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Mike Merrill

 
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  • Has Silver Reached A Brick Wall? [View article]
    Great article. Having watched the rise and fall of silver and gold over the years, it seems clear to me that silver is very low in its recent range. While it's impossible to know whether it will go up or down in the short term, there is little doubt that pms will go up substantially in the long term. Yes, a stock market meltdown could hit gold and silver like it did in 2008, as hedge funds sell anything and everything to meet margin calls. That said, the dollar is on the way to oblivion. With $17 billion in debt, plus $100 billion in unfunded liabilities for Medicare and Medicaid, the US has a financial house of cards that will cave in eventually. The only question is when. When it does happen, gold and silver will be priceless, so buy physical gold and silver for the long haul.
    Jul 14, 2014. 10:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Silver Break Free From Its Current Price Range? [View article]
    Short term, it's hard to know. Just when I think silver is catching a bid, hedge funds bail and down it goes. Long term, there's little doubt that the dollar is heading down, down down, and gold & silver will be worth substantially more (in dollar terms) than they are today.
    Jul 10, 2014. 09:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Should Rally, But Can Then Drop As Low As $14 [View article]
    If silver does drop to the $11-14 range, it will be the buying opportunity of a lifetime. Back up the truck and buy all you can. Governments around the world are printing money with abandon, and the deficit spending here in the U.S. will come back to bite us in a big way. Long term, gold and silver go much, much higher. I'd love the chance to pick up some on the cheap.
    Mar 30, 2014. 09:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Should Rally, But Can Then Drop As Low As $14 [View article]
    Interesting article. I'm always a bit befuddled when something like Crimea happens and the market does the exact opposite of what I expect it to do. Remember the old say-- "the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent."

    That said, if Silver does drop to the $11-14, then back up the truck and load up everything you can get your hands on. Regardless of the short term impact of the Fed's decision, long term it goes much, much higher. Governments around the world are printing money, and continuing to create new fiat currency will eventually lead to much higher prices in gold and silver.
    Mar 30, 2014. 09:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Gold Streaming Weakened Silver Wheaton? [View article]
    Great article. I think the biggest risk to Silver Wheaton long-term was where to find future growth. Miners are no longer willing to sign the same sweetheart deals they entered years ago before Silver's meteoric rise. When Silver prices approached $50, the biggest question for SLW was how they would ever convince another miner to sign a new deal with them. Even though prices dropped, miners aren't going to give away the store again.

    I think the Gold streaming agreement was very prudent, even though in hindsight they might have gotten a little better deal. It gives SLW a reliable source of new revenue, and with an implied cost of $1,093, it's a no-brainer. Yes, the deal might slightly pressure margins, but conversely, it could also be a lifesaver if silver prices stall or drop. It's a cheap, long-term insurance policy by a forwarding thinking management team planning for the next decade. It's a brilliant move in my book.
    Feb 22, 2014. 12:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Destiny Media's Problem Child [View article]
    Great article- interesting and thoroughly researched. Those critics throwing rocks at the author because he's using social media quotes are missing (or ignoring) the deeper fundamental analysis. I'm in the technology industry, and over the years I've seen way too many solutions in search of a problem. If the underlying video encoding hogs up CPU capacity, customers will notice. If it's a bad experience, customers will notice. If it's slow and buggy, customers will notice. Not all of them, but enough tech savvy people will figure it out and spread the word.

    My only suggestion- if you're thinking about buying the stock, test the product yourself first. Take the author up on his challenge and see check your own CPU stats. If it's a lousy experience for customers, then it's probably not a good investment.
    Feb 20, 2014. 05:05 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodities Today: Potash Names Rising Amid Russia, Gold Adjusting [View article]
    Potash names were crushed by headlines alone when Uralkali pulled out of the consortium and announced they'd drive prices lower and make it up on volume. With their profits taking a big hit, their CEO in jail and Putin announcing it's time to end the madness, it seems like headlines alone could drive Potash stocks right back up- especially if one of Putin's billionaire buddies buys a big stake in Uralkali.

    Normally a minority shareholder can't drive the train, but with Putin behind him and an issue of strategic importance to Russia, it seems like it's only a matter of time before the political spat is resolved- perhaps with a new consortium formed- and POT, MOS and IPI close their chart gaps and recover lost ground.
    Sep 16, 2013. 01:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash: 4 Reasons To Buy [View article]
    Great article. I think Putin announcing that he wanted the cartel issue resolved was the motivation behind the sale, so the next logical step would be Uralkali negotiating with Belarus, followed by them kissing and making up (in return for dropping charges against their CEO). Hopefully.

