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Mike Maher

 
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  • Markets Missing The Facts On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    Both those companies are drilling very different rock targeting oil - its not a fair or accurate comparison.
    Dec 5, 2014. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PetroChina, Sinochem to tap Chinese shale gas [View news story]
    They should be buying US shale producers and taking the technology and manpower over there. A lot of cheap companies that could speed that technology transfer.
    Dec 4, 2014. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eclipse Resources: The Impairment Man Cometh [View article]
    Since natural gas is the fuel that tends to generate the marginal supply of electricity the price of electricity is closely tied to the price of ng. Hence the electric generation industry is a leveraged bet on ng. I dont have any position, and they tend to move much less than the commodity itself or the E&Ps, but its just interesting to me that the companies most leveraged to natural gas prices are power generators, and not the E&P themselves.

    http://on.wsj.com/12pYvAX
    http://on.wsj.com/12pYyg7
    Dec 2, 2014. 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Missing The Facts On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    Completely agree about management missing targets, but completely disagree with "catastrophic downside risk" on the preferred. Borrowing base should still increase due to all the new Utica pads, and the $55 million from the MSI sale isnt included in that $89 million in cash. The cap ex budget can come down at the company's discretion, so they're not going to drill themselves into a financial black hole.

    I also disagree that MSI bought out ArcLights ownership interest in Eureka, and then threw MHR $55 million and agreed to carry $60 million in capital costs for "window dressing." The EBITDA multiples for the midstream MLPs in the region from AR and CNX are both in that 20x+ range, so those are the two most similar comparable companies for how to value Eureka.

    Time will tell. Judging by the share performance the market agrees with your rather dire predictions. My argument is that the income statements do not indicate the value that the assets are changing hands for in the market, since companies like SWN, GPOR, and AR are paying $10,000+ an acre for similar leases to MHR. In a month we'll find out if MHR meets targets this year, or fails again. Aside from missing last year, I've seen nothing to indicate they'll miss.
    Dec 2, 2014. 08:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Eclipse Resources: The Impairment Man Cometh [View article]
    Have you ever considered shorting the electric generators if you think NG is going to take a bath? I've read that CPN and DYN have some of the highest sensitivities to NG prices in terms of their EBITDA, and their investor presentations confirm. Just an idea.
    Dec 2, 2014. 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eclipse Resources: The Impairment Man Cometh [View article]
    Based on the metrics of some recent land deals out there (SWN buying CHK acreage, for example) ECR's probably worth somewhere between $5 and $10/share. But the drop in oil prices is going to hit NGL prices. Look at the IRR sensitivities on page 6 of their Nov presentation. At $70 oil their IRRs are not very impressive, likely because they paid a very high price for their acreage compared to their competitors, as you pointed out.

    Congrats on the call here, but I hope for my portfolios sake you're wrong on nat gas prices going much lower!
    Dec 2, 2014. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LyondellBasell downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies [View news story]
    They will see slightly lower ethylene prices as oil comes down, since oil is a feedstock for ethylene in Europe, so,there is a valid concern there. But I agree the reaction is overdone.
    Dec 2, 2014. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Missing The Facts On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    I only listened quickly, but I thought he said he was proceeding as if they were not going to sell the Bakken, not that there were no buyers.

    The drop in the price for the pipeline is confusing, but its only telling part of the story. The presentation doesnt tell you if the size of the equity stake being sold changed, since it leaves the value at ~$1bn. You'll also notice at the amount of capital contributions MHR can defer is increased to $60 million in the new slides vs $40 million from that September press release, so that might explain the drop in the selling price. Who knows - we'll need the company to explain the difference via a press release.

    The new interconnects by year end and the seemingly higher guidance, as well as the change in the MSI deal, are the only new info I noticed in the slides
    Dec 2, 2014. 04:40 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Blackstone to sell IndCorp to Asian venture for $8.1B [View news story]
    Anyone have a sense how this will impact the valuation of that fund and if it will meet benchmarks to trigger higher payouts to the unitholders in BX?
    Dec 1, 2014. 08:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Missing The Facts On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    They also re-added the Kentucky acreage to what's for sale, which I think would have to be bought by EQT, since I'm not sure of anyone else drilling down there.

    Also several slides point out projected year end rates above 32.5k boe/d, slides 4 and 36 to be exact, and slide 45 states they'll have 4 new interconnects done by the end of the month, so they should have some ability to move gas to different hubs depending on where pricing is more favorable.
    Dec 1, 2014. 03:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Blackstone sees value in REITs [View news story]
    I think they'd have to let the CEO stay on in some capacity, but I could see them teaming with him to take it private.
    Dec 1, 2014. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LyondellBasell downgraded to Hold from Buy at Jefferies [View news story]
    I'm expecting that LYB kicks the buyback into overdrive. Its a FCF machine.
    Dec 1, 2014. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Missing The Facts On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    I'd think everything would be on hold given what happened to oil in the last week, but who knows, maybe you get one or two people like Hamm who are willing to pay $90k a flowing barrel and want to take the chance on calling a bottom. I'm not sure what Gary and the BoD will do, I guess it depends on where bids come in and what natural gas does here in the next month or two.
    Dec 1, 2014. 12:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Missing The Facts On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    Two sales are completed, they still have ~3,000 boe/d of production that they are marketing.
    Nov 30, 2014. 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Missing The Facts On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    They were in a disagreement with their auditor and ended up firing their auditor about 18 months ago and that caused them to be late in their filings. The new auditor found that their internal accounting was lacking in some areas, but there were no irregularities. Since they were late in the financial filings, they were prohibited from paying the preferred dividends. The company has greatly improved their accounting practices and hired new people, so that issue is resolved. I have 0 concerns about their ability to pay the preferred dividends or service their debt.
    Nov 29, 2014. 02:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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