Nokia's About To Have A Blockbuster Week [View article]
I agree Sprint should sell the Lumia, but I don't think it's lack of interest on their part. Remember when Sprint stock got whacked when the terms of their buying commitment to Apple was disclosed? Sprint gave Apple a HUGE guarantee to get the iPhone, and they're justifiable concerned that stocking other compelling products could whittle away at that number. I don't think it's a reflection on Nokia- I think Sprint just gave away the farm to the the iPhone. As it stands, they'll hit their AAPL commitment, but if they start promoting a bunch of other products, they might not.
Nokia's About To Have A Blockbuster Week [View article]
Great article. Your mention of the sell-off last September when NOK introduced the 920 was exactly on point, but keep in mind why it happened. Analysts were disappointed in the Sep Lumia 920 launch because Nokia didn't announce an availability date (MSFT hadn't officially launched Windows 8 yet, so they couldn't), and Nokia didn't announcing pricing of the device. Both bases are already covered for the 928. That's not to say there won't be a "sell the news" reaction- I think it's less likely, unless there is a huge spike Monday- but if there is, I think that will be a great buying opportunity.
Exactly right. Wait until Tuesday when Nokia announces the Lumia 928 available to Verizon's 98 million customers. That, combined with the strong sales of the low end Lumia through Wal-Mart, suddenly gives Nokia a very strong story in the US market.
rawilliam, I disagree that "iphone users tend to stick with their iphones." Simply not true. I know several iPhone users who happily switched to other operating systems, including my wife. iPhone was new and hot for a while, but now the bloom is starting to come off the rose. I think both BlackBerry and Windows Phone 8 can each carve out a very solid niche by focusing on their differentiating features. They don't need to own the the market to make a nice profit- and blow away the shorts.
Sprint: Let's Revisit One More Time [View article]
Great article- right on the money, and with a strong track record to back it up. I think there is one small typo, though- I think the author meant "its recent highs above $7" and not "its recent all-time highs above $7." I know, a minor point- but still a good analysis.
Another way to play Sprint is to buy LEAPS. Check out the Jan 2014 in the money calls ($5, $6, even $7) as a longer term play- more premium, but less risky than the May $8 call (which would still be worthless if Softbank raises their bid to $7.75 per share).
The Facebook Phone And Its Implications For The Ecosystem [View article]
Good article. The author hits the key points in the discussion, including the potential risk to Google, and probably minimal risk to Apple. The success of Facebook Home will be in consumer reaction, but it's not likely to have any noticeable impact in the near term. Remember, it took iPhone and Android several years to gain significant marketshare. It's a marathon, not a sprint. That said, it does have the potential to alter the playing field over time.
I like Apple, but I highly doubt Apple can stomp Samsung back to the stone age. You don't seem to realize that Samsung also has pretty deep pockets, and a very broad manufacturing base. This is not some small start-up that's ever going to be intimidated by Apple, particularly in a price war where Apple has the most to lose.
Think Twice Before Betting On Nokia At Current Price - Part 2 [View article]
Another thinly veiled attempt to restate the old, tired arguments. Look at the historical numbers and see how much market share Nokia lost since 2008 is NOT an analysis, nor is it useful.
Focusing only on the rear-view mirror is not a good way to drive. Looking at new products, company execution and future plans is a better way to determine the future direction of the stock. Then again, that doesn't help perma-bears try to conjure up reasons to beat down a stock.
Stratasys: 3D Printing Growth Is Backed Up With Solid Numbers [View article]
Saipan, you completely missed his point. The author suggested selling puts (not buying puts), which allows the investor to collect the premium and enter a long position at a lower price. That's not short-term gambling. Quite the contrary- it's smart investing, by hedging your bet and giving you an opportunity to enter a long position at a lower price.
3 Reasons Why BlackBerry 10's Strong Start Does Not Mean Buy [View article]
Crispin, you're right on point. I've been in the wireless industry for 25 years, and I've seen more product launches than I can count. The success or failure of any product isn't derailed by a one month delay in any market. Yes, there may be a short term blip in one quarter's sales, but that won't make or break BlackBerry-- or any other device.
The success of the product will be determined by customer response. If customers love it, they'll tell their friends and sales will continue to ramp up. If the product is lousy, then launching one month sooner won't make any difference. The product is the key, not the launch date. 2, 6, or 12 months from now, nobody will remember or care about the launch date. What they'll care about is the product. Is it cool? Is it elegant? Is it convenient? Does it do what they want it to do? That's what will determine BlackBerry's success- not a one month delay in one market.
