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Mike Maher

 
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  • Weaker oil prices dim prospects for LNG projects [View news story]
    Most of these projects had locked in pricing in order to get financing. The US projects will get built since the cost of natural gas here is so low. These companies don't make multibillion dollar investment decisions based on today's spot price.
    Dec 11, 2014. 10:50 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Missing The Facts On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    Revenue has been declining this year as realized prices for oil, natural gas, and NGLs have been volatile, and they've been selling some of their oil production throughout the course of the year. Realized natural gas prices were over $5 for the first half of the year vs $3.40 for the Sept quarter.

    I'm currently guesstimating that 2015 revenue comes in at about $300 million, give or take on the upstream, not including midstream or drilling revenue. Revenue guesses aren't really what to watch, the commodity pricing, the midstream IPO, and what people are paying for land in Appalachia are better indications of the value of the company, imo. Revenue may be down with the shift to natural gas, but if you are drilling wells that pay back the investment in a year and have IRRs of 50+% vs IRRs of 20% for oil, I'd rather see them drill the natural gas.
    Dec 10, 2014. 02:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Reuters: LNG boom over as China looks to sell out of long-term deals [View news story]
    That's kind of surprising, those are typically longer term contracts, so slowing growth in China leading to Sinopec trying to get out of these contracts seems shortsighted.
    Dec 10, 2014. 12:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams Partners said to threaten land seizures for Constitution Pipeline [View news story]
    We do appraisals for condemnation for highways and expanded roadways fairly often, havent done it for a pipeline, but I imagine its more common in Texas and then midwest.
    Dec 8, 2014. 03:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Denning: Climate improves for E&P acquisitions, including Exxon for BG [View news story]
    Dry gas with 50+% IRR probably looks a lot better than some of those liquids rich plays do given where oil has gone in the last couple months. Antero has a lot of liquids exposure too, and Cabot has some oil as well. IDK not playing either on a takeout, and not in XOM. Just wondering when consolidation in some of these basins kicks into high gear.
    Dec 8, 2014. 01:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3%-down mortgages are back at Frannie [View news story]
    Because this could never possibly go wrong.
    Dec 8, 2014. 01:06 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Williams Partners said to threaten land seizures for Constitution Pipeline [View news story]
    That seems like a risky move - going to court on eminent domain would be a PR nightmare.
    Dec 8, 2014. 12:54 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Denning: Climate improves for E&P acquisitions, including Exxon for BG [View news story]
    XOM would likely need to wait to see if the US government removes the ban on exporting oil in the US before they make a big splash here. However if they were to buy a company like Cabot or Antero they'd cement their status as largest natural gas producer in the country pretty solidly.
    Dec 8, 2014. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter Preferreds: A Double Digit Tax Advantaged Income Stream With Upside [View article]
    The 741,123 shares were sold because of a margin call, theres a note in the SEC filing that states that.
    Dec 6, 2014. 07:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Missing The Facts On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    I dont own the preferred - but the senior bonds at 85 sound interesting - thanks for the heads up.
    Dec 5, 2014. 01:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Missing The Facts On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    Both those companies are drilling very different rock targeting oil - its not a fair or accurate comparison.
    Dec 5, 2014. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PetroChina, Sinochem to tap Chinese shale gas [View news story]
    They should be buying US shale producers and taking the technology and manpower over there. A lot of cheap companies that could speed that technology transfer.
    Dec 4, 2014. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Eclipse Resources: The Impairment Man Cometh [View article]
    Since natural gas is the fuel that tends to generate the marginal supply of electricity the price of electricity is closely tied to the price of ng. Hence the electric generation industry is a leveraged bet on ng. I dont have any position, and they tend to move much less than the commodity itself or the E&Ps, but its just interesting to me that the companies most leveraged to natural gas prices are power generators, and not the E&P themselves.

    http://on.wsj.com/12pYvAX
    http://on.wsj.com/12pYyg7
    Dec 2, 2014. 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Missing The Facts On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    Completely agree about management missing targets, but completely disagree with "catastrophic downside risk" on the preferred. Borrowing base should still increase due to all the new Utica pads, and the $55 million from the MSI sale isnt included in that $89 million in cash. The cap ex budget can come down at the company's discretion, so they're not going to drill themselves into a financial black hole.

    I also disagree that MSI bought out ArcLights ownership interest in Eureka, and then threw MHR $55 million and agreed to carry $60 million in capital costs for "window dressing." The EBITDA multiples for the midstream MLPs in the region from AR and CNX are both in that 20x+ range, so those are the two most similar comparable companies for how to value Eureka.

    Time will tell. Judging by the share performance the market agrees with your rather dire predictions. My argument is that the income statements do not indicate the value that the assets are changing hands for in the market, since companies like SWN, GPOR, and AR are paying $10,000+ an acre for similar leases to MHR. In a month we'll find out if MHR meets targets this year, or fails again. Aside from missing last year, I've seen nothing to indicate they'll miss.
    Dec 2, 2014. 08:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Eclipse Resources: The Impairment Man Cometh [View article]
    Have you ever considered shorting the electric generators if you think NG is going to take a bath? I've read that CPN and DYN have some of the highest sensitivities to NG prices in terms of their EBITDA, and their investor presentations confirm. Just an idea.
    Dec 2, 2014. 08:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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