Mike Stathis

Fool's Gold (Part 2)

Yes, but of course. I "fail to recognize" this and that. And I "fail to understand" this and that.

Do yourselves a big favor. Research the person before making critisms about them.

You mean in-FACT-uation? I'm stating facts that can be verified. Call it what you like. By speaking without knowing all of the facts and understanding all perspectives, you're demonstrating why you have been fooled by the vultures, liars and hacks in the media. By failing to look more closely into the facts, you are assuring your destiny as failed investors.

Posting personal insults confirms one of two things: ignorance or defeat; sometimes both.


YOUR BIGGEST ENEMY: THE FINANCIAL MEDIA AND THOSE THEIR AIR

The fact is that the media will not air anyone who speaks the truth and who is accurate. The ONLY time a real expert is interviewed like Buffett or Rogers, they are there to manipulate investor sentiment for their own benefit. BTW, Buffett and Rogers missed this collapse, so the media doesn't air any real experts who have a clue.


WHO PAYS THE BILLS OF THE MEDIA?

Who do you think pays all the bills at CNBC? The financial industry. This also includes companies that stand to benefit from the views of perma-doomers (i.e. gold companies, insurance companies/annuities, etc.). The media only serves the interests of their financial sponsors (and sometimes their political allies). If you don't realize this, you are doomed.


DOOMERS AREN'T EXPERTS, THEY ARE SALEMEN

Doomers who have been preaching the same song and dance for 20 years have no credibility. They are simply salesmen to sheep.

You people have been fooled by these doomers who have been preaching the same lines since the 1990s. They are the same guys who want no government regulation despitethe fact that it was the lack or proper regulation that caused this collpase. You need to start asking yourselves why.

I'll tell you why. Because at the end of the day, no matter how low they say the stock market is headed, they are STILL part of Wall Street. And regulation would spoil their party. You guys need to start realizing this.


YOU WILL ONLY SELL BOOKS IF YOU ARE A HACK FOR THE MEDIA

What many of you fail to realize is that those who are truly committed to marketing only write books as marketing tools, while mentioning their company in it dozens of times (do I need to mention any names?).

You also fail to realize that those who want to sell lots of books will play by the rules of the media so they will be invited as frequent guests. That enables your book to reach a huge market.

Part of these rules of the media mean you sugarcoat things and never insist that say the banking executives should be indicted on securities fraud (hint).

Part of these rules mean you are not to point to free trade as America's #1 problem (hint)

I care less about selling books. If I did, I would have sold-out to the media. If I had, based on the accuracy of my forecasts, I would have made millions from book sales alone.


THE STORY YOU DON'T KNOW ABOUT

None of you know the real story. The fact is that my books were written NOT for marketing. You won't see the name of my company plastered throughout. You won't see my website plastered throughout. And you won't see me selling securities.

My ONLY purpose in spending over 2 years writing these books was to warn you all about what I saw as an inevitable depression because I still felt for investors after they were screwed during the dotcom collapse.

You people have NO idea the efforts I made to warn every single real estate investment group and city council across the nation. I did this while asking for NO speaking fees, only to help them avert massive losses and to prepare for huge budget deficits.

I even contacted the AAII (the sheep organization for individual investors) to try and warn them and they did not want to listen because they are so deep into the pocket of the mutual fund industry while local chapter heads are often financial advisers.

I tried to warn everyone. And I had no securities or gold to sell. The decision makers of various real estate investment groups and investment associations like the AAII did not want me to communicate these warnings to their members because they all have monetary motives tied into the bull market mentality. As for city councils, they're brainless and they could care less.


FACTS SPEAK LOUDER THAN ANYTHING

All of this aside, the fact is that No author made the forecasts I did. Can you name any other book that.....

Predicted and proved irrefutable evidence there would be a depression

There would be a New Deal

Advised readers to short LEND, FRE, FMN, FRE, banks and homebuilders

Stated the that FMN and FRE would be bailed out by taxpayers

Stated real estate prices would decline by 35% on average (50-60% in regions of CA, FL, etc)

Detailed how the government manipulates economic data

Predicted the possibility of Dow 5500-6000, showing compelling evidence

Predicted the collapse of the commodities bubble in in 2008/2009 (with a resurgence thereafter)

Addressed healthcare as the second biggest long-term problem faced by America

100s of other forecasts many which have materialized; others on the way

PUBLISHED IN 2006

If you can show me anyone else who made these predictions in a book around that time, I'll kiss your feet.