    Regardless of the actual outcome, I agree that both POT and MOS are undervalued, and both look very promising.
    Sep 16, 2013. 09:12 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nokia Lumia 1020: A King Is Born [View article]
    I'm a Nokia fan, and I believe the turnaround is definitely taking hold, but it's not an overnight process. I love my Lumia 920, and I'd upgrade to the 1020 in a minute if AT&T had decent coverage where I live. Once it's available for Verizon, I'll upgrade.

    That said, I don't agree that Instagram, Vine and SnapChat are of "questionable value." I don't use them, but my teenage daughter and all their friends do. When it comes to apps, one person's trash is another's treasure. Therefore, I think Microsoft should underwrite the cost of porting these apps to Windows Phone 8 and Windows 8, along with other key financial and banking apps. Nobody needs 1 million apps in the app store- it's the apps you use every day that are key.
    Aug 20, 2013. 08:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Agrium Doesn't See Any Change At Canpotex [View article]
    I'm long POT, but I think AGU and MOS are just as compelling. When a group of stocks is beaten down by a headline, I pay attention. Any of the majors in the fertilizer group are a very compelling long term opportunity.
    Aug 14, 2013. 06:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Potash And The Commodities Supercycle [View article]
    Very well said, HuiyiChen. It's classic supply and demand. If Uralkali does drive down Potash prices, I believe the lower price will increase demand- particularly in developing countries like India, where price is a very big issue for farmers. Therefore, it's not necessarily a zero sum game. It may require some patience, but I agree that POT is a good addition to one's portfolio.
    Aug 14, 2013. 12:27 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bear Of The Day: Potash [View article]
    Nothing really new here. I'm a Zack's subscriber and I generally appreciate their analysis, but doesn't add much insight. It would have been helpful the day after the Uralkali announcement, but now it's old news. I don't put much stock in analyst upgrades and downgrades- the very same analysts who issue 'strong buy' recommendations at the top then turn around and yell 'sell' at the bottom.

    I do agree that investors in the fertilizer segment should have a long time horizon. That said, POT was just too cheap to pass up. I loaded up at $29.50, and I think it's only a matter of time before it closes the chart gap and moves back up to the high 30s. Until then, you get paid to wait with a 5% dividend.
    Aug 12, 2013. 03:45 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Doyle: Potash Savior [View article]
    Well said, Keggers. I think it's completely rational for a company to cut its dividend if the circumstances change dramatically and maintaining the same dividend would threaten the company's viability. That doesn't seem to be the case here.

    Given the long start up times for new Potash mines, even a 25% price drop in the near term (if it ever happened) wouldn't threaten POT as a going concern. Quite the contrary, it could shake out some weaker players, cause others (BHP) to cancel or delay planned projects, so POT might come out smelling like a rose in the long term even if a price drop does occur.

    That said, speculation about price drops and dividend cuts is all just speculation at this point. It might be some wily Russians playing poker. Either way, POT looks strong for the long term, and I see the price drop as a great stock on sale cheap.
    Aug 8, 2013. 10:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You Buy These 5 On-Sale Dividend Stocks? [View article]
    Great article. I think POT looks very interesting here. Long term it's bound to go back up, but it may be rocky in the short term. This could be a great chance to pick it up on the cheap if you have a long term investment horizon. The world population is continuing to increase, and a price war could cause BHP Billiton to rethink their expansion plans. It could also drive smaller players out of business, or lead to consolidation in the industry. Any way you slice it, the world population is growing and people will need more food, which means growing fertilizer demand. I think the dividend is icing on the cake, and the shares appreciating over time look like a good profit opportunity.
    Aug 8, 2013. 10:11 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Potash Corp. Is Relatively Overvalued And Will Underperform Peers [View article]
    I agree with Elvis- focusing solely on one metric doesn't give a thorough analysis. If POT production costs are lower, management is more efficient, etc., then the author is focusing on the wrong metric.

    I'm also having trouble with the final sentence summing up the article: "...as long as Potash Corp continues to trade with a built-in takeover premium, Mosaic will outperform in my opinion." If POT does continue to trade with a built-in takeover premium, then the conclusion seems exactly backwards- if there is a takeover potential (as Uralkali hinted on 8/6), then why wouldn't POT stock price benefit from this premium?
    Aug 7, 2013. 07:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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