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Mike Maher  

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  • Magnum Hunter Resources Entering Survival Mode [View article]
    The differentials at Rex are positive, have been so most of the quarter. More interconnections coming online, and there's some more smaller infrastructure coming online this summer that should help. Agree that barring a super hot summer there won't be meaningful improvement til 2016, but even getting prices to stay at the $3.25 to $4 range would add meaningful amounts of cash flow.
    Mar 6, 2015. 10:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter Resources Entering Survival Mode [View article]
    The Marcellus was not drilled in 2000 because we didnt have the technology to drill horizontally, and the play was not yet discovered, not because of abundant supply.

    Lets look at another fact. Production from the Marcellus has increased from 2 Bcf/d in 2010 to over 16 Bcf/d in Feb 2015, even with local prices there often < $2. They can produce at a lower cost than everyone else, hence that basin is producing 8x more gas in 4 years, and places like the Barnett and Haynesville are producing meaningfully less gas over the same time period. The first places discovered (the Barnett and Haynesville) ended up not being as economic as the later discovery, the Marcellus. And the wells Cabot is drilling in PA get better each year, as they perfect the methods used to extract the gas. Will the Utica end up being as prolific as the Marcellus? Its still too early to say, and well costs are still to high to make returns comparable to the best spots Cabot has, but the production rates from the 10 or so Utica dry gas wells drilled indicate that there is a very abundant resource in the ground.

    The Bakken has also seen numerous cost improvements and drilling improvements that have lowered prices, and continued improvements are still happening. But even the longer producing shales, like the Bakken, still only recently had midstream pipe put in the ground to capture natural gas - MHR just completed hooking up their wells in the back half of this year. They also just electrified their wells, lowering costs, and oil pipeline infrastructure continues to improve.

    My point is that no one knows whats in the ground until they put a drill bit there, and that comparing all shales is too over-arching to derive any meaningful data.
    Mar 6, 2015. 10:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter Resources Entering Survival Mode [View article]
    If the best spots are always drilled first why was the Marcellus not drilled in 2000? How did the Permian suddenly become such a renewed hot spot? Assuming the industry drills the best spots first assumes that we know whats underground. We dont. Its called Exploration and Production for a reason - you have to find the best spots - they arent all known. The industry hasnt even proven up the southern edges of the Utica play, or run midstream pipe everywhere, and you think they already know which regions are the best? The play is 3 years old, and the first dry gas wells weren't drilled til 2014 - there's still a lot to learn about the Utica. How far south does it go into WV? How far east into south western PA is it? Is it uniform the 400 miles from Marietta Oh to Shell's Utica well in Tioga County, PA? What about the different payzones Consol and Rexx are both looking at? Best spacing on the wells? Best completion techniques? Best production rates to maximize EURs?

    Comparing all shale players to each other is a waste of time, since different companies are active in different areas, with differing quality of rock and differing capital structures.
    Mar 5, 2015. 10:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orange Capital urges resumption of buybacks at American Capital [View news story]
    You know that from Q3 2011 til the end of Q1 2014 they bought back 101.6 million shares, or 29.4% of shares outstanding, for a total of $1.2 billion, right?
    Mar 5, 2015. 05:26 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Orange Capital urges resumption of buybacks at American Capital [View news story]
    I tend to agree - they should be buying back the stock until it equals book value.
    Mar 5, 2015. 03:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter Resources Entering Survival Mode [View article]
    Magnum Hunter doesn't have any PA acreage or production. Its acreage is in Ohio and WV. Washington County, PA is not Washington County, Ohio.
    Mar 5, 2015. 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Miller Energy +7% as it starts production at two new gas wells [View news story]
    Whoever copied the noted from the PR forgot the "M" in the Mcf/d. No way those well results are economic at 1,650 cf/d

    "The first productive zone flowed in the first well, NF 24-26, is currently producing at rate of approximately 1,650 Mcfd. Once the production rate from that first zone stabilizes, the Company plans to open and sequentially flow-test two additional zones in that well. The second well, NF 42-35, is currently producing at a current rate of approximately 350 Mcfd and also continues to increase as drilling fluids diminish."
    Mar 3, 2015. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Enterprise Products receives FTC request on Oiltanking deal [View news story]
    Mydog,

    The article applies to buying Oiltanking Partners, which owns and operates oil storage tanks, pipelines, import/export terminals. From a quick look at their IR page, and the 10-k, I dont know if they actual own any tankers. From the above mentioned 10-K
    " Oiltanking owns marine terminals located on the Houston Ship Channel and at the Port of Beaumont with a total of 12 ship and barge docks and approximately 26 MMBbls of crude oil and petroleum products storage capacity."
    Their investor presentations:
    http://bit.ly/1wERs5s

    Long EPD
    Mar 2, 2015. 03:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter Resources misses by $0.03, misses on revenue [View news story]
    You obviously know the bond market better than I do, since I don't follow it as dilligently as I probably should. So maybe you're right that the GDP bonds at 50 are a good value, but I have no clue. I agree the $100 mil number will probably trend to $150 mil pretty easily, if not $200. JV has already drifted from March to sometime in Q2, and I've been saying for weeks that the MLP would likely drift into Q3, which it seems it is. Gary will want a full quarter of clean earnings to market the Eureka IPO, so likely they'll take all of Q2s earnings to build the 1 year financials, which means a mid to late Q3 roadshow, so a late Q3 early Q4 IPO. Gary time is whatever he says +3 to 12 months.

    The only thing I'll argue is is that Gary has been running this company on a razor's edge for a couple years - its how he operates, lots and lots of leverage. He's got the ability to continue to raise capital through asset sales. He's not in this to build a long term profitable company, he's in it to drill up the acreage, and sell the thing.
    Mar 2, 2015. 11:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter Resources misses by $0.03, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Agree I'm surprised on the liquidity - just checked, Accounts payable dropped a lot, ~$69 million, assuming that's where the cash went.
    Mar 2, 2015. 10:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter Resources misses by $0.03, misses on revenue [View news story]
    Stalder well results look great, as does the volume through Eureka. Need to listen to the call to get more color on everything else, but a decent looking report.
    Mar 2, 2015. 09:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Enterprise Products Partners faces complaints from export rivals [View news story]
    Show me one acquisition this Justice Department has approved without conditions and then later required asset dispositions. I'll save you some time - there aren't any. In fact I cant think of any acquisition that happened with ever.

    BP hasn't even formally filed a complaint - they're just bitching because their costs went up.
    Feb 25, 2015. 01:56 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • WSJ: Enterprise Products Partners faces complaints from export rivals [View news story]
    The purchase already closed - the Justice Department looked at the sale and didn't see it as giving EPD an unfair advantage.
    Feb 25, 2015. 11:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy makes big cuts to 2015 capex, rig count [View news story]
    The company is forecasting $4- $4.5 billion in 2015 cap ex spending for a 3% increase in production? That doesn't make any sense. They shouldn't have sold the Utica acreage.
    Feb 25, 2015. 10:39 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar, SunPower plan joint YieldCo; shares soar [View news story]
    I mean he appears to be at least half right - FSLR didnt do a a YieldCo by themselves (perhaps because they dont have enough assets, as Johnson suggested) but found a work around by doing it in partnership with another solar company.
    Feb 23, 2015. 11:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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