Since that time, I have successfully caled every major market move (up and down)

in-FACT-uation

You might want to ask yourself why these media clowns never make timely market forecasts.

You might want to ask why you don't see equity analysis when these "experts" write articles.

You might want to ask why these "experts" keep repeating the same story over and over.

All they keep saying is down down down, gold up up up. Seriously, you guys need to wake up.

I'll tell you why. Because they are nothing more than salesmen to the sheep.

You guys need to get up to speed instead of being fooled by the financial media and the guys in their club; otherwise, you'll stand no chance.

As far as gold, think what you like. I merely presented unbiased facts. No one knows what will happen. But by failing to consider all of the facts, you stand to lose. I suggest some of you reread ALL 3 parts of the article on gold because some of you have clearly missed the big points.

One thing I am certain of. Those who follow the media clowns have never and never will make any real money to speak of. And when the next collapse is on the horizon, you can bet I won't be there to warn you agains since you trust the sheepherders. Let me know how much money you've made in 10 years.


THE TRUTH ABOUT THE FINANCIAL MEDIA

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The media clowns and salesmen fear me because I threaten to expose the facts which would not bode well for their sheepherding.

They have used widespread censorship, knowing that if you don't know about me, you won't know the truth. This is precisely why these stock market scams will continue. Ultimately, investors are to blame due to their ignorance.

These guys refuse to answer my challenges in a live debate because they know they will be thrashed and people will wake up to their bogus claims and salespitches. They realize that when you are outmanned, your best strategy is to never enter battle.

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Feel free to let me know if you ever wake up. Already several people have confessed they were fooled and now see the light.

Fool's Gold (Part 2)

You kids should note that CNBC has specifically sent an invitation to all SA contributors to appear on their show. The reason is simple. CNBC realizes SA is read primarily by sheep. They also realize that 99% of the contributors are either clueless or they're sheepherders.

As a caveat, you might want to ask Jim Cramer, Larry Kudlow, Pete Najarian, CNBC producers (all had my book) and the rest of the crooks why they refused to interview me in 2007 and thereafter. I was trying to warn everyone about this depression. My book (published in 2006) predicted Dow 6000 as well.

The reason is because my conclusions were too painful for the financial sponsors of CNBC (Wall Street) to accept. You people are being lied to by the financial media and i am the only expert qualified and committed to speaking the truth. This is why the media has black-balled me. You've all been fooled. The financial media and Wall Street did it to you again, just like they did during the dotcom collapse.

The sheep don't know about me or my books but the best performing hedge funds do.

Fool's Gold (Part 2)

As expected, when sheep hear the truth from an unbiased expert who is not involved in selling securities or gold (i.e. someone without a financial interest in spreading propaganda), they're unable to see the light. They will state any amount of nonsense in order to help fuel their denial. All they end up doing is demonstrating how clueless they really are.

As such, I will respond only to someone who evidently is the only commenter who "gets it;" suncatcher. Suncatcher has summed up the audience of SA quite well, while putting much of his bias for gold aside.

As someone who obviously has a financial stake in rising gold, Suncatcher is still able to use reason. This demonstrates he is a wise investor. Many of you could learn from him, rather than crying when you don't read things that reinforce what you have been told by those who stand to profit from spreading myths and disinformation about gold.

"Thanks Mike, I appreciate the article. I think the only way to stir people up more than knocking gold on this forum is to knock SiriusXM. I think this discussion is realitively simple: If you think the future will roughly repeat the past; gold isn't really a great investment. If you think we have stepped off an economic cliff; gold makes more sense. If this is simply a severe recession/ mild depression then precious metals are a security blanket (mostly physcological). If you think this is the mother of all financial blowups you'd be crazy not to own precious metals. I am wandering between the two camps. I must admit I will probably sell most of my gold and silver at the next price spike. Meanwhile all the arguing won't solve anything until the fat lady sings. For what it's worth the folks at EWI are predicting gold in the 600 range and silver in the 6 dollar range. Not sure the time frame but they aren't ruling it out during this price correction."

Suncatcher, as far as I'm concerned the EWI guys are clueless. And yes, this has already shown to be the "mother of all financial blowups," with more to come. However, I still would not cling onto gold so tightly.

REMEMBER, it was I who wrote a book (America's Financial Apocalypse: How to Profit from the Next Great Depression)predicting a depression. It was I who predicted Fannie and Freddie would collpase and be baild out by taxpayers in this book. NO ONE else made such predictions.

REMEMBER, in my book I discussed the next NEW DEAL.

