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Mike Nadel  

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  • Forget The Shopping List: Buy What's On Sale (Part 1) [View article]
    TF:

    Sounds like you have a strategy that works for you. Which is all that any of us can hope for. Congrats.

    Mike
    May 6, 2015. 07:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget The Shopping List: Buy What's On Sale (Part 1) [View article]
    TF:

    See, I have no trouble "faring no better than the index," especially if I'm holding high-quality companies with reliable, growing income streams.

    I guess I am guilty of not truly "seeking alpha." While I do have some specific $$$ goals, my overriding goal is, simply, to have "more than enough." And I will.

    Mike
    May 6, 2015. 07:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget The Shopping List: Buy What's On Sale (Part 1) [View article]
    Grisly:

    Michael might very well be right. But he also might be wrong, as prognosticators who have been predicting a huge correction since the fall of 2012 have been wrong.

    I don't mean that as a slam on Michael. It's just not easy to predict these things. If it were, we'd all be wildly rich.

    You'll get no specific stock-buying advice from me but I do offer this: Invest to your comfort level. It's your cash, nobody else's.

    If you follow somebody's advice to go all-in and the market crashes, that somebody isn't going to compensate you for your losses. If you follow somebody's advice to stay out and the market soars, that somebody isn't going to compensate you for opportunity cost.

    Many of us have faced such a decision the last couple of years. I wish you good fortune with yours.

    Mike
    May 6, 2015. 06:59 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget The Shopping List: Buy What's On Sale (Part 1) [View article]
    Alex:

    <<But I would like to add one caveat: I don't believe that orthodoxy (whatever that is) would argue in favor of buying anything overpriced, Dividend Aristocrat or not.>>

    My point exactly. You simply said it in about 1/20th as many words as I did. Nice job!

    Mike
    May 5, 2015. 11:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget The Shopping List: Buy What's On Sale (Part 1) [View article]
    Paul:

    <<Too many investors hang on to an inferior investment because of its past performance.>>

    This was my rationale for selling MMM at 93 in September of 2012. Brilliant move!

    I have since decided that just because a great company is "overvalued," it doesn't mean I should dump it and buy a company that is, well, inferior.

    Now, if you are talking about identifying the weaker links in one's portfolio and dumping them at high valuations, I can see that. For myself, however, I decided that I am much better at identifying companies I want to own than I am at identifying those that are so overvalued they need to be sold.

    My personality isn't suited to trading, for better or worse.

    Mike
    May 5, 2015. 11:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget The Shopping List: Buy What's On Sale (Part 1) [View article]
    II:

    Don't apologize for having a different viewpoint from me. I just disagree with your characterization that "DGI Dogma" champions buying any Aristocrat at any price.

    Yes, I funded the DG50 even though I knew most of the companies were overvalued. It is part of a project that I expect to last for more than a decade and it represents a small fraction of my overall portfolio. I wasn't going on such a shopping spree in my personal portfolio and I said so.

    The main purpose of the DG50 is to track income growth over time. Total return is not the primary goal. As for its ability to "outperform even when purchased at high valuations," the funny thing is -- and the thing that folks tend to gloss over -- is that the S&P 500 Index and most other common indexes used for comparisons also were "overvalued" the day I funded the DG50 and have been purchased at high valuations for a couple years now.

    So unless a 401k investor has been sticking his/her payroll deductions into money market funds every 2 weeks, he/she has been buying index funds at or near market highs for well over 2 years.

    I will concede that some DGI proponents buy without worrying too much about valuation, and I too cringe when I read that here on SA. Still, I challenge somebody to prove that most DGIs are doing this.

    I also will concede that if one wants to own certain companies, one almost always must pay greater than "fair value" and that DGIs have done this. I know I have -- although I have done so very, very infrequently. I'm guessing those that "overpaid" for MO at 25 and PEP at 60 and COST at 70 aren't feeling too bad about it right now. I refused to buy LMT at 100 because it was too pricey; that was a brilliant move, huh?

    In short, anytime one generalizes about a group, one runs the risk of being wrong -- or at least of exaggerating greatly. That's what I believe, but you and Ian and any others are allowed to disagree. We have that freedom in the U.S. and on the interwebs!

    Mike
    May 5, 2015. 11:09 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy: W.P. Carey [View article]
    mjt:

    $59 is my "it's forcing me to buy it" price for WPC. We'll see if it gets there.

    Mike
    May 5, 2015. 10:49 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Project $3 Million - Portfolio Management, New Purchase [View article]
    Great comment, Scott.

    Mike
    May 5, 2015. 05:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Forget The Shopping List: Buy What's On Sale (Part 1) [View article]
    II:

    <<I'll pass the time reading the comment firestorm I'm sure this article is going to set off for questioning the DGI dogma that it's better to buy a Dividend Aristocrat at any price than any stock that isn't at a more reasonable valuation.>>

    Where do I start here? How about "DGI dogma"?

