Mike Stathis

Roubini's Clarification, Comments on the Economy

oooooooooook.... let's rehash a clown who is tied into Washington and the "media club."

With Roubini and the rest of the dog-and-pony show on CNBC, newspapers and so forth, I'd say investors might want to hear from fresh, unbiased forecasters.

As many of the details as Schiff got wrong, at least he has professional asset management experience. Roubini soeaks in a vacuum.

I suppose when you're trying to work your way into the media club, one of the best ways to do that is to promo its members.

Boone Pickens Seeks Investors for Hedge Funds

Pickens has no clue, nor do his 2 traders (based upon having spoken to one of them prior to the oil collapse to warn of a big correction). Let me say this...the guy I spoke with was completely clueless.

How a $2 billion hedge fund could be primarily long in equities with no hedges, while sitting there day after day watching oil tank is beyond one's wildest imagination.

But Pickens knows howthe game is played. And the game is all about hedge fund fees. What many fail to realize is that Pickens gained virtually all of his wealth (after making a final bet that was quite easy to call - the Canadian Oil Sands) a few years ago, which yielded $1.4 BILLION in hedge fund fees + carry for 2005 alone (I think it was '05). So of course he's at it again. I suppose if you can find suckers stupid enough to let you play with their money while skimming a nice slice off the top, why not?

Throughout his history, Pickens never had much consistency. He has bet big and lost big, while occassionally hitting the jackpot. If he was smart, the next time he strikes it big (if there is a "next time") he would leave the table for good. Otherwise, based upon his history, he stands a chance at losing it all again.

Books: Bear Stearns' Death Comes Alive in Kelly's 'Street Fighters'

Okay, so....how does the book make me money?

I think it's important to reexamine the broad perspective from the standpoint of most investors.

I'd say the vast majority of investors are interested in ways to make back the huge losses they suffered rather than to read what is likely to be sensationalized drama about a bank failure.

There is no place for investment-based novels in my view. Perhaps if you are Warren Buffett, Bill Gates, Michael Dell or some other multi-billionare, you might get satisfaction out of such books.

But I would say that most people want to read truly valuable investment books that either teach them valuable skills or provide keen investment insights; something to consider.

I view authors who try to dramatize financial catastrophes as nothing more than scavengers.

And the last thing I'd do is read a book by a Wall Street shill. After all, the financial media is just as responsible as Wall Street for this charade via cover-ups, denials and lies. Let's not forget that.

By supporting members of the media, you are insuring the perpetuity of more scams via "Darwinism."

Michelle Caruso-Cabrera, Charlie Gasparino Bash Finance Blogs

On Jul 25 07:06 AM Beyond Trading wrote:

> If you are a serious professional trader making money in the market
> you switch off TV except those cases where Warren Buffett accepts
> to give an interview. There are cases where it is interesting to
> watch TV though, to check out what the herd is doing, Cramer, to
> profit from the opposite side. As for the rest sorry but no time
> and we do like money instead of losing it following others opinions

With all due respect, you should NEVER watch TV for investment ideas UNLESS you want to see what the sheep are thinking and trade against their stupidity. I personally don't have the time for that trash and don't need to tweek out cheap trades like that.

However, I invite you to read these 2 articles about Buffett before you decide again to listen to what he has to say .....

www.avaresearch.com/ar...
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I wonder if the CNBC bimbos have seen these articles....

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Everyone at CNBC deserves a very long prison sentence for censoring, manipulating the sheep who are stupid enough to watch them and serving as PAID hacks for Wall Street.

Bill Miller: 'The Worst Has Passed'

BTW, I might have more faith in Miller if he wasn't in denial about his baldness. That combed-over hair look is really sad. Surely with all the BILLIONS of $$ extracted in fees over the years from his Value Trust fund (yes I said billions) you'd think he could afford a hair transplant.

Bill Miller: 'The Worst Has Passed'

Maxe Paul is right. The ONLY problem is that investoer sentiment drives market direction. However, the illusion can only persist for so long before reality sets in. If you understand what's truly going on, you might want to play this rally. if you don't you should sit this one out, wait patiently and get back in after the market corrects back down.

