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Mike Maher  

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  • Apple beats estimates, but guidance disappoints [View news story]
    They use machines, its not just one guy ;)
    Jan 27, 2014. 04:40 PM | 33 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Keystone pipeline decision delayed again, likely until after November elections [View news story]
    One of the least friendly to business presidents of the last 50 years - no wonder job growth has been so poor.
    Apr 19, 2014. 10:57 AM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Of The Most Challenged Shale Players Are Also The Most Overpriced Ones [View article]
    So several points. As of November 4th, MHR had $84 million in cash on hand, and $47.7 million available on the revolver, for total $136.7 million in liquidity. They are planning on selling the remaining Bakken acreage which will likely see $300-$400 million to the company. That acreage is in a data room and there are active negotiations ongoing. MSI is buying another 6.5% stake in the pipeline in January for $65 mil in cash. And they just signed a new credit facility Oct 22 which doesnt tied to commodity prices, so thats locked in. So there is no liquidity concern.

    Second, Gary indicated on the conference call last week that the 2015 preliminary Cap Ex budget is ~$200 million, so using a trailing 12 month cap ex budget and projecting it forward makes no sense when the projected cap ex budget is 1/2 of this years budget. 2015 cap ex won't have the Bakken drilling or the pipeline construction, so its less of a reduction in Appalachian drilling than the headline numbers indicate.

    Third, production is literally going to increase 75% in the next 45 days, as all the new wells they've been drilling, and the wells that needed to be shut in in order to drill on those pads, get turned to sales. That will have big implications for internal cash flows.

    Fourth, this statement is absurd: "Within the universe of upstream shale operators, assuming fairly uniform distribution of reserves quality (which is, actually, generous to smaller players as bigger firms usually were first to the party and thus have higher-quality acreage)" Bigger first were usually first party and have higher quality acreage? Really? That explains why Shell has had such great shale success in the US, or how XOM top ticked the nat gas market when they bought XTO. Or how Chevron owns acreage just north of MHR, AR surrounds MHR, COG owns land just south, and ECA and GDP own acreage that essentially overlaps in the TMS.

    You can't invest in companies by running a screener. Second article SA has put out on MHR in a month that makes me question if the author understands the industry or even listened to a conference call.
    Nov 14, 2014. 11:46 AM | 25 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: Many Ponzi-Like MLP Blow-Ups To Follow [View article]
    The upstream MLPs are very different from the pipeline MLPs, I'd keep that in mind when telling people to dump all MLPs.
    Jul 5, 2013. 11:44 AM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Has any single human being, either directly or indirectly, cost the United States more money than Osama bin Laden?" Ezra Klein considers the direct effects on the economy from 9/11, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq, enhanced security measures, high oil costs that may have started the credit bubble that led to the financial crisis... "we're talking about many trillions indeed."  [View news story]
    Bin Laden started the credit bubble??? I didn't know he worked for the Fed under Greenspan, allowed investment banks to leverage 30-1, packaged mortgages into securities with poor under writing, and purchased hundreds of thousands of US homes he couldn't afford. Get real.
    May 2, 2011. 05:59 PM | 24 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Of America Has Failed Shareholders [View article]
    I think you are 100% wrong in your analysis that a dividend increase would have been a better way to return capital than the buyback. With shares below book value buybacks are a much, much, much better use of capital than dividends, since buybacks increase the value of all the remaining shares. Its why Berkshire Hathaway only buys back shares with them trading below book, and pays no dividend. As long as the shares trade significantly below BV any company with half a brain is going to buy the shares back, since they are buying for $0.60 something that they have on their books at $1.00, its a fantastic investment.
    Mar 17, 2013. 12:10 PM | 22 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3%-down mortgages are back at Frannie [View news story]
    Because this could never possibly go wrong.
    Dec 8, 2014. 01:06 PM | 20 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Obama administration is considering a plan to tax drivers on the amount of miles they drive. The tax could be enforced by installing equipment in vehicles to track usage, and payments could be made at service stations.  [View news story]
    So in addition to having to pay states to go on toll roads, drivers would have to pay the Federal government to drive as well? Another means for the government to get bigger. I think this will be met with such a backlash from voters that it would never actually get passed.
    May 5, 2011. 05:48 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ethanol makers cheer as EPA punts on renewable fuel mandate decision [View news story]
    The need is votes in the farm belt. Only reason this silly law ever got passed. Making fuel out of the base input in nearly all of our food - sounds like a great idea!!
    Nov 21, 2014. 08:04 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Author Update On MCig And Turn Your Cash Into Vapor [View article]
    Just so I understand this, you are saying that you researched, wrote, and had published a piece that was highly critical of MCig, but did not realize their primary product was a) different from the generic devices you compared it to and B) had only been available for a portion of the most recently filed quarter, until management reached out to you?

