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Mike Nadel

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  • It's Time To Play Ball (Part 3): Dividend Growth Prospects (And Suspects) [View article]

    I wouldn't hold some of those companies because they do not fit my DGI portfolio, but I do understand the allure of many of them.

    I hear ya about consolidating the portfolio. As I've been buying blue chips, I've been trimming my less attractive holdings because I don't want an unwieldly portfolio.

    When I decide I want to sell a company, either because of a change in fundamentals or because it no longer fits my mission statement, the price I set depends upon if I am ahead or behind. If I am ahead, I want to guarantee a certain profit. If I am behind, I want to prevent a more severe loss.

    In the past, I have tried to wait until a loss turns into a profit before selling, but in general I have found that hasn't worked for me. More often than not, the price continues to go down and I suffer an even greater loss.

    With Intel, I have set a sell price that guarantees I will lose only X dollars on my original investment. If it happens to advance and I never sell or I get a chance to sell at a higher price, great. But if it goes down to my sell price, I will sell and not look back.

    I sold LNCO last month and couldn't tell you if it's gone up or down or sideways since then. I don't know and I don't care. It's somebody else's problem or godsend now. The same will be true of INTC.

    Aug 8 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Play Ball (Part 3): Dividend Growth Prospects (And Suspects) [View article]

    My VOD and OHI are up considerably, GE is within a few dollars of break-even and BCE is getting down to the point where I have to think about protecting my portfolio and selling. The whole VZ-to-Canada thing spooks me a little.

    Aug 8 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Play Ball (Part 3): Dividend Growth Prospects (And Suspects) [View article]

    I used to read about authors who had the same stock in their taxable account and their wife's IRA and say: "Why would you do that? Why have overlap like that when there's a whole world of stocks out there?"

    But then personal experience provided the answer. One only has so much cash available in each account. This is especially true of Roth IRAs, where one only can put $5500 in 2013 (6500 if 50+ years old). Just the other day I was thinking of adding to a stock that's in my wife's Roth ... but there isn't a cent available to invest there. So if I wanted more of that stock, I either needed to sell one of the companies in her Roth (which I didn't want to do) or I needed to buy it in my Roth or my traditional IRA.

    So that's a logical, real-world example of why it's not only feasible but practical to have overlap.

    There really is no reason to avoid doing it. Once upon a time, it might have created a little more of a paperwork headache, but now the brokerages do all that stuff for us.

    As for your specific stocks, I'll leave it up to the "experts" to weigh the pluses and the minuses. Given that you and I share many of the same names, however, I will say you must be a highly intelligent fellow!!

    Thanks for reading.

    Aug 8 10:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Play Ball (Part 3): Dividend Growth Prospects (And Suspects) [View article]

    You and I are in total agreement. I like every single word you said here. It's common sense ... and, like most common-sense things, it works!

    Aug 8 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Play Ball (Part 3): Dividend Growth Prospects (And Suspects) [View article]
    I actually would have been fine with Intel treading water. Since I bought it, however, they have gone significantly underwater. I'm mad at myself for not bailing after a 10% loss.

    The dividend growth -- and the never-ending promise of "hang on, we have products coming" -- were the only reasons for me to keep the stock. Now they didn't raise the dividend.

    I have a mission statement for a reason. The more I think about it, the more I'm thinking I should just pull my stop-loss order and sell the thing!

    Aug 8 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Play Ball (Part 3): Dividend Growth Prospects (And Suspects) [View article]

    BCE didn't have a great earnings report this morning. It was a report that the Canadian government was going to let Verizon waltz in under relaxed rules and steal share away from BCE, TU and RCI that sent share prices downward again, IMHO.

    That's my biggest worry about BCE and it's making me think I should take a small loss before it becomes an Intel-sized loss in my portfolio. We'll see.

    Aug 8 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Play Ball (Part 3): Dividend Growth Prospects (And Suspects) [View article]

    <<Yes, Intel has struggled with introducing products with some of the newer features in the new form factors, but they ARE addressing that, and do have products in the pipeline to fill that demand.>>

    I get what you are saying, and I want to be hopeful, too -- not only for me (as my stake is relatively small), but for the many loyal INTC shareholders out there who have bet a large percentage of their portfolios on the company.

    It's just that I've been hearing it forever ("forever" being my lifetime as an INTC investor). Shouldn't a company with the financial wherewithal and R&D acumen of Intel have been able to put viable tablet/mobile products on the market in the last 16-18 months? I mean, that is practically forever in tech years. And it's not exactly as if tablet and mobile snuck up on 'em.

    I have been very open-minded and patient with Intel. I bought at 28+ and reloaded at 26+ at the advice of folks here -- back when I was too foolish, lazy and uninformed to do proper DD. So that's my own fault. I have held on when others might have automatically sold when they experienced 8-10% losses. Again, foolish, and my own fault.

    At some point, the patience has to wear out, doesn't it? When does that point arrive? After a year, 5 years, 10 years? After 10% or 20% or 30% losses? How much of a paper loss is one to absorb? How many dividend freezes and/or cuts is one to endure?