FYI, I have still not altered my position on the financials from a year ago.... www.avaresearch.com/ar...

bynd2009: "Most of these commentators would have looked like geniuses if they had bought GS at 73 and sold at 164 or BAC at 3 and sold it at 12 or if they prefer to play safer, buying PFF at 20 and selling at 32. Mr Miller had to eat crow for the past couple of years but he didn;t beat S&P a gazillion years in a row by being an IQ challenged average fund manager. As best as I could recall, the majority of fund managers fell on their collective faces during a good portion of last 18 months. Thus in stead of spitting venom at Mr. Miller, carefully examine if there is any good in his comments and implement them. If you can beat Mr. Miller, I am sure he will be the first one to complement you. Jul 25 12:40 AM |Report abuse| Link | Reply +30"

I shorted GS at $155, and covered at $75 (documented in writing as an advance forecast). I didn't buy BAC at $3 or any other price (other to cover shorts) because I don't speculate. If I wanted to speculate, I'd play the futures market since the risk-reward is much better than with the financials.

What I did do however, was advise readers to short the mortgage companies, banks and homebuilders in my book (released in Q1 of '07) - Cashing in on the Real Estate Bubble. Clients who listened to me performed by 95% - 200% in 08'. More conservative clients went to cash in mid-2007.

Have a look ... www.avaresearch.com/fi...

Then ask yourself why the media has black-balled me. Figure it out. It's a game designed to screw you. That's why they interview fund managers who pump up their holdings and the SEC never bothers to investigate whether they dumped them after the interview (after the sheep climbed aboard).

Jeff Bezos: Learning from an Incredible Entrepreneur

I didn't watch the video - didn't need to.

Bezos is NOT a tech innovator. He is a strategist. Even more so he is able to EXECUTE.

Here's the deal with Bezos......He has the unique ability to think on his feet. He is a leader in creative thought, unlike the vast majority of CEOs in America today.

Is Bezos particularly intelligent? Most likely not according to standard measures. But who cares about standard measures? That's all trash anyway.

His unique personality is what truly makes him a great CEO. He is somewhat of a maverick. He manages to get things done regardless of the hurdles.

Is he a Steve Jobs?

Not at all. Jobs is arguably the best marketing strategist in the world. However, Jobs isn't particularly good as a CEO.

Bezos, on the other hand has a healthy mix of many elements.

I'm willing to bet Bezos was seen as an odd-ball for much of his life. In America, that can often be a good sign, as America has become a nation of dumbed-down robots.

If Bezos were a youth in today's modern America, it is likely he would be singled out as having one of more social/mental deficits - not because he is lacking - only because American society is continuing to force more youths into this ideal cookie-cutter image. And if they don't fit into it, they are claimed to have ADHD or some other mental issue.....perhaps "anger management" issues. I won't get into the government's atttempts to destroy individuality.

One thing I am sure of...the future great business leaders of the future will predominantly come from non-tradiational educational backgrounds- perhaps homeschooling. There's no way they will come from the public (and in many cases) the private school system.

Bezos is one of a kind. And if you cannot relate to his core psyche, don't even try to second-guess his judgment or you are likely to get burned.

Bill Miller: 'The Worst Has Passed'

This post by SA, which apparently was not directly authorized by Miller, is yet another attempt of SA to become the CNBC of the Internet by promoting Wall Street hacks and clueless authors while censoring and deemphasizing articles by the very rare few who actually deliver TRULY valuable insight.

Miller did little more than ride the coat tails of the bull market of the 1990s, while exposing investors in his funds to style drift and excessive risk. For many years, his reckless approach worked; that is until reality hit.

This man has absolutely no idea what is going on, similar to 99.99% of fund managers. Article continues here.....
www.avaresearch.com/ar...

Fool's Gold (Part 2)

Yes, but of course. I "fail to recognize" this and that. And I "fail to understand" this and that.

Do yourselves a big favor. Research the person before making critisms about them.

You mean in-FACT-uation? I'm stating facts that can be verified. Call it what you like. By speaking without knowing all of the facts and understanding all perspectives, you're demonstrating why you have been fooled by the vultures, liars and hacks in the media. By failing to look more closely into the facts, you are assuring your destiny as failed investors.