Ulta: Sizzling Growth At A Sizzling Price [View article]
Great article and thorough analysis. As a typical male, I only go to Ulta with my wife- or when shopping for a gift for her. The store I visit is always busy, and I know they're minting money.
I think the key here is the long term view. It's easy to focus on the next crisis in D.C., the fiscal cliff or the sequester or the next jobs report, but over a long term horizon, Ulta today could be like buying GMCR or CMG very early on in a stellar rise. If you held either of those stocks for 8-10 years, you made a killing. ULTA and KORS both have the potential to do the same thing. Neither will be a rocket, but new store openings every quarter, year after year, will pay off big. This is a great stock for patient money (think IRA or 401k).
Nice article. I'm a cautious bull on BlackBerry short term, and more optimistic longer term. Anyone buying- or shorting- BBRY should expect a roller coaster ride, as the stock will charge higher on positive analyst comments, then plummet on negative comments. Savvy traders can use that whiplash to their advantage. A safer course is trading around a core position- buying the dips and selling the rips.
BBRY bulls might also consider buying Jan 2014 calls- but wait until the next time the stock gets hammered to do so. If you buy when it's going up, you'll pay too much premium.
Great article. I agree that NOK has a lot of upside. There will undoubtedly be bumps along the way, but I think buying the dip is a sound strategy- especially at this price. It won't go straight up, but it will be much higher in 2-3 quarters.
Mathias, I think Lumia sales of 8+M per quarter is likely in the next 1-2 quarters (not years). Keep in mind the Lumia 920 started shipping halfway through Q4, and China Mobile devices didn't ship until 2013. I expect to see a very large increase in sales in the next two quarters.
Deep Value, chill out! We get it-- you hate Nokia. No need to keep relentlessly beating that drum. Put your money where your mouth is and short the stock. I'll take the other side of your trade and stay long NOK. Let's compare notes in 12 months and see where it stands. Until then, spare the RC Cola and Betamax analogies- you're not convincing anyone. Nokia is not bankrupt, and it's not going bankrupt.
Nokia's About To Have A Blockbuster Week [View article]
Nokia's About To Have A Blockbuster Week [View article]
Nokia: Should You Give Up? [View article]
Valuing A Triumphant BlackBerry [View article]
Sprint: Let's Revisit One More Time [View article]
Another way to play Sprint is to buy LEAPS. Check out the Jan 2014 in the money calls ($5, $6, even $7) as a longer term play- more premium, but less risky than the May $8 call (which would still be worthless if Softbank raises their bid to $7.75 per share).
The Facebook Phone And Its Implications For The Ecosystem [View article]
Apple: Do You Hear The Crickets? [View article]
Think Twice Before Betting On Nokia At Current Price - Part 2 [View article]
Focusing only on the rear-view mirror is not a good way to drive. Looking at new products, company execution and future plans is a better way to determine the future direction of the stock. Then again, that doesn't help perma-bears try to conjure up reasons to beat down a stock.
Stratasys: 3D Printing Growth Is Backed Up With Solid Numbers [View article]
3 Reasons Why BlackBerry 10's Strong Start Does Not Mean Buy [View article]
The success of the product will be determined by customer response. If customers love it, they'll tell their friends and sales will continue to ramp up. If the product is lousy, then launching one month sooner won't make any difference. The product is the key, not the launch date. 2, 6, or 12 months from now, nobody will remember or care about the launch date. What they'll care about is the product. Is it cool? Is it elegant? Is it convenient? Does it do what they want it to do? That's what will determine BlackBerry's success- not a one month delay in one market.
Ulta: Sizzling Growth At A Sizzling Price [View article]
I think the key here is the long term view. It's easy to focus on the next crisis in D.C., the fiscal cliff or the sequester or the next jobs report, but over a long term horizon, Ulta today could be like buying GMCR or CMG very early on in a stellar rise. If you held either of those stocks for 8-10 years, you made a killing. ULTA and KORS both have the potential to do the same thing. Neither will be a rocket, but new store openings every quarter, year after year, will pay off big. This is a great stock for patient money (think IRA or 401k).
Z10 Takes BlackBerry Higher [View article]
BBRY bulls might also consider buying Jan 2014 calls- but wait until the next time the stock gets hammered to do so. If you buy when it's going up, you'll pay too much premium.
Why Nokia Is Here To Stay [View article]
Is Nokia Really Undervalued? [View article]
(Nice job on the article!).
Sell Nokia, Take Profits. [View article]