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Mike Nadel  

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  • Bogle's Views On Retirement Income [View article]
    surf:

    I have much less cash now than when I wrote that comment back in 2013. I still have some dry powder and feel good about it, though.

    I will never take on debt to invest. Never ever. Doing so would not suit my personality at all. For those who have the stomach for it, as you apparently do, I'm sure you know what you're doing and I wish you well.

    Mike
    Feb 23, 2015. 06:26 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Over Think It, Buy Johnson & Johnson [View article]
    JNJMAN:

    Thank you for the excellent insight and first-hand knowledge.

    Very long JNJ and always looking for more at reasonable valuations.

    Mike
    Feb 23, 2015. 06:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend-Stingy Wal-Mart Was Already On Probation, So What Now? [View article]
    Canadian:

    I hope the decision works out well for you. If WMT goes on to gain 1,000% from here, please note I don't issue credits - ha!

    Mike
    Feb 23, 2015. 06:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend-Stingy Wal-Mart Was Already On Probation, So What Now? [View article]
    Chowdah & Eric:

    <<Analysts are still valuing D as a regulated utility and as a result, most are calling it a sell.>>

    I was curious about D so I went to the research tools at Fidelity.

    Eva Dimensions, which has a 91% Accuracy rating for utilities analysis, calls it a SELL: "D is less attractively priced in relation to its true value than almost all of the stocks in its industry."

    Jefferson Research, one of Chowdah's faves, raises major red flags in the areas of Operating Efficiency and Valuation and calls D a SELL.

    S&P Capital IQ, which has a 70% Accuracy rating, calls D a STRONG SELL, with a 12-month target price of $70.

    If I had as much success owning D as Chowdah has, I probably wouldn't sell despite all of this. Chowdah seems to know D inside out, trusts its management, knows its regulatory history and hurdles, etc.

    But as one who doesn't hold D and one who is no expert on either D or the industry, I have to at least pay some attention to these highly rated analysts. And I have to pay a lot of attention to the valuation.

    I could not possibly buy D anywhere near here and I eliminated it quite easily in the screen I'm doing to narrow my field in choosing a replacement for WMT.

    Just MHO. Good luck, all.

    Mike
    Feb 23, 2015. 06:17 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Over Think It, Buy Johnson & Johnson [View article]
    Nope. It's just what I like to call Extra Share Technology.

    (As long as one counts a calculator as technology.)

    And BTW, it's an idea I stole from fellow contributor ScottU. In our private messages over the years, he used to always talk about being able to buy "an extra share" of something. I liked that idea as a way to help establish a limit order price within my buy zone.

    Mike
    Feb 22, 2015. 08:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Over Think It, Buy Johnson & Johnson [View article]
    jj:

    So, if you bought MO at $16, you'll never, ever buy it over that price again?

    Mike
    Feb 22, 2015. 08:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend-Stingy Wal-Mart Was Already On Probation, So What Now? [View article]
    sneaker:

    That is an excellent point. WMT definitely has been a very good defensive stock, and that is worth something. Of course, I still will be very heavy into consumer staples and somewhat so in utes, both of which also are defensive.

    Right or wrong, I think my expectations for EMR might be a little lower. WMT had been aggressively raising divvies for years and then just slammed on the brakes. But yes, if EMR had 2+ years of low divvy growth AND a low-2s yield, I would probably have to decide if I want to keep it.

    Mike
    Feb 22, 2015. 08:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend-Stingy Wal-Mart Was Already On Probation, So What Now? [View article]
    Miguel:

    I own MAIN as well as four REITs, which for now are classified as Financials. Also, TROW is near the top of my list as my WMT replacement. I also own WFC in the DG50 portfolio, but it's a tiny position. That's enough for me for now, especially if I buy TROW.

    Besides, with MAIN and the REITs, I have considerably more Financial exposure than I do Tech exposure, believe it or not. I also am very light Minerals, with only a small BBL stake.

    I am very overweight consumer stocks and somewhat overweight Energy. I have a nice amount of utes, Health Care and Industrials.

    Mike
    Feb 22, 2015. 08:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend-Stingy Wal-Mart Was Already On Probation, So What Now? [View article]
    Chowdah:

    You'll never be in a Montgomery Wards store because the company has been defunct for quite some time now. Fairly similar to Sears, though. I bought a lawnmower at Sears when we moved to Charlotte 4 years ago; that was my first time in a Sears in at least 5 years and I haven't been back since.

    I don't go to Wal-Mart all that often - a few times a year, max. They have the chew toys my dog likes at the best price! If not, I might never go in one.

    Mike
    Feb 22, 2015. 08:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Your Story? Dividend Growth Investing's Business Model [View article]
    teresa:

    <<I hope General Motors, Polaroid, NYT, etc. were not part of your buy and never sell strategy...>>

    Let's say they were.

    Let's say that, over a span of 25-30 years, he invested hundreds of thousands of dollars in dozens of companies he considered stalwarts: JNJ, MO, WMT, PG, XOM, T, GIS and, yes, GM, Polaroid, NYT, etc.

    Do you think he'd be a multi-multi-multi-mill... or a mere multi-multi-millionaire?

    I don't know any perfect investors. We all make mistakes. But as long as we buy lots of winners, too, and we don't do something stupid like sell a winner long before it's had a chance to win, we should come out A-OK.

    The whole "GM and Polaroid" thing is such a strawman argument against long-term investing in blue-chip companies. But I'm glad the strawman argument exists because it inspired me to write about the fallacy of the old Nifty Fifty being disastrous to investors -- http://seekingalpha.co... -- which in turn led to me creating the New Nifty Fifty, which in turn became the Dividend Growth 50.

    So I thank all who can't resist making that weak argument against investing long-term in blue-chip companies!

    Mike
    Feb 22, 2015. 04:10 PM | 14 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Over Think It, Buy Johnson & Johnson [View article]
    Nicholas:

    I have $1,250.93 available to invest right now in my wife's 401k brokerage account. To buy 13 shares (in addition to the hundreds of JNJ we already own), price needs to get down to $96.22.

    If I was willing to buy only 12 shares, I could pay up to $104.24. But JNJ is competing with several other companies for the right to be bought in that account, so I'm either going to get that extra share or buy one of the other companies that might be better valued. As I said, JNJ is our biggest position, so I'm not clamoring for more but am always willing to add if I believe the value is right.

    Additionally, I don't "need" to spend that money now. I can wait another couple weeks when several hundred more dollars will go into that account and then a couple weeks after that for more $$$. Commissions are $9.99 in that account, so I try to wait until there is at least $2,000 to invest. But I am willing to invest less if it's an especially compelling value.

    JNJ at $96 would be compelling. At $104, or even $101, not quite as much.

    Capiche?

    Mike
    Feb 22, 2015. 04:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend-Stingy Wal-Mart Was Already On Probation, So What Now? [View article]
    Scott:

    <<During times of turmoil in the US, this does work as somewhat of a natural hedge. If you look at it in reverse.>>

    Look at it in reverse? Hey, I'm a forward-looking guy!

    Seriously, I understand what you're saying. I guess I'm not looking to hedge right now.

    Mike
    Feb 22, 2015. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend-Stingy Wal-Mart Was Already On Probation, So What Now? [View article]
    Rose:

    Using any kind of accepted valuation metrics, GILD appears undervalued. So it's a matter of if one likes the company's fundamentals, pipeline, forward guidance, etc.

    It gets a 3 Safety score from VL, so some might look at it as more speculative in nature.

    If I wanted to add to any of my existing positions rather than initiate a new position, GILD might be No. 1 on my list because of valuation. But I think I'm going to go with a newcomer if I sell WMT.

    Mike
    Feb 22, 2015. 03:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend-Stingy Wal-Mart Was Already On Probation, So What Now? [View article]
    Miguel:

    Thanks for the recommendations.

    I think I am looking to initiate a new position or two rather than add to an existing one, so I'll probably pass on BBL (and AMGN, GILD, etc).

    I have decided to stay away from CDN companies and others that pay divvies in non-U.S. currencies. It just bothers me that they announce a divvy hike ... but my actual divvy payment goes down due to FX issues! I respect that others like many of these companies, especially the CDN banks.

    Took a quick look at WDR. I don't think it's for me at this time as I'm probably not going to buy anything with a 3 or worse Safety score from Value Line.

    Mike
    Feb 22, 2015. 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend-Stingy Wal-Mart Was Already On Probation, So What Now? [View article]
    maybe & UP:

    Excellent conversation about Industrials.

    There indeed is quite a crossover into other sectors, and not just for Industrials.

    Mike
    Feb 22, 2015. 01:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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