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Mike Maher

 
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  • A big player in the mortgage REIT sector catches an upgrade amidst the sell-off, American Capital Agency (AGNC -3%) being moved to Buy from Hold at Sterne Agee. Shares were down about 8% at the session lows. [View news story]
    This is not an article claiming to provide investment advice, it is a news story explaining that an analyst at an investment bank upgraded the shares. As for the articles, they are written by contributors to Seeking Alpha, not employees. This isnt an investment bank, or advisory service. Its a place for people to discuss ideas.
    Oct 15, 2012. 05:57 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A big player in the mortgage REIT sector catches an upgrade amidst the sell-off, American Capital Agency (AGNC -3%) being moved to Buy from Hold at Sterne Agee. Shares were down about 8% at the session lows. [View news story]
    I dont think the Fed is in the market to lie about which bonds they are buying, especially considering that part of their strategy is trying to be more transparent about rate decisions. Plus mortgage rates are down, so there must be new money moving into the space. From Barron's:

    "Looking instead at mortgage rates, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, which stood at 3.55% immediately pre-QE3, has since fallen to an all-time low 3.36% before ratcheting up a bit to 3.39% last week, according to Freddie Mac's weekly survey numbers."
    Oct 15, 2012. 04:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Marathon Oil (MRO +1.5%) moves higher following a Reuters report it is looking to sell ~100K acres of undeveloped oil and gas properties in the Eagle Ford basin in south Texas. MRO owns ~325K total acres in the area. [View news story]
    Seems odd to be selling land that so many others are producing so well from.
    Oct 15, 2012. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A big player in the mortgage REIT sector catches an upgrade amidst the sell-off, American Capital Agency (AGNC -3%) being moved to Buy from Hold at Sterne Agee. Shares were down about 8% at the session lows. [View news story]
    This is a news feed, so its reporting news on the stock, not offering an opinion. The rest of the site is article puts together by hundreds of different contributors, all with different opinions, experience, and risk levels.

    It takes two people to make a trade, a buyer and a seller, so of course you are going to have different opinions. Also, intelligent people change their opinions as the facts change. The effects of QE 3 are still murky at best, so it makes sense that there is some confusion. That 8% slide is a 2.5% slide now, and since volume has tapered off compared to what it was early, I'll attribute the drop to either funds dumping shares, panic selling, or a little bit of both. Either way I expect a decent bump to book value when they report the quarter, as well as a good deal of insight about the business. AGNC was planning for QE 3, so we'll see how their hedging has held up.
    Oct 15, 2012. 03:42 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liquidation in mortgage REITs picks up where it left off on Friday, with nearly the entire sector lit up bright red. Leading today's decline is CYS Investments (CYS -4.6%) after being cut to hold at Wunderlich. No details are available, but presumably the analysts there read the papers: interest margins are declining and mortgage refinance activity (prepays) is on the rise. [View news story]
    Never saw AGNC tick below $30, but the day's range shows trades as low as $29.63. With the stock $2 higher than that right now, its yet another example of why to only use limit orders when trying to sell.
    Oct 15, 2012. 03:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liquidation in mortgage REITs picks up where it left off on Friday, with nearly the entire sector lit up bright red. Leading today's decline is CYS Investments (CYS -4.6%) after being cut to hold at Wunderlich. No details are available, but presumably the analysts there read the papers: interest margins are declining and mortgage refinance activity (prepays) is on the rise. [View news story]
    Selling looks like theres a little big of panic going on in AGNC. Picked up some calls with it down 7%, I'll wait to see what management says on the earnings call before I decide what to do, but I see book value, which should be above $30, as a floor, and dont expect the dividend to drop below $.90
    Oct 15, 2012. 11:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shell's application for permission to export oil from the U.S. is the latest sign that old dogmas of the energy debate are under threat from reality. The foundational truth of four decades of U.S. energy policy - that America can’t supply itself with oil and natural gas, and certainly can't export them - is suddenly looking to be not so true. "What if all this works": 2022 U.S. production of ~12M bbl/day. [View news story]
    There are 134 operating refineries in the US. The US already enjoys lower oil prices than most of the rest of the world, its a lack of new refineries that keep refined products prices up.