    Let's begin with those I consider the most knowledgeable DGI authorities here on Seeking Alpha. Chuck Carnevale is Mr. Valuation; he would rather not own a fabulous company than overpay for it. Dave Crosetti absolutely insists upon buying at sound value points and has recently said he's been buying little lately because of that. David Van Knapp and David Fish regularly write and comment on valuation as an important metric. Chowder never lets cash sit idle, but he almost always seeks companies trading at a 10% discount to BOTH M* and S&P Capital IQ fair value estimates (and advises others to do the same). A frequent commenter who goes by Buy&Hold2012 repeatedly states his love for Dividend Aristocrats and DGI; not only won't he buy them at any price, however, he won't even buy an undervalued one if the ENTIRE MARKET is not experiencing at least a 20% correction.

    I could go on -- and I certainly could include myself on that list. I am not buying very much at all lately even though I have a little cash to spend.

    In both the article to which the author linked and the article in which the name "Dividend Growth 50" was born --http://seekingalpha.co... -- I stressed that most panelists who selected the DG50 warned that lots of companies on the list were overvalued and therefore were not great current purchase candidates.

    In a follow-up article -- http://seekingalpha.co... -- I discussed 113 companies named by the panelists in addition to those that made the DG50. There certainly are some values in that group.

    II, you and I have agreed on many things in the past and I usually find you to be quite reasonable and pragmatic. I'm trying to figure out why you would say something that you almost sure must know is untrue.

    Are there DGI proponents who will buy any Aristocrat anytime at any price? Probably. Just as there surely are total-return investors who will do the same. And absolutely there are index fund investors who do so every two weeks through payroll deductions. (Some folks forget that when the market is overheated, so are any funds that track an index of overheated companies.)

    Here's the dogma I follow and "preach":

    Quality + Value + Dividend Growth = Ahhhh.

    Can't get to "Ahhhh" without all three components. It's why I'm not buying any Aristocrat at any price -- and neither are Carnevale, Crosetti and most serious DGI proponents I know.

    Mike
    May 5, 2015. 05:26 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Project $3 Million - Portfolio Management, New Purchase [View article]
    209:

    A lot depends upon what one wants the Mount Rushmore to represent. For example, Ty Cobb was a horrible, unapologetic. Given the times, there were lots of racists in baseball, but Cobb was the kind of guy who'd spit on a black player or threaten physical harm to him, so I don't think I want somebody like that on my Rushmore.

    Ruth did a lot of goofy things, but most historians didn't think he was a hurtful man. Gehrig and Mays are no-brainers to me -- superduperstars who were everything anybody would want in a "baseball hero."

    If I had Ruth and Gehrig, I wouldn't want another Yankee on there "just because" (and I grew up a Yankee fan; just would want other organizations represented), so that would eliminate Mantle and DiMaggio. I agree with Scott that it would be good to have a pitcher representin', and Walter Johnson arguably was the best ever. Hank and Stan were great players and great ambassadors for the game, so it would be hard to argue against them. Ted Williams might have been the best hitter ever; his stats would have been even better had he not been a war hero.

    Sad that we can't even consider anybody from the last 25 years because of PEDs. Junior Griffey maybe?

    Mike
    May 5, 2015. 05:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy: W.P. Carey [View article]
    kolpin:

    My SCG and AVA positions are somewhat underweighted but they are both in the Roth IRA and I don't have available cash there so, as I said, I haven't spent a lot of time looking at them. My WEC and SO positions already are full, and both of them are in the Roth, too.

    I'd like D and NEE, but they are almost always overvalued. XEL also is on my watch list, so that might be one I should start thinking about a buy zone for.

    As for a pullback ... who knows ... the big correction folks have been warning us about for three years might have started today! We won't know till we're well into it.

    Mike
    May 5, 2015. 04:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy: W.P. Carey [View article]
    kolpin:

    I'm not really looking for more utes now so I haven't given it much thought honestly. I don't want to give bad advice.

    Mike
    May 5, 2015. 02:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Recent Buy: W.P. Carey [View article]
    I like WPC but ...

    I'm already long O (a core position), HCN, OHI and NNN. To put more money into this sector, with the headwinds we're looking at now, is just beyond my comfort level.

    But everybody has a different comfort level, and I wish those who are buying WPC and other REITs nothing but good fortune.

    Mike
    May 5, 2015. 01:27 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My DGI Journey Ep. 2 - Adding Core Positions [View article]
    YDGI:

    My third year in Minny, I was fortunate to cover the Twinkies winning the World Series and four years later, in 1991, I covered the best World Series I've ever seen (Twins-Braves) capped by one of the best sporting events I've ever been part of (Game 7). So mostly good memories, despite the frostbite!

    Sounds like you have a plan, and I wish you good fortune with it.

    Mike
    May 5, 2015. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My DGI Journey Ep. 2 - Adding Core Positions [View article]
    YDGI:

    FWIW (perhaps not much) I like your four new buys more than just about anything else in your portfolio. (I love MMM, too, and am long PG and TNT, again FWIW.)

    You have a little too much yield-chasing going on for my tastes, but each of us must invest to his/her comfort level.

    As far as a portfolio nickname, it's not as if Minnesota companies even comprise half your portfolio, so to make it seem otherwise wouldn't seem right to me. But hey, it's your deal. If you had to invoke your homestate, how about Minny 'N More -- the MNM portfolio.

    BTW, I lived in Minneapolis (actually New Hope and Apple Valley) from 1985-94 and got my start there as a full-time sportswriter. I enjoyed the area very much, although my bones have been chilled enough for one lifetime, thank you!

    Mike
    May 5, 2015. 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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