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Mike Rabe
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Entrepreneur, serious student of stock investing, artist - Specialize in biotech stocks, in particular emerging companies - Focus on pinks, OTC, and Nasdaq stocks - Preference for stocks under $5 per share that are close to breaking out - Preference for companies that most traders / analysts... More
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  • 2013 - The Best Of Times, The Worst Of Times

    Twenty-Thirteen (2013). It was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

    Being a student of the fine art of forecasting, I have been making notes for the past two months of various prognostications for how the DJIA and the S & P 500 will perform in 2013.

    I've never seen so many diametrically opposed predictions as I've seen for this year. They are all over the map. Even some of the most grizzled Wall Street veterans are vehemently disagreeing with how well (or how badly) the markets will do this year.

    Two examples: Jeremy Siegel (noted Professor of Finance at Wharton) said the Dow will reach 15,000 before the end of 2013. On the flip side, Marc Faber (aka 'Dr. Doom') is predicting the bull market will end this year - and end ugly. With extreme predictions like that, one of these two bright individuals (with good track records) will be horribly wrong.

    While not as extreme in their predictions, Stifel Nicholas, Bank of America, and Deutsche Bank are all prediction 1600 for the S & P 500 in 2013. Wells Fargo is predicting 1525-1575.

    On a more somber note, a well-respected technician at Merrill Lynch has predicted a possible 10-15% market decline in February.

    And noted Wall Street analyst Gary Shilling has predicted a whopping 42% drop in the markets in 2013.

    Yes, 2013 - it was the best of times, it was the worst of times.

    It will be exciting to see how it all plays out.

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Jan 30 9:37 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Two Quick Rules to Help Avoid Losing With Stocks
    I want to pass along two quick (but valuable) rules to follow that will save you from losses in the stock market.

    1) If the stock market indices have fallen 15%, then odds are a bear market is coming.  This is not foolproof, but historically, when the market is down 15%, it will more often than not get worse, not better.  You will usually see the market slide down to a 20% loss or more (which technically is bear market territory). 

    So how can you apply this rule?  If the markets have lost 15%, it is generally not  a good idea to start buying new stocks or adding to your current positions at that time.  Odds are, a bear market is coming.  And these odds are based on past stock market declines of 15% off its highs.  To put numbers behind it, 12 out of 15 times the market has fallen 15%, it went on to fall into bear territory. 

    Begin to watch the Dow Jones Industrial Average, S & P 500, and the Nasdaq Indexes even more closely when they fall lower than 10 percent.  That 15% number is a significant number.

    2) Do not buy a stock on the day the company releases good news.   This is particularly true with biotech stocks.  You will often see a spike on the news, but then a quick selloff.  The time to buy a stock is before the news (buy the rumor, sell the news) or to wait until the market has sold off the good news.  

    While it's ok to hold a stock through a good news event if you already have a position in it, buying or adding to your position when the good news is released is more often than not bad timing.  Bad timing produces bad results.  And timing in the market is everything. 

    Part of marking money in the stock market is avoiding losses whenever you can.  By applying these two simple rules, you'll help avoid losses. 

    Disclosure: No individual stocks mentioned in article
    May 26 3:30 PM | Link | Comment!
  • My new stock coverage list
    I will soon be starting a site featuring my stock coverage. 1 pick every couple months with updated coverage.   Coverage will contain articles, updates, and breaking news for the companies I recommend.
     
    This will not be your traditional "stock pick site."  There is a plethora of pump and dump sites and sites that recommend a stock but then never follow up on them.   

    My site will focus coverage on companies with potential for large gains in the 6-18 mos. period.    I will focus on a small number of companies - those I feel very strongly about and know very well.
     
    Want in? - send an email to --> stock_coverage "at" yahoo.com

    Note the while the site will be public, only those on the list will receive the articles, updates and the picks.  This will give those on the list a heads up on the status of the recommended plays.

    Those on the list will be updated on the status of the project.
     
    Mar 04 11:14 AM | Link | Comment!
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