Posting personal insults confirms one of two things: ignorance or defeat; sometimes both.


YOUR BIGGEST ENEMY: THE FINANCIAL MEDIA AND THOSE THEIR AIR

The fact is that the media will not air anyone who speaks the truth and who is accurate. The ONLY time a real expert is interviewed like Buffett or Rogers, they are there to manipulate investor sentiment for their own benefit. BTW, Buffett and Rogers missed this collapse, so the media doesn't air any real experts who have a clue.


WHO PAYS THE BILLS OF THE MEDIA?

Who do you think pays all the bills at CNBC? The financial industry. This also includes companies that stand to benefit from the views of perma-doomers (i.e. gold companies, insurance companies/annuities, etc.). The media only serves the interests of their financial sponsors (and sometimes their political allies). If you don't realize this, you are doomed.


DOOMERS AREN'T EXPERTS, THEY ARE SALEMEN

Doomers who have been preaching the same song and dance for 20 years have no credibility. They are simply salesmen to sheep.

You people have been fooled by these doomers who have been preaching the same lines since the 1990s. They are the same guys who want no government regulation despitethe fact that it was the lack or proper regulation that caused this collpase. You need to start asking yourselves why.

I'll tell you why. Because at the end of the day, no matter how low they say the stock market is headed, they are STILL part of Wall Street. And regulation would spoil their party. You guys need to start realizing this.


YOU WILL ONLY SELL BOOKS IF YOU ARE A HACK FOR THE MEDIA

What many of you fail to realize is that those who are truly committed to marketing only write books as marketing tools, while mentioning their company in it dozens of times (do I need to mention any names?).

You also fail to realize that those who want to sell lots of books will play by the rules of the media so they will be invited as frequent guests. That enables your book to reach a huge market.

Part of these rules of the media mean you sugarcoat things and never insist that say the banking executives should be indicted on securities fraud (hint).

Part of these rules mean you are not to point to free trade as America's #1 problem (hint)

I care less about selling books. If I did, I would have sold-out to the media. If I had, based on the accuracy of my forecasts, I would have made millions from book sales alone.


THE STORY YOU DON'T KNOW ABOUT

None of you know the real story. The fact is that my books were written NOT for marketing. You won't see the name of my company plastered throughout. You won't see my website plastered throughout. And you won't see me selling securities.

My ONLY purpose in spending over 2 years writing these books was to warn you all about what I saw as an inevitable depression because I still felt for investors after they were screwed during the dotcom collapse.

You people have NO idea the efforts I made to warn every single real estate investment group and city council across the nation. I did this while asking for NO speaking fees, only to help them avert massive losses and to prepare for huge budget deficits.

I even contacted the AAII (the sheep organization for individual investors) to try and warn them and they did not want to listen because they are so deep into the pocket of the mutual fund industry while local chapter heads are often financial advisers.

I tried to warn everyone. And I had no securities or gold to sell. The decision makers of various real estate investment groups and investment associations like the AAII did not want me to communicate these warnings to their members because they all have monetary motives tied into the bull market mentality. As for city councils, they're brainless and they could care less.


FACTS SPEAK LOUDER THAN ANYTHING

All of this aside, the fact is that No author made the forecasts I did. Can you name any other book that.....

Predicted and proved irrefutable evidence there would be a depression

There would be a New Deal

Advised readers to short LEND, FRE, FMN, FRE, banks and homebuilders

Stated the that FMN and FRE would be bailed out by taxpayers

Stated real estate prices would decline by 35% on average (50-60% in regions of CA, FL, etc)

Detailed how the government manipulates economic data

Predicted the possibility of Dow 5500-6000, showing compelling evidence

Predicted the collapse of the commodities bubble in in 2008/2009 (with a resurgence thereafter)

Addressed healthcare as the second biggest long-term problem faced by America

100s of other forecasts many which have materialized; others on the way

PUBLISHED IN 2006

If you can show me anyone else who made these predictions in a book around that time, I'll kiss your feet.

Since that time, I have successfully caled every major market move (up and down)

in-FACT-uation

You might want to ask yourself why these media clowns never make timely market forecasts.

You might want to ask why you don't see equity analysis when these "experts" write articles.

You might want to ask why these "experts" keep repeating the same story over and over.

All they keep saying is down down down, gold up up up. Seriously, you guys need to wake up.

I'll tell you why. Because they are nothing more than salesmen to the sheep.

You guys need to get up to speed instead of being fooled by the financial media and the guys in their club; otherwise, you'll stand no chance.

As far as gold, think what you like. I merely presented unbiased facts. No one knows what will happen. But by failing to consider all of the facts, you stand to lose. I suggest some of you reread ALL 3 parts of the article on gold because some of you have clearly missed the big points.

One thing I am certain of. Those who follow the media clowns have never and never will make any real money to speak of. And when the next collapse is on the horizon, you can bet I won't be there to warn you agains since you trust the sheepherders. Let me know how much money you've made in 10 years.


THE TRUTH ABOUT THE FINANCIAL MEDIA

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The media clowns and salesmen fear me because I threaten to expose the facts which would not bode well for their sheepherding.

They have used widespread censorship, knowing that if you don't know about me, you won't know the truth. This is precisely why these stock market scams will continue. Ultimately, investors are to blame due to their ignorance.

These guys refuse to answer my challenges in a live debate because they know they will be thrashed and people will wake up to their bogus claims and salespitches. They realize that when you are outmanned, your best strategy is to never enter battle.

www.avaresearch.com/ar...
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Feel free to let me know if you ever wake up. Already several people have confessed they were fooled and now see the light.

Peter Schiff: Wrong on the Economy, Wrong on Healthcare (Part 3 of 4)

Preaching doom during the great bull market of the 1990s doesn't qualify one as "one of the best advisers around." There is nothing wrong with riding the bubble up as long as you know its's a bubble; as long as you know when to exit. The greatest investors actually do this. They don't sit around preaching doom for their entire lives as a way to justify buying gold and always remaining in "value investments." The greatest investors know when the tide turns and they adjust their strategies accordingly in a timely manner.

The best advisers DO NOT deal with retail investors. This is a statement of fact.

Even during the collapse when Schiff should have done quite well if he really knew what was going on, it appears as if quitethe opposite occured. Ithas been well-documented that Schiff's clients didn't fare too well. This is just one example. I know of many others, such as his clients complaining how they were down by more than the Dow.

globaleconomicanalysis...

Evidently, you didn't have your money with his firm. Perhaps you watch too much CNBC.

Fool's Gold (Part 2)

You kids should note that CNBC has specifically sent an invitation to all SA contributors to appear on their show. The reason is simple. CNBC realizes SA is read primarily by sheep. They also realize that 99% of the contributors are either clueless or they're sheepherders.

As a caveat, you might want to ask Jim Cramer, Larry Kudlow, Pete Najarian, CNBC producers (all had my book) and the rest of the crooks why they refused to interview me in 2007 and thereafter. I was trying to warn everyone about this depression. My book (published in 2006) predicted Dow 6000 as well.

The reason is because my conclusions were too painful for the financial sponsors of CNBC (Wall Street) to accept. You people are being lied to by the financial media and i am the only expert qualified and committed to speaking the truth. This is why the media has black-balled me. You've all been fooled. The financial media and Wall Street did it to you again, just like they did during the dotcom collapse.

The sheep don't know about me or my books but the best performing hedge funds do.

Fool's Gold (Part 2)

As expected, when sheep hear the truth from an unbiased expert who is not involved in selling securities or gold (i.e. someone without a financial interest in spreading propaganda), they're unable to see the light. They will state any amount of nonsense in order to help fuel their denial. All they end up doing is demonstrating how clueless they really are.

As such, I will respond only to someone who evidently is the only commenter who "gets it;" suncatcher. Suncatcher has summed up the audience of SA quite well, while putting much of his bias for gold aside.

As someone who obviously has a financial stake in rising gold, Suncatcher is still able to use reason. This demonstrates he is a wise investor. Many of you could learn from him, rather than crying when you don't read things that reinforce what you have been told by those who stand to profit from spreading myths and disinformation about gold.

"Thanks Mike, I appreciate the article. I think the only way to stir people up more than knocking gold on this forum is to knock SiriusXM. I think this discussion is realitively simple: If you think the future will roughly repeat the past; gold isn't really a great investment. If you think we have stepped off an economic cliff; gold makes more sense. If this is simply a severe recession/ mild depression then precious metals are a security blanket (mostly physcological). If you think this is the mother of all financial blowups you'd be crazy not to own precious metals. I am wandering between the two camps. I must admit I will probably sell most of my gold and silver at the next price spike. Meanwhile all the arguing won't solve anything until the fat lady sings. For what it's worth the folks at EWI are predicting gold in the 600 range and silver in the 6 dollar range. Not sure the time frame but they aren't ruling it out during this price correction."

Suncatcher, as far as I'm concerned the EWI guys are clueless. And yes, this has already shown to be the "mother of all financial blowups," with more to come. However, I still would not cling onto gold so tightly.

REMEMBER, it was I who wrote a book (America's Financial Apocalypse: How to Profit from the Next Great Depression)predicting a depression. It was I who predicted Fannie and Freddie would collpase and be baild out by taxpayers in this book. NO ONE else made such predictions.

REMEMBER, in my book I discussed the next NEW DEAL.

REMEMBER, in my book, I predicted gold to soar to $1400-$1600 by 2012-2014 and possibly $2000 a few years later.

Yet, I still see the facts.

I stand by my conclusions regarding gold. I am right. This is a fact. And I challenge any of the so-called "experts" who pump gold using groundless claims such as Peter Schiff, Marc Faber and the other perpetual doomers who have 0 credibility to enter a live debate with me. Don't hold your breath. They will not surface because they realize the best way to deal with someone they cannot defeat is to retreat. Perhaps some of you might learn from this common sense strategy. Good luck kids.

There’s a very good reason why I am paid to provide investment intelligence to those who only get paid if they are right.

There is also a very good reason why these so-called "experts" pitch their sales lines to the financial media - because the audience is primarily sheep. They win either way. They don't have to be right because they take your money after you have bought into their delusions. Peter Schiff is a prime example of this. Despite the fact that he has no idea what he is talking about, despite the fact that his clients did quite poorly, Peter made money.

If you people don't wake up and start realizing how the game is played, you will keep getting played over and over again.

Fool's Gold (Part 2)

Gold Barron, as you know, anyone can make a case by selecting specific data points. My illustration was over an extended period and I looked at several data points because doing so mimicks a "no" or "poor" market timing scenario. Even in my analysis, I showed periods whereby you could make money, but timing or random luck was involved.

The points you picked were just prior to the previous gold bubble (hence a low entry point) and in the midst of the current gold bubble (hence high exit point). You have reinforced my argument that timing matters.

Fool's Gold (Part 2)

Gold as a "preserver of wealth" implies that it keeps up with inflation, which (other than for short periods depending on when you bought it), this is not true.

As far as the "One oz of gold has always bought approx. 600 loaves of bread," where I live, a standard loaf costs around $2.89 and has for a couple of years. Prior to that, over the past 8 years, bread was around $1.80 - $2.30 (where I live) while gold was ~$230-$650. So this is about 100-300 loaves. Gold has outpaced inflation during the past decade, but only because the bull market began right around that time. If you go back into the 1990s, 1 oz of gold bought even fewer "loaves of bread."

All of this talk of gold being a long-term "safe haven" is not true. It is a short-term safe haven. Timing matters unless you live forever. Otherwise, you face liquidity risk.

Fool's Gold (Part 2)

By the way, if you are looking for something that holds up against inflation, I would look to oil; specifically oil trusts. When gold became decoupled from the dollar in the '70s, oil took its place. If something is linked to the dollar, it stands a much better chance of hedging against inflation. But oil can also be very volatile so it too is best traded or at least the positions should be managed. I do own some oil trusts and I will be looking to buy more as crude prices continue to fall back in line with supply-demand.