bloomberg. Revenue for the quarter looks to have come in at $76M, which is also below the Street consensus of $83M. Shares remain halted at this time. [View news story]
    FSYS is getting hammered today after guiding down, WPRT could see the same thing happen
    Nov 8, 2012. 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With Democrats retaining control of the U.S. Senate after Tuesday's election, the way is clear for Ron Wyden, a potential opponent of natural gas exports, to take over as chairman of the Senate Energy and Natural Resources Committee in January. Wyden has expressed concern that large-scale LNG exports would raise domestic gas prices and hurt the economy. (also[View news story]
    So let investors build the export terminals, and let companies sign long term purchase agreements. Companies fail all the time, why should natural gas exports be any different than coal or refined products? Its not the government's job to pick winners and losers in business.
    Nov 7, 2012. 06:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pres. Obama could revive efforts to curb greenhouse gas emissions and more strictly regulate the activities of oil and gas drillers. “It is our bet that that we will witness more stringent regulation and greater friction - permitting challenges, environmental hurdles - in the system in order to appease the winning coalition," energy research firm Simmons & Co. says. [View news story]
    The administration will likely see push back on the state level. PA, for one, is embracing the development of the Marcellus. Ohio is following suit. Don't expect those states to let Obama take away the best economic hope for these regions since the automotive and steel industry's declined.
    Nov 7, 2012. 02:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Speculating Bernanke has taken the lead in exit polls, ZH notes gold has gone vertical in the past few minutes (chart). GLD +2%. SLV +3.1%. Oil is on the move as well, USO +2.6%[View news story]
    Nope, the President appoints the position.

    http://bit.ly/YSSV2R
    Nov 6, 2012. 01:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Tesla Motors (TSLA +7.7%) power to a gain after the automaker's Q3 report doesn't raise anything too alarming to investors. In a letter (.pdf) to shareholders, the company calls the quarter a "fundamental turning point" for the company as it shifts into a higher gear of production. New showrooms and an expanded supercharger network are also in the works. [View news story]
    If you can accurately predict electricity and gasoline prices 6 years out, after subtracting for the higher opportunity cost of buying a Tesla, and the costs to replace those batteries after say 8 years, I think you should be trading futures.

    They've sold a few thousand cars, thats a long way from being sustainable.
    Nov 6, 2012. 12:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Tesla Motors (TSLA +7.7%) power to a gain after the automaker's Q3 report doesn't raise anything too alarming to investors. In a letter (.pdf) to shareholders, the company calls the quarter a "fundamental turning point" for the company as it shifts into a higher gear of production. New showrooms and an expanded supercharger network are also in the works. [View news story]
    You raise a bunch of questions. Isnt that more of a case for natural gas cars? Whats the draw on a Tesla charger? Could that be supported by a generator? How long does it take a Tesla to charge.

    I live in NJ, didn't have power for a week, am in a county where there's gasoline rationing, and never waited on a line for gas. People panicked and waited in lines for no reason, rather than just conserving or car pooling. If you filled up before the power went out, you should have had enough gas to make it until today (everyone I know had off of work at least two days last week because there was no power, and there was no where to drive to, since trees and power lines blocked most of the roads anyway.)

    A backup generator from Generac will run you about $5k to get installed into your home. According to the Tesla website, depending on the volts/amps (type of charger and power source), you can get enough of a charge to go between 5 and 31 miles each hour of charging. So in order to charge my Tesla, in the event of a power outage, I need to have had a $5,000 generator installed to convert the nat gas into electricity to charge my car, which will still take a few hours to charge, and gives me a somewhat limited range? Seems like just keeping a few 5 gallon cans of gas in the garage is a much more practical solution.

    Trust me when I tell you that people in my area are furious at the amount of time its taken to get electric service back. People in my town, that I work with, are still without power at home. More than 250,000 customers of JCP&L just in NJ are without power still, a full week later. This storm is not a positive event for the future of electric cars. I know lots of people who have bought or are ordering generators to prevent this from happening again. But I doubt any of them will double down on their reliance on electricity by buying electric cars.
    Nov 5, 2012. 04:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shares of Tesla Motors (TSLA +7.7%) power to a gain after the automaker's Q3 report doesn't raise anything too alarming to investors. In a letter (.pdf) to shareholders, the company calls the quarter a "fundamental turning point" for the company as it shifts into a higher gear of production. New showrooms and an expanded supercharger network are also in the works. [View news story]
    If the US really want to push for electric cars, the fact the most populated section of the country has been without power for almost a week should be a wake up call that the electric infrastructure needs billions and billions of dollars in upgrades and modernization.
    Nov 5, 2012. 01:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Too much regulation is standing in the way of natural gas development and in turn America's energy future, and removing barriers is just as critical as resolving the fiscal cliff, Jack Welch tells CNBC: "We have a chance in this country to make this the American century. This gas thing is huge. The gas that we have found is in the first inning - it's like the Internet in 1990." [View news story]
    I think he means the opportunity this creates for the US to build new chemical plants, natural gas processing plants, and refineries. Not sure what regulation is standing in the way though, except in NY. PA, Ohio, WV all have active drilling and devlopment of the Marcellus, so the Federal government doesn't seem to be getting in the way onshore. Offshore, is a different matter.
    Nov 5, 2012. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buyback Should Provide Floor In American Capital Agency [View article]
    Boog,

    This is a name that pays a massive dividend, that was formed to pay a massive dividend, and whose shareholders expect it to pay a massive dividend. If you want capital appreciation mREITs are probably not the best place to look.
    Nov 3, 2012. 07:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cirrus Logic (CRUS -11.2%) added to yesterday's big post-earnings losses dramatic fashion: shares are now down 21% from Wednesday's close. Piper's report about ongoing iPhone 5 constraints probably didn't go over well, given Apple is now estimated to make up over 3/4 of Cirrus' sales, and Skyworks' guidance may have also been a concern. Apple image sensor supplier OmniVision (OVTI -3.8%) also had a rough day. (Cirrus results/guidance: I, II, III[View news story]
    CRUS got hit hard like this a few years back, sat low for a while, and then took off. This looks like the same thing all over again.
    Nov 2, 2012. 05:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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