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Mike Maher

 
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  • Markets Missing The Facts On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    All of the operators there have had incidents, and since no one was injured, I'm not sure that the Ohio regulators will be as prohibitive as you. MHR is predicting the pad will be online sometime in Jan, so we will know in a month who is right.

    Gas prices are a concern since they've fallen out of bed in the last week, but to assume that they'll remain at this level for the next year is a stretch, especially given that this is 2 days before a holiday, its been unseasonably warm, and they've got a decent amount of gas hedged at higher prices.

    Rice literally closed the IPO of their midstream assets this week, so I dont see why you think Eureka's IPO is unlikely. Also unsure why you think $55 million cash to MHR is immaterial, since you seem to believe there are liquidity concerns. $55 million should cover ~20% of their pref dividends and interest next year, or ~1/2 their cap ex. That seems material to me.
    Dec 23, 2014. 10:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Missing The Facts On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    Now that the new wellhead is on, lets see if any damage was done to the well, and if/when it will be allowed to go to sales, along with the other wells on the pad.
    Dec 23, 2014. 04:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter -7% following Utica well blowout [View news story]
    $MHR new wellhead installed on the Stalder 3UH, all residents allowed to return home
    Dec 23, 2014. 04:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Southwestern's price paid for Chesapeake assets looks rich, analysts say [View news story]
    I actually think they assumed CHK's prior transport agreements, which are fairly expensive. Not sure, it might have been addressed on the call today, I havent had a chance to get to it, but its something to consider.
    Dec 23, 2014. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Southwestern's price paid for Chesapeake assets looks rich, analysts say [View news story]
    They're mixing news stories from Oct 16th, when that fuelfix article was out, and the CC today, which makes it confusing, since the purchase price from the original announcement in Oct was adjusted down. They also had a similar breaking news alert out when the deal was announced saying that analysts thought the deal was too high, and that with those metrics MHR would be valued at $10 a share in a buyout scenario.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Dec 23, 2014. 01:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Report: Oxy Petroleum in talks to buy Permian Basin shale explorer [View news story]
    A price per flowing barrel would be useful. The website says 6,000 Boe/d but thats from December 2013.
    Dec 22, 2014. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Missing The Facts On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    I imagine that time frame is coming from Wild Well Control, not from MHR, so I'm slightly more inclined to believe it. Thanks for the article
    Dec 17, 2014. 09:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Canadian heavy oil drops below US$40 as output surges [View news story]
    The PV of a project with a 40 year time horizon is much more sensitive to changes in oil prices in the early years than it is in later years. If these projects are making losses for the first year or two its going to be very hard to earn a decent rate of return over the life of the project.
    Dec 15, 2014. 11:18 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Triad Hunter Commences Well Control and Safety Operations on the Stalder 3UH Well Following Blowout [View article]
    Not good news, and further reason I think management needs to look at selling
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Missing The Facts On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    Not good news - we'll have to see what happens, but its a negative - no way around it.
    Dec 14, 2014. 11:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Antero Resources Will Lead The E&P Charge When Nat Gas Pricing Turns [View article]
    Great stuff Dallas, definitely a name to watch.
    Dec 11, 2014. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weaker oil prices dim prospects for LNG projects [View news story]
    Most of these projects had locked in pricing in order to get financing. The US projects will get built since the cost of natural gas here is so low. These companies don't make multibillion dollar investment decisions based on today's spot price.
    Dec 11, 2014. 10:50 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Missing The Facts On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    Revenue has been declining this year as realized prices for oil, natural gas, and NGLs have been volatile, and they've been selling some of their oil production throughout the course of the year. Realized natural gas prices were over $5 for the first half of the year vs $3.40 for the Sept quarter.

    I'm currently guesstimating that 2015 revenue comes in at about $300 million, give or take on the upstream, not including midstream or drilling revenue. Revenue guesses aren't really what to watch, the commodity pricing, the midstream IPO, and what people are paying for land in Appalachia are better indications of the value of the company, imo. Revenue may be down with the shift to natural gas, but if you are drilling wells that pay back the investment in a year and have IRRs of 50+% vs IRRs of 20% for oil, I'd rather see them drill the natural gas.
    Dec 10, 2014. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: LNG boom over as China looks to sell out of long-term deals [View news story]
    That's kind of surprising, those are typically longer term contracts, so slowing growth in China leading to Sinopec trying to get out of these contracts seems shortsighted.
    Dec 10, 2014. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams Partners said to threaten land seizures for Constitution Pipeline [View news story]
    We do appraisals for condemnation for highways and expanded roadways fairly often, havent done it for a pipeline, but I imagine its more common in Texas and then midwest.
    Dec 8, 2014. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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