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Mike Maher  

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  • Penn Virginia Still Waiting On Credible Takeover Offer [View article]
    The takeover premium is gone from the stock, so betting on the share price here is a bet on oil. They're likely fine for the next 18 months, as they have good hedges and can still sell some midstream assets, but without a meaningful increase in oil after that, things get a little more dire. I don't see oil getting back above $60 here in the US anytime soon, and they somehow botched a sale of the company, so I'm not really inclined to take a large stake in PVA unless something drastically changes.
    Aug 6, 2015. 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enterprise Products sells off again; Wunderlich says Q2 'satisfying' [View news story]
    5.5% yield, closer to 6% if you reinvest the distribution with the company - I'll take that all day.
    Aug 1, 2015. 10:11 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy (-14.5%), LinnCo (-12.9%) piling on second day of losses [View news story]
    And all the board's of director's end up in jail on monopoly and price fixing charges? Seems like a terrible plan
    Jul 31, 2015. 02:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cabot, Antero, And Others Benefit As Appalachian Basis Differentials Disappear [View article]
    Japanese prices are about $7.60 mmbtu on the spot market.

    http://bit.ly/1OMifRN

    And I'm sure that any trading partners that agreed to buy gas at rates higher than now are going to attempt to get out of them. And I'm also sure that the banks that agreed to lend to construct the projects based on the "take or pay" agreements made sure that those contracts are air tight. If the Asian partners could get out of those contracts they would have already.
    Jul 27, 2015. 06:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cabot, Antero, And Others Benefit As Appalachian Basis Differentials Disappear [View article]
    Cabot has had production curtailed for a while, but 500 MMcf/d is a ton to be offline. Im more looking at projections from Range Resources saying they see a declind in gas production starting basically now.

    As for the equities, I've been wrong on the right time to buy for months. I like the Utica names, and think pricing will improve in the next 12 months, but if you arent already in, id wait and see of the stocks act over the next few months before I jumped in.
    Jul 25, 2015. 05:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EQT Corp.: The Dry Gas Utica Is A Diamond - No Longer In The Rough And, As It Turns Out, As Big As The Ritz [View article]
    Great write up Richard. From a practical prospective for midstream operations, think about how large the gathering systems and takeaway projects here going to need to be. If Rice can manage production at 16 MMcfe/d for almost 2 years, and say operators start putting 4 or 6 wells on a pad, we're talking about each new pad adding 64-96 MMcfe/d of dry, pipeline ready gas. Even a 2 Bcf long haul pipe would only be enough for ~20 or 30 pads? And this window looks like it might run from southern Ohio all the way up towards the PA/NY border. Kind of insane to think about.
    Jul 24, 2015. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cabot, Antero, And Others Benefit As Appalachian Basis Differentials Disappear [View article]
    The industrial demand is harder to forecast, since its many more facilities than the handful of LNG projects. Ultra Petroleum has a forecast that industrial use of natural gas will increase about 5 Bcf/d from 2014 levels by 2020. Its a slow, steady build up of new projects coming online, as you said mostly chemical, but fertilizers as well. CNG usage is growing rapidly, but its a small use, and with diesel prices down its cutting away some of the economics to do that.

    To me, the LNG exports and new pipelines being built will have the most impact, since they can have a stair step effect on natural gas demand. Two new pipelines into Mexico have natural gas exports to the country up 1 bcf/d this year, and pipelines that open next year could increase that by another 2 or 3 Bcf/day. On a market that is producing 74 Bcf/d, its crazy that a new one or two projects could eat up 5% of supply the second they open. The power sector is huge as well, since natural gas is increasing becoming more of a baseload fuel source, but again that's a little harder to get a grasp on due to weather fluctuations and the fact that that shift is many projects moving in one direction.
    Jul 24, 2015. 02:08 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cabot, Antero, And Others Benefit As Appalachian Basis Differentials Disappear [View article]
    Peak oil is a joke, and no one even close to the mainstream is preaching peak gas. Production will roll over slightly this year, and then ramp up again when prices rebound.

    Julian Darley, founder of the Post Carbon Institute, wrote a book in 2004 called High Noon for Natural Gas: The New Energy Crisis, which was concerned about a looming natural gas shortage in the US. While that was proper thinking at the time, how did that turn out?
    Jul 24, 2015. 10:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cabot, Antero, And Others Benefit As Appalachian Basis Differentials Disappear [View article]
    So Cheniere charges a fee to liquefy the gas, they arent the producers or owners of the gas. And they have long term take or pay contracts for a huge % of volume, so that should help them out. But I dont have a position either way.
    Jul 24, 2015. 09:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cabot, Antero, And Others Benefit As Appalachian Basis Differentials Disappear [View article]
    EQT just announced the largest well in the Utica's short history. The Utica dry gas section has had maybe 15 wells drilled in the last year, and thats really been it. The edges of the play continue to expand, so I think you are way off base on that.

    As for the Marcellus, operators, including Cabot, are currently curtailing production due to low prices. As new pipelines into New England, Canada, and LNG export terminals open drilling and production will ramp up again.

    Show me data that says theses arent world class shale gas plays.
    Jul 24, 2015. 07:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cabot, Antero, And Others Benefit As Appalachian Basis Differentials Disappear [View article]
    No its not solely for Rex Energy. Its owned by Tallgrass and a lot of companies ship gas on it. Its just a coincidence they have the same name.
    Jul 23, 2015. 09:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Freeport McMoRan +3.3% premarket despite $1.8B loss, 23% revenue drop [View news story]
    The decline in diesel prices is the only thing the company has going for them.
    Jul 23, 2015. 11:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cabot, Antero, And Others Benefit As Appalachian Basis Differentials Disappear [View article]
    Liquids pricing should improve marginally as Mariner East II opens late in 2016, but I'm not sure that will be enough to really help the NGL pricing. MarkWest has been building processing as fast as they can, but are still behind on meeting the demand. There's a lot of talk of new petrochemical development out there, but I don't believe anything has broken ground yet, so those types of users are still a few years away. There were also reports of a company filing for a permit to build a power plant in WV that would run on ethane - which I believe would be the first of its kind in the US. Again, that's more of a 2018 story.

    The uncompleted wells are something to watch. Im of the opinion that they'll put a cap on prices of about $4 for another 18 months. Sabine Pass is a start, but the increase in LNG will really start to be felt over the course of 2016. By 2017 LNG exports, Mexican exports, new power burn from the electric sector and further decreases in Canadian imports should start to see the market here get tighter and support a slightly high price range.
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Cabot, Antero, And Others Benefit As Appalachian Basis Differentials Disappear [View article]
    Yea I'm pretty sure both sites in SC and Georgia are regulated. Either way, the cost to develop a nuclear plant is so, so much higher and takes so much longer than every other technology, I can't believe anyone thinks its a good idea.
    Jul 23, 2015. 10:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Cabot, Antero, And Others Benefit As Appalachian Basis Differentials Disappear [View article]
    Lower natural gas prices should push down electricity prices since natural gas is the marginal fuel, so how it benefits or hurts the power producers will be very fleet specific. However, I wouldn't want to be funding the construction of nuclear baseload in the southeast like some companies are.
    Jul 23, 2015. 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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