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Mike Maher  

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  • First Solar, SunPower plan joint YieldCo; shares soar [View news story]
    From Barrons in Oct, an analyst saying Fslr doesnt have enough assets for a Yieldco, might explain why the partnership.
    Feb 23, 2015. 06:32 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • First Solar, SunPower plan joint YieldCo; shares soar [View news story]
    My only question is why they would do this as a joint venture vs each doing their own?
    Feb 23, 2015. 04:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magnum Hunter starts production from new West Virginia wells [View news story]
    That PR was out before the bell Friday. Not sure why its being reported to have affected the price today, but this isnt the only place I'm seeing that. TheStreet is awful for robo-articles, I hope SA doesnt start copying them.
    Feb 23, 2015. 04:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Catch This Falling Knife [View article]
    Yup I use the NGI website - it only updates around 1:15 each day, but its the best free one stop shop I've found.
    Feb 23, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Catch This Falling Knife [View article]
    They get TETCO M2, Dominion S, and TCO Columbia pricing - all currently at a premium to Henry Hub, not at the discount they have been at. Maybe more, they've been adding interconnects with the pipeline system all year.
    Feb 23, 2015. 10:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No bust in sight as North Dakota oil firms maintain staff levels [View news story]
    Cuts are coming, but look at service providers like Hal and Baker Hughes more than the major producers like CLR. Basis differentials mean realized prices in the Bakken are likely closer to $30 than $50, so the E&Ps are going to need to really drive costs down if they want to get their IRRs back to decent levels.
    Feb 4, 2015. 03:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Antero Resources: Begin Accumulating Shares Prior To The Natural Gas Pricing Turn [View article]
    I guess the ground must be getting cold in Texas if you've called for the turn in natural gas! The ground here in NJ is covered in snow and ice, so winter finally showed up here, just a few months late. Nice work, as always.
    Feb 3, 2015. 07:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. rig count plunges another 90 units in ninth straight weekly loss [View news story]

    Those should be in different basins tho, correct? I doubt a Bakken operator is shelving oil rigs but is adding a nat gas rig to meet take or pay obligations. I doubt there are many places outside the Marcellus and Utica where you can drill for ng profitably.
    Jan 30, 2015. 07:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. rig count plunges another 90 units in ninth straight weekly loss [View news story]
    Who is adding gas rigs at these prices? That seems foolish.
    Jan 30, 2015. 02:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deep Value Play Of The Year: Helmerich & Payne [View article]
    A lot of companies are hedged for most of 2015, but that doesnt translate into oilfield services as directly. E&Ps are looking for 30-40% decreases in prices from oilfield service companies. The back half of 2015 is going to see revenues at these companies fall off a cliff. I think there's still a lot of time to short these names.
    Jan 29, 2015. 08:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EIA Natural Gas Inventory [View news story]
    Trading natural gas futures is called the widow makers trade - UGAZ and DGAZ arent really investments, they're trading vehicles, and not the best ones at that. I'd avoid them unless you are a professional.
    Jan 29, 2015. 01:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Looking For A 170% Profit On These Magnum Hunter Preferreds [View article]
    They reworked the debt in Oct or Nov, so that Sept PR is not up to date. MHR isnt going bankrupt, but I'd rather be (and am) in the common, not the preferred. But that was great timing if you got in on the D's Thursday or early Friday
    Jan 24, 2015. 04:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Missing The Facts On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    So a couple of thoughts, with the caveat that I listened to the call in the car today, so I've got to go through it again.

    Firsttracks is right about the time frames with this company - don't believe them, they're almost always late, sometimes by a month, sometimes by 6 or more. Gary basically said on the call that if they had more production on earlier in the year, they would have hedged more. Its a bit of Monday morning quarterback to say that if the wells came on in Nov when gas was above $4 we could have hedged and that woulda helped alot, but its the truth. So I completely agree with taking the dollar value of the JV, and the time frame on the JV, with a grain of salt.

    Now to contradict myself, grain of salt aside, I think they could flip the pipeline pretty quickly and realize a ton of cash. There were rumors previously that EQT offered $1 billion for it and they decided not to sell it. I think any of the recent IPOs for midstream in this region would attempt to bid, as well as EQM, MWE at least.

    The $0 cap ex meant that he was going to cut spending on new projects for at least a couple months - I agree that he was a bit contradictory, but he'll spend money later in the year for sure. The acreage buy was pre-planed, but Im happy they have a very very small acreage budget. Again, that being said, if Gary sees a deal he likes, Im not sure he'll say no.

    We need a quarter at current production levels to get a real feel for how much cash is coming in from the current ~32,500 production. The fact they "couldnt" talk about production or cash levels was sort of strange - but I agree he sounded like he missed production. Didnt get any clarity on realized prices, but Columbia TCO is at $2.80, and Tetco M2 is at $2.08, so the interconnects are very important, as is their ability to move gas.

    Biggest news was the JV, but without any concrete details, I cant judge it. We'll see what it is whenever it gets signed.
    Jan 23, 2015. 05:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Missing The Facts On Magnum Hunter Resources [View article]
    He's likely blocked from buying since they're so close to the earnings release. And he was buying at $5 or $6 last year I think.
    Jan 23, 2015. 05:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Magnum Hunter's Eureka Hunter Pipeline Is No Better Than The Company Itself [View article]
    If there were concerns on the viability of the pipeline or a threat to the IPO I'm not sure an investment bank would have bought half the equity 30 days ago for ~$500 million. I also don't think you'd be saying you may initiate a long position in 72 hours.

    The truth is that the pads companies are putting on in Appalachia are so prolific that one or two 6-10 well pads per year should be enough to continue at least 20% growth in volumes for Eureka. The region is years behind in building pipeline capacity, and Eureka is in a sweet spot.
    Jan 22, 2015. 07:51 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment