Seeking Alpha

Mike Picone's  Instablog

Mike Picone
Send Message
Mike Picone is a private investor with 30 years experience, emphasizing domestic stocks and classic fundamental analysis. He has a strong interest in developing trading and asset allocation strategies that respond optimally to changing economic and market conditions and to the availability of... More
View Mike Picone's Instablogs on:
  • Impending Stock Market Upside Surprise, Part 1: Incredible Strength

                Evidence abounds that the current stock market advance will intensify by the end of the year.  A key element is the incredible strength of the present uptrend in market prices. At the close of an CNBC interview last week, Laszlo Birinyi, who is bullish on stocks at the moment, noted that almost everything was going up, while he instead preferred a stock-picker's market in which quality research and ability are rewarded.  Indeed, the modest daily advances in the most closely watched market indices have masked a more overwhelming move by the broad market recently, and the strength has continued to increase.  In this market almost everyone is a winner, to the chagrin of the pros like Mr. Birinyi and the regret of bearish skeptics who watch from the sidelines.  The availability of considerable cash and the market strength and breadth support a strong move to higher prices.

     

    A New Milestone: Advances/Declines

     

                By the close on Friday, yet another significant milestone was reached, when my measure of the 10-day advance/decline ratio [A/D] markedly exceeded a value of 2.  This was cited long ago by Martin Zweig [Winning on Wall Street] as a precursor to significant up moves in the market.  For convenience, I derived the following definition of a 10-day A/D value, which uses readily accessible weekly data on the NYSE and the NASDAQ:

     

    A10/D10 = [A1 + A2]/[D1 + D2],                                                                       (1)

     

    where A1 is the sum of the number of advancing stocks on the NYSE and that of the NASDAQ after the first week (subscript "1") and the remaining quantities are defined similarly for advancing and declining (subscript "D1") stocks after the first week and after the following week (subscript "2"). This rather naive formula is exact if one estimates |dPw[i]|, the magnitude of the weekly change in price of each stock (indexed by i), in terms of <dPw>, the average weekly change in prices of all stocks for the two successive weeks considered:

     

    |dPw[i]| ~ 2 <dPw> [A1+D1 + A2 + D2]/[A1 – D1 + A2 – D2].             (2)

     

    Equation (2) also assumes the almost trivial condition that the weekly advances and declines of the combined set of stocks traded on the NYSE and NASDAQ are not balanced over the two-week period (denominator nonzero) and ignores the stocks which do not change in price over a given week. With this estimator of the magnitude of the weekly change in the price of each stock, the approximate change in the combined market capitalization over the two-week period is proportional to the total number of weekly advances minus the total number of weekly declines. Equation (1) follows directly.

     

                A value of A10/D10 > 2 is highly unusual and significant. Using weekly data provided by the Wall Street Journal Market Data Center [online.wsj.com/mdc], I find that A10/D10 > 3 for the most recent two weeks.  According to Martin Zweig's research in Winning on Wall Street, this strong reading bodes well for higher stock prices over the next several months.

     

    Percentage of Stocks Above Their 50- and 200-Day Moving Averages

     

                The percentages of stocks above their 50- and 200- day moving averages (which I will call P50 and P200) are also currently at extremely high readings (well above 80%). This again indicates tremendous strength across the broad market, with the indicators having risen meteorically from values near 10% in early March.  Surprisingly, this aspect of P50 and P200 is often ignored. On an episode of Wall Street Week which I remember vividly, Robert Farrell, a famous stock market analyst for several decades until retirement in 1992, publicized P200 as his favorite indicator of market extremes. Today, the standard expectation of extreme readings in P50 and P200 is that a market reversal is in the offing.  Nevertheless, the current values of P50 and P200 show that an unusually strong and broad market move is ongoing.

     

                The above indicators and similar measures show massive, broad strength in the stock market, and when combined with catalysts provided by economic indicators, interest rates, and the position of the Federal Reserve, portend a strong market advance over the next several months. The upcoming Part 2 of this discussion will detail the catalysts for such a move, including the cash waiting on the sidelines and the frustrated holders of that cash.

     

    The author currently holds investments in an index fund that is equivalent to VXF and SPY.
    Tags: VXF, SPY
    Sep 20 11:10 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Can It Be? – Market To Continue Upward

    In early June, my newly completed mid-term trading model indicated a continued, sustained, upward move in the market. At the time that I reported this in Seeking Alpha, the market of course immediately entered a corrective phase but then indeed moved upward significantly.  Obviously I should have quit while I was ahead; however, in fairness, I have decided to provide the present reading.  The medium-term (several-month) trend of the domestic stock market is strongly upward. Interest rates have remained at a very low level. The consumer has been reluctant to borrow money, instead reducing debt and increasing the potential to support future economic growth. The future impact of the Fed in the next several months is enigmatic, in that its interest rates are as low as they can go, rendering reductions in short-term rates unlikely. In spite of the absence of further stimulative interest rate changes by the Fed, one must consider its position to be very supportive.

     

    The bottom line is that the model continues bullish on a time scale of several months. This is very uncomfortable, given the historically negative bias of the market during the September-October time frame. Further, a conventional interpretation of the market price action is that we have reached an overbought extreme. On the other hand, the negative seasonal tendency has achieved the level of “mantra,” and thus is mitigated by my investing Rule Number 2: “Market ‘wisdom’ is either a lie or an error.” The short-term overbought condition could result in a correction. Nevertheless, the model supports higher market prices several months from now and implicitly augers against another disaster like that of last fall and winter.

     

    One thing worthy of note is that copper, a useful indicator of inflation, has been rising noticeably. A concurrence of several precursors of inflation could force us to revisit Rule Number 2 as applied to the influence of inflation on market prices. Presently, inflation remains mild and deflation appears to be under control.

     

    Anyone who wishes to avoid risk, but who does so by using a model with monetary, economic, and trend indicators, will likely hold stocks in agony over the next several months.  That is what I plan to do. Almost certainly, investors’ anxiety will become extreme as the Dow reaches 10000. If the upward trend is superseded or if other elements of the model become neutral or negative, I will report that event here. Meanwhile, holding stocks should be profitable, but it will not be easy money.

    Disclosure: Author holds an index investment equivalent to VXF.
    Tags: VXF, SPY
    Sep 02 6:04 PM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

  • My stock market model turned bullish as of COB July 23, 2010. Fully invested in stocks. Expect usual fall downturn.
    Jul 24, 2010
  • My stock model is neutral, bouncing daily across the bullish boundary. The bull move from March, 2009 is over.
    Jun 5, 2010
  • My stock market indicators remain at the extreme bullish level announced in my last article of early June. I am fully invested.
    Dec 9, 2009
More »
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.