    This is why SA should not be publishing anything on stocks with a market cap under $500 mil.
    Mar 25, 2014. 04:08 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • MCig dives; SA author critical of valuation, competitive standing [View news story]
    I feel like this doesn't belong in the "Breaking News" section. SA posted a piece by a person, whom they do not verify is actually a consultant, on basically a microcap stock, which the editors have to know will drive the price down. Then they highlight that SA author called it, and SA moves the market. All his article really says is they only have 1 quarter of revenue, and the valuation based on 1 quarter of revenue is high. Also gives no proof on them not having proprietary tech, or any data on VitaCig, or anything else. SA seems to like being able to influence small stocks, and the fact they're hyping both the long and short side of the "pot stocks" cheapens the site's integrity, to me at least.

    I get you're trying to make money, but the fact the website posted a negative fluff piece on a small cap, and it went down, isnt breaking news, just as its not breaking news that if you post on a small cap and it goes up.
    Mar 24, 2014. 05:46 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources: Valuation Targets Price At $20 [View article]
    Looking at the wrong metrics for this type of investment. How do you write and get published anything on VNR without mentioning cash available for distribution or distribution coverage?
    Oct 9, 2014. 04:17 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AP report: The ethanol push is "an ecological disaster" [View news story]
    Its good for votes from the midwestern states, and thats all anyone in Washington DC cares out. This is what the country gets for electing a bunch a lawyers who have never run anything but a campaign and letting them run the country. We did this to ourselves, electing based on TV commercials and speeches rather than qualifications and political ideals.
    Nov 12, 2013. 08:00 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • White House mulls massive reduction in power emissions [View news story]
    That price for solar is ridiculously low - I'd like to see what the annual price escalations of that contract are. The 30% ITC also likely helps them make that project feasible, but its not very profitable.

    The problem with wind and solar is that, even if they were free to build, maintain, and operate, you still need nuclear, coal, nat gas, and hydro for baseload power. You have to be able to turn things on and off, and no one can make the sun shine or the wind blow.
    May 16, 2014. 10:29 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • "Enough about the 'fiscal cliff.' What about the dividend cliff?" Jason Zweig notes that on Jan. 1, the maximum dividend tax rate will go from 15% to either 18.8% or a heart-fluttering 43.4% - which means some companies expected to pay billions in dividends in the first few days of 2013 could save investors a bundle by moving a little sooner. Don't miss: He harks back to Ben Graham's drastic proposal that all surplus cash go to dividends unless an annual-meeting vote explicitly provides for reinvestment. [View news story]
    The wars are winding down, and the bank bailouts were a one year cost. How does that explain the $1 trillion + deficit each year over the last 4 years? Over the last 12 months, $262 billion has been paid out in dividends. Even if half of that went to the government, a rate that we can likely all agree is too high for the country as a whole, it only reduces the deficit by 10%. We have a spending problem as much as we have a revenue problem.

    If instead, we got rid of our current worldwide tax system, and let US companies bring money back into the US without being taxed twice (as happens in the majority of the developed world), there would be a huge flood of capital into the country, which could be used to pay down debt, pay dividends, build factories, or hire and train workers. The government would see increased tax revenue from new jobs and expanding profits, and the economy might start growing enough to meaningfully drop U-6.


    http://bit.ly/Qw2kZE
    Oct 13, 2012. 09:53 AM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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