REMEMBER, in my book, I predicted gold to soar to $1400-$1600 by 2012-2014 and possibly $2000 a few years later.

Yet, I still see the facts.

I stand by my conclusions regarding gold. I am right. This is a fact. And I challenge any of the so-called "experts" who pump gold using groundless claims such as Peter Schiff, Marc Faber and the other perpetual doomers who have 0 credibility to enter a live debate with me. Don't hold your breath. They will not surface because they realize the best way to deal with someone they cannot defeat is to retreat. Perhaps some of you might learn from this common sense strategy. Good luck kids.

There’s a very good reason why I am paid to provide investment intelligence to those who only get paid if they are right.

There is also a very good reason why these so-called "experts" pitch their sales lines to the financial media - because the audience is primarily sheep. They win either way. They don't have to be right because they take your money after you have bought into their delusions. Peter Schiff is a prime example of this. Despite the fact that he has no idea what he is talking about, despite the fact that his clients did quite poorly, Peter made money.

If you people don't wake up and start realizing how the game is played, you will keep getting played over and over again.

Fool's Gold (Part 2)

Gold Barron, as you know, anyone can make a case by selecting specific data points. My illustration was over an extended period and I looked at several data points because doing so mimicks a "no" or "poor" market timing scenario. Even in my analysis, I showed periods whereby you could make money, but timing or random luck was involved.

The points you picked were just prior to the previous gold bubble (hence a low entry point) and in the midst of the current gold bubble (hence high exit point). You have reinforced my argument that timing matters.

Fool's Gold (Part 2)

Gold as a "preserver of wealth" implies that it keeps up with inflation, which (other than for short periods depending on when you bought it), this is not true.

As far as the "One oz of gold has always bought approx. 600 loaves of bread," where I live, a standard loaf costs around $2.89 and has for a couple of years. Prior to that, over the past 8 years, bread was around $1.80 - $2.30 (where I live) while gold was ~$230-$650. So this is about 100-300 loaves. Gold has outpaced inflation during the past decade, but only because the bull market began right around that time. If you go back into the 1990s, 1 oz of gold bought even fewer "loaves of bread."

All of this talk of gold being a long-term "safe haven" is not true. It is a short-term safe haven. Timing matters unless you live forever. Otherwise, you face liquidity risk.

Fool's Gold (Part 2)

By the way, if you are looking for something that holds up against inflation, I would look to oil; specifically oil trusts. When gold became decoupled from the dollar in the '70s, oil took its place. If something is linked to the dollar, it stands a much better chance of hedging against inflation. But oil can also be very volatile so it too is best traded or at least the positions should be managed. I do own some oil trusts and I will be looking to buy more as crude prices continue to fall back in line with supply-demand.

Fool's Gold (Part 2)

I don't trade currencies. It's gambling. I have no bias either way for gold. I only deal with helping others make money, regardless whether that means gold/stock market will go up or down.

Gold a commodity? Not exactly. Gold is as much of a commodity as crude oil. Neither exactly fits the bill as say wheat or copper because the later two are driven primarily by supply-demand dynamics. Gold and crude are often driven by geopolitical variables and extensive market manipulation in addition to supply-demand.

I owned gold last year but I don't now, nor have I recommended it to my clients (nor am I recommending a short position).

I think you need to read part 3. "Holding up against a declining market" only matters if you must stay in the market. The best way to protect yourself against a delcining market is to stay out of the market. The best use of gold as an investment is to hedge against declines in the broad market, but even these are short-term hedging positions. www.avaresearch.com/ar...

"Wealth for the ages"? As data shows, gold does not hold up anywhere close to inflation. Long-term holders of a gold face significant reduction in their principal. I have shown that conclusively. I showed it for 1980-1998. I even showed it over the past two years. Use any chart you want. The result will be the same.

I do not feel the gold bubble will burst anytime soon. I would be surprised if it did begin its downward cycle before 2014. I would be very surprised if the gold bull market ended by next year. In the meantime, I feel gold will go significantly higher, but that is not the point. The point is that investors need to understand that:

(1) Gold is NOT a hedge against inflation, so buy-and-HOARD mentality is not recommended. You need to prepare in advance for the downward cycle.

(2) The higher the price goes, the more cautious you should be. At current prices, you should not be buying more gold as it climbs higher. You should be managing your position. If you are not trading the volatility, you are really missing out on much of gold's investment value.

These are the facts.

Those who fail to understand my message are likely the same ones who get stuck when markets turn from bull to bear. Remember, everything pumped out by the financial media is designed to make sure you get stuck in a bear market. That is one reason why almost everyone does.

