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Mike Nadel  

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  • Differing Outlooks On The Market [View article]
    BT:

    I like the wide moat/exemplary stewardship combo, too.

    As I said, TROW is on my list. Others passed it for me, but it's still there! I wish you good fortune with it (and everything else).

    Mike
    Aug 1, 2015. 11:55 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: Updating My 2015 Dividend Raise Prediction [View article]
    I'd be very surprised if it's lower than 1.05. My call is 1.06 but I wouldn't be stunned by 1.08.

    Mike
    Aug 1, 2015. 11:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dumbest Argument Against Dividend-Paying Stocks [View article]
    Zugz:

    You generalize a little too much for my liking, but I again agree wholeheartedly with you about use of the word "safe." Over the last two years, I have made comments and sent private messages to those who use it cavalierly. In my view, there is no such thing as a safe stock.

    Now, there are "comparatively" safe stocks -- I would say JNJ is "safer" than BIIB. And there are "comparatively" safe dividends -- I would say XOM's is safer than ESV's. Again, we come to likelihoods.

    I do disagree with you somewhat that consecutive years of dividend growth means little. When a company can keep its dividend going for decades through wars, political shenanigans, recessions, Three's Company reruns, etc, I think it does say something. Listen to these company's earnings calls. Many of their CEOs talk about protecting the dividend being among the company's top goals. Some say it is THE top imperative. A company like Realty Income advertises itself as The Monthly Dividend Company; I'm guessing that cutting the dividend would be the very last thing it would want to do.

    Are any of those guarantees? No they are not. Immelt said the GE dividend was safe before it got cut and Fredriksen said the SDRL dividend was safe before it got eliminated. But yet again, we are talking about likely situations.

    There are no guarantees -- not in DGI, not in total-return investing, not in growth investing, not in momentum investing, not in MPT, not in bonds, not in commodities, not in precious metals -- but there are likely outcomes.

    I am a pretty conservative investor and I will go with "likely" every time. It's probably why I will never achieve what some would describe as "Alpha." And that's OK with me.

    Mike
    Aug 1, 2015. 06:43 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Kinder Morgan Is Too Much For A Dividend Growth Investor? [View article]
    Rick:

    This ranks up there with the best advice in this entire excellent comment stream, not just for me but for anybody struggling with a decision about KMI (or any other company).

    I am in the process of doing exactly what you recommend and I hope to make a very informed decision soon.

    Mike
    Aug 1, 2015. 06:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Kinder Morgan Is Too Much For A Dividend Growth Investor? [View article]
    Baldy:

    Enjoy, and don't let the cool mountains fool you -- keep slathering sun screen on that head of yours!!!

    Mike
    Aug 1, 2015. 06:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Opportunities In The Industrial Sector [View article]
    Great stuff, DH.

    Thanks for mentioning me (esteemed? I'm honored) and our conversation. One additional thing to remember about cyclicals is that they go through cycles even if the economy is good. By all accounts, we're still in a bull market, but EMR, CAT, UNP and others have had a bit of a rough go lately.

    The two names to me that always jump out when I'm thinking about, discussing or researching Industrials are MMM and LMT. I have a decent amount of MMM, an OK amount of LMT and a desire to own considerably more of both! (I also have woulda-coulda-shoulda sob stories about why I don't more of each, but I won't go into them here!!)

    Otherwise, I also own DE, GE, which I bought in 2008 before I had ever heard of DGI, and EMR, which I bought recently after selling half my GE stake. My watch list also includes several others: UNP, FAST, RTN, NSC, CMI ... plus others not on this list, such as NOC, GD and UTX.

    Also, as a couple other commenters mentioned, there is a fine line distinguishing some categories. Is HON an Industrial or a Tech or some of both? Whatever, it's moved pretty high on my list.

    Anyway, I like your scoring system. Lots of food for thought there. Keep up the good work.

    Mike
    Aug 1, 2015. 06:20 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dumbest Argument Against Dividend-Paying Stocks [View article]
    Zugz:

    You say "there is nothing reliable" about the income from Aristocrats/Champions. I would contend that the income from them is likely more reliable than share price growth is from most stocks. And that's what I deal with, likelihood. Is it more likely that JNJ or PEP will be growing their dividends 20 years from now or more likely that FB or TSLA will be growing their share prices? My choice would be the dividends, but it's OK if you disagree.

    I do agree with you completely about those who throw out financials. Unfortunately, we can't throw them out. It's like saying, "The Vikings played great defense against the run if you throw out those three 80-yard touchdown runs by Walter Payton." Unfortunately for the Vikings, those TDs counted.

    Mike
    Aug 1, 2015. 02:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Dumbest Argument Against Dividend-Paying Stocks [View article]
    Bob:

    Also, Dave Fish says 80% of Dividend Champions neither cut nor eliminated their dividends during the Great Recession.

    Mike
    Aug 1, 2015. 11:31 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Introducing The Tactical Dividend Growth Portfolio And Workshop (Part 1) [View article]
    AA:

    I don't believe in jinxes. I talk about no-hitters as they're going on all the time!!

    Mike
    Aug 1, 2015. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Kinder Morgan Is Too Much For A Dividend Growth Investor? [View article]
    rhia:

    I just skimmed through his two articles and I'll read them through tomorrow. But you do know that he doesn't write about KMI or invest in KMI, right?

    He writes about the integrated and/or E&P oil companies, and that will be useful, but not especially in the context of what I'm talking about here. Unless I'm missing something.

    Mike
    Jul 31, 2015. 11:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Introducing The Tactical Dividend Growth Portfolio And Workshop (Part 1) [View article]
    Dave:

    According to Yahoo, HON also had a nice DG stretch from 1991 into 2000, but it was pretty sketchy before '91. That's a long time ago, though. I'd be pretty satisfied with HON's history if I were considering a position -- and I am.

    Do you own it?

    Mike
    Jul 31, 2015. 11:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Differing Outlooks On The Market [View article]
    Thanks BT.

    I would guess that for TROW to really stay profitable, it would need those who leave a company that had a TROW 401k (and there are plenty) to then move those funds to TROW IRAs. And you're right, Morningstar does seem to indicate that is the case. So maybe I'm short-changing TROW's moat.

    When I think of deep moat, I think of industry leaders. And I see lists with Fidelity, Vanguard, Schwab and several others ranked well ahead of TROW in business. But maybe that definition is too narrow.

    Morningstar is in the moat-declaring business, so I certainly would take their definition over mine!

    Curious, are you long TROW? It seriously is on my list, though I dropped it down a few months ago.

    Mike
    Jul 31, 2015. 11:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoiding The Endowment Effect: Should Mike Sell? [View article]
    Damn, Paul, now I'm trying to decide between KMI and some leggings!!!

    Mike
    Jul 31, 2015. 11:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoiding The Endowment Effect: Should Mike Sell? [View article]
    six (re MO):

    Fair point.

    Mike
    Jul 31, 2015. 11:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoiding The Endowment Effect: Should Mike Sell? [View article]
    six, Chowdah:

    KMI's fundamentals changed. Maybe not as severely as COP's did, but they changed.

    Also, six, I confessed in my article and in a long comment here that I didn't have much of an "investment thesis" when I bought KMI. I wasn't very savvy yet and I bought KMI (and KMR) because SA people I considered knowledgeable bought it and because it (and KMR) paid a great, growing dividend. I had never heard of Value Line. I didn't know how to find an Standard & Poor's credit rating. I lacked knowledge and, frankly, I probably was too lazy to invest in any company, let alone one as complex as KMI.

    So yes, my investment thesis on KMI (and every company) has changed. I have the ability and will to construct an investment thesis now!

    Mike
    Jul 31, 2015. 11:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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