    http://1.usa.gov/P3cbtO
    Oct 14, 2012. 06:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Enough about the 'fiscal cliff.' What about the dividend cliff?" Jason Zweig notes that on Jan. 1, the maximum dividend tax rate will go from 15% to either 18.8% or a heart-fluttering 43.4% - which means some companies expected to pay billions in dividends in the first few days of 2013 could save investors a bundle by moving a little sooner. Don't miss: He harks back to Ben Graham's drastic proposal that all surplus cash go to dividends unless an annual-meeting vote explicitly provides for reinvestment. [View news story]
    I am for a territorial tax system for the US, corporate and individual alike. And that research is for a short term tax amnesty program, not a reform of the system. An amnesty program provides relief for past actions, and has limited impact on the future because it is not designed to influence the future. Allowing US multinationals to repatriate earnings each year, without the threat of being double taxed by changing our tax code is much different than allowing for a one time amnesty.
    Oct 13, 2012. 12:00 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Enough about the 'fiscal cliff.' What about the dividend cliff?" Jason Zweig notes that on Jan. 1, the maximum dividend tax rate will go from 15% to either 18.8% or a heart-fluttering 43.4% - which means some companies expected to pay billions in dividends in the first few days of 2013 could save investors a bundle by moving a little sooner. Don't miss: He harks back to Ben Graham's drastic proposal that all surplus cash go to dividends unless an annual-meeting vote explicitly provides for reinvestment. [View news story]
    The wars are winding down, and the bank bailouts were a one year cost. How does that explain the $1 trillion + deficit each year over the last 4 years? Over the last 12 months, $262 billion has been paid out in dividends. Even if half of that went to the government, a rate that we can likely all agree is too high for the country as a whole, it only reduces the deficit by 10%. We have a spending problem as much as we have a revenue problem.

    If instead, we got rid of our current worldwide tax system, and let US companies bring money back into the US without being taxed twice (as happens in the majority of the developed world), there would be a huge flood of capital into the country, which could be used to pay down debt, pay dividends, build factories, or hire and train workers. The government would see increased tax revenue from new jobs and expanding profits, and the economy might start growing enough to meaningfully drop U-6.


    http://bit.ly/Qw2kZE
    Oct 13, 2012. 09:53 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shell's application for permission to export oil from the U.S. is the latest sign that old dogmas of the energy debate are under threat from reality. The foundational truth of four decades of U.S. energy policy - that America can’t supply itself with oil and natural gas, and certainly can't export them - is suddenly looking to be not so true. "What if all this works": 2022 U.S. production of ~12M bbl/day. [View news story]
    With each well companies gather more information about the best drilling practices. Presentations I've seen from the likes of MHR and CLR point to 40% rates of returns on wells costing $7 million for MHR and between $8-$9 million for CLR and prices of oil at $80. US production is the real deal, contrary to what that Red Queen article claims.
    Oct 13, 2012. 09:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The federal government posts a deficit of $1.089T for fiscal 2012, reports the Treasury, the 4th consecutive year greater than a trillion. This year's deficit is 16% lower than FY2011. [View news story]
    Four more years of deficits like this and we're going to look a lot like Greece. Hopefully November brings a change.
    Oct 12, 2012. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dennis Gartman turns bullish on coal stocks as natural gas prices rise, expecting to see coal prices "move rather nicely, slowly, gently higher. This is not fast money. This is warm money." Stephen Weiss is skeptical, as much of the switching to nat gas was driven by environmental regulations "because coal can’t become clean enough." Coal stocks get a reality check today after analyst downgrades (I, II). [View news story]
    Electricity usage in the US has been falling. Nat gas will benefit from continued switching from coal to gas, but unless theres a switch to nat gas as a transportation fuel, I think prices for both will be trapped around current levels for the next few years, until nat gas export facilities begin to open.
    Oct 12, 2012. 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Workday (WDAY) doesn't disappoint. Shares opened at $48.05 and are currently trading at $48.17, up 72% from a raised IPO price of $28. The gives the company, declared by some to be the future of enterprise-class HR software, a valuation of $7.7B, or 34x trailing sales. (S-1[View news story]
    He's likely been paid with stock options, so of course he's happy the stock is up 70%. If you were an owner of the company yesterday, and just realized you left another 70% on the table, I doubt you are grinning ear to ear today.

    Depending on which CEO it was on TV, he owns 27 million shares, and didnt sell in the IPO. Of course hes happy the stock is up, because on paper hes worth an extra $540 million dollars since the IPO last night. Not a bad day.

    http://bit.ly/TdcMVm
    Oct 12, 2012. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cheaper oil is on its way, the IEA says in projecting lower oil prices over the next five years due to stronger oil supply increases and weaker energy consumption. Pointing to rising output from the U.S., Iraq and Libya, IEA sees increased production of 1.5M bbl/day vs. its previous forecast of 1.3M. But it’s worth noting the agency's patchy forecasting record that often has underestimated demand growth. [View news story]
    And it ignores that OPEC will likely reduce supply as new supply comes online. The Saudis are pumping oil overtime to keep prices stable from Iran being shut out of the market. They will likely cut back on this as Iraq and Libya ramp up.
    Oct 12, 2012. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Workday (WDAY) doesn't disappoint. Shares opened at $48.05 and are currently trading at $48.17, up 72% from a raised IPO price of $28. The gives the company, declared by some to be the future of enterprise-class HR software, a valuation of $7.7B, or 34x trailing sales. (S-1[View news story]
    More like probably trying to make their clients some easy money to make up for FB. Lead manager is Morgan Stanley.....
    Oct 12, 2012. 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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