If you bother to critically analyze what these extremist marketing guys say about gold, one who understands the realities I present can easily make them look like the fools/liars/manipulators they are.

Once again, I have no bias, I do not sell securities or gold. I sell investment intelligence. All others are simply marketers. They don't need to be right and they rarely are. All they need to do is convince you they know what they are talking about. That is how they make money. I need to be right and I frequently am. That is how I make money.

Interview with Peter Schiff: Reflating the Bubble

Commenter "yellowhoard" knows the real deal. I find it amazing how the commenters are quoting guys like Roubini and Gross without realizing these guys are lost in the woods. Sure, for naive investors they may seem like they are ahead of the curve, but truly sophisticated investors don't pay attention to them. You all believe they should be listened to because the media has told you that you should. That's how they media makes money - more audience = higher ad revenues.

It's shocking how green people remain, even after the 2 biggest bubble implosions on earth in less than 10 years.

Here's the important rule you will ever learn so write it down: you will never receive any truly valuable investment guidance from a single person who is a "friend" of the mainstream media. The media would never allow such an expert to provide sufficient value to help you because they work for Wall Street.

Interview with Peter Schiff: Reflating the Bubble

Maybe the guy should have asked the question, how is it that the "chief investment strategist" of a brokerage firm can have a clue what's really going on if he is spending most of his time selling snake oil on TV and other marketing activities. That's okay, I already know the answer.

As the facts show, Schiff got too many things wrong. When oil was nearing $150, prices would not come down. He said China wouldn't get hit. etc.

In fact, Peter's rendition of this mess is not only one-dimensional, but lacks the comprehensiveness required to provide real value. Perhaps that is why his clients did so poorly last year. It's sad to see so many sheep out there.

Schiff isn't taken seriously by leading investors. I know this because I advise them. He is the "expert" for the sheep who go to CNBC and FBN for financial advice.

Anyone who has read my book (which was released before Schiff's) knows who the real expert is who truly predicted things.

Dow in Secular Bear Market When Priced in Ounces of Gold

My friend, the fact is that the US stock market has been in a secular bear market since 2001, without factoring in the price of gold. And it will remain in this corrective market for several more years.

Now, when adjusted for the price of gold or the dollar's slide, the market is much worse.

Is the Equities Party Over?

In a May 5 article on SA, I advised investors to sell the market (Stay Clear of Traditional Asset Classes)

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At the time, the Dow was around 13,100.

Stay Clear of Traditional Asset Classes

Dogtownsurf, I tried to warn investors the market was going to sell off. Since the article was posted a month ago, the Dow is down by nearly 900 points. Yet, as you can see, rather than take my advice and sell, many of these people would rather take cheap shots at me. This gives you an idea about the general audience on Seeking Alpha and it is one reason why I don't even bother to waste my time posting here anymore. The other reason is due to the fact that SA censors articles. They will only post material that has daily trading implications, which prevents any commentary about bigger picture events or things expected down the road. In short, I have come to realize that SA caters to the same people who waste time watching Cramer and other trash on CNBC, and I want to distance myself as far from that trash as possible.

You are right on both accounts - I try to be conservative so as not to disappoint. I find my success rate on predictions is extremely high when I am conservative. Yet, to many I seem extreme. remarkable isn't it? And yes indeed - no one in the position to fix things is. Indeed, I am sure Volcker is puking in disgust as he watches Bernanke intentionally destroy the dollar, along with the opportunities Americans once claimed made this nation filled with hope. At least you have the California coast to enjoy - something the Fed cannot easily destroy.

Stay Clear of Traditional Asset Classes

Wrong Middle. Healthcare is NOT going up due to boomer demographics. Boomers have not even turned 65 yet. Boomer demographics over the next 20 years WILL make the problems worse, namely due to the crisis in chronic disease management, which already constitutes over 70% of all healthcare expenses. But right now the costs are due to the excessive profiteering by the healthcare mafia – HMOs, drug companies, device makers, etc. This is a fact.

How is it that the U.S. spends 18% of GDP on healthcare and has the highest rate of medical errors, 50 million without coverage, nearly 1 million medically-related bankruptcies each year, and a ranking of 37th by the WHO – yet, most of the rest of the world has healthcare expenditures ranging from 6-8% of GDP, with virtually no fraud, less waste, much fewer medical errors, and much better rankings? Answer: a healthcare "free-for-all" among the providers who focus on profits and often sacrafice quality care.

In fact, according to studies