    All I've done is establish a floor and say: "I am still willing to hold Intel and take on a little more water, but HERE is the point at which I refuse to take on even one more drop." In my little corner of the world, either Intel will start to turn things around or I will move on and buy other companies. I don't know ... that seems pretty reasonable. Maybe even too reasonable.

    BTW, as of market open today, I'm still an INTC shareholder. But just barely as, of course, shares are trending down even as the market heads up.

    Aug 8 09:56 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mr. Market: How Many More Head Fakes In REIT-Dom? [View article]
    Whether it is logical or fundamental for REITs to be tied to interest-rate changes seems almost irrelevant.

    It's all about whether Mr. Market PERCEIVES that REITs will be adversely affected by interest-rate changes that matters, at least in the short term.

    Every time someone from the Fed burps, Mr. Market loses his mind, at least temporarily.

    Thankfully, as the gentleman from Realty Income said, though, share prices do tend to catch up with fundamentals, regardless what the Noise du Jour happens to be.
    Aug 8 09:35 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Play Ball (Part 3): Dividend Growth Prospects (And Suspects) [View article]

    Except for O, all of my REIT positions are pretty small. The three health-care REITs combine to equal approximately one full position, and I get a little variety and some different yield points.

    I very much WANT to like GE. Barring something crazy happening, I'm not expecting to sell it anytime soon ... but it is going to have to earn its way back into my good graces!

    I'd like BCE to work because I'd rather not lock in a loss as I did with LNCO and I might do with INTC, but the whole idea of this project of mine is to come away with a better, cleaner, DGI portfolio. I do have several Canadian banks on my watch list; you're right, that would be a decent substitute.

    As always, I appreciate your input.

    Aug 8 12:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Play Ball (Part 3): Dividend Growth Prospects (And Suspects) [View article]

    You might have given me an even better reason to sell. I like to fully understand every company I own, but half of what you said in that first paragraph went right over my head.

    As for the dividend, having a high yield isn't enough for me. I bought Intel for its dividend growth and its "moat." In 16 months of ownership, I haven't seen enough.

    Seriously, though, you (and Guitar) make a compelling argument and I will give it some more thought. My stop-loss order didn't get triggered Wednesday.

    Aug 8 12:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel's Dividend Disappointment: Don't Panic - Yet [View article]

    I think you are a talented contributor and you know more about Intel in your pinkie than I do in my brain. But I've been reading (not just from you, BTW) that Intel is one product away from taking off like gangbusters ever since I first bought the stock in the spring of 2012.

    It's like Cubs fans who keep saying, "This will be our year, you just watch." Eventually, it's all just noise.

    I hope all Intel investors score big. Who knows ... maybe my stop-loss order won't fill and I'll be one. I want all of us to win.

    Aug 8 12:02 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buckets, Cisterns, Asset Allocation, And Retirement [View article]

    Your key phrase was "That time is not now."

    Well, now is now. We have to invest in something. Bonds are money-losing propositions.

    You no doubt are right that bonds will be back in vogue again one day. Everything is cyclical. CDs might actually fetch more than a fraction of a percent, too. Believe me, when that day comes, investors seeking income will flock to them. And yet, dividends and their investors will live on, just as they have for a century and more.

    Aug 7 11:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Growth Investing And Beating The S&P 500 [View article]

    OK, you buy the index fund while Crosetti does DGI.

    Let's say you do indeed come away with $1.7M after X number of years while Crosetti "only" has $1.5M.

    Then comes time for you to start spending money in retirement. Every year, you need to take out 4-5% of your nest egg to pay for your medicine, food, golf, travel, etc. Meanwhile, Crosetti is using his dividend payments to spend for the same things. He is getting as much money every month -- probably more, actually -- as you are. And he never has to spend a dime of the money he invested. After X number of years -- and X number of 4-5% withdrawals -- you have spent a huge chunk of your principal. After the same number of years, Crosetti still has his $1.5M (plus capital gains). And he hasn't paid any mutual fund fees.

    Oh, and here's a twist to the scenario: One year into your retirement, there is a major market meltdown very similar to the 2008-09 recession. Both portfolios lose 40% of their paper value. Your $1.7M is now worth only $1M and Crosetti's $1.5M fell to $900K. But Crosetti's rock-solid dividend growers kept doing their thing even during the meltdown, so he's still getting those delicious dividends. Meanwhile, you are taking 4-5% out of a suddenly much smaller portfolio -- and you had to sell some of your holdings at the market bottom to do so. Crosetti hasn't sold a thing, so his stocks will work their way back to the top, just as they always have throughout history.

    Obviously, there are many other factors such as taxes, fees, etc., but that's the distribution part of DGI in a nutshell and the advantage it can have over MPT.

    Aug 7 11:51 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Play Ball (Part 3): Dividend Growth Prospects (And Suspects) [View article]

    Hmmm ... Intel is pretty darn unloved now. Maybe instead of selling it, I should be buying a few thousand shares!

    Then again, maybe not.

    Aug 7 11:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Play Ball (Part 3): Dividend Growth Prospects (And Suspects) [View article]

    Yeah, I'm one funny guy, huh?

    Aug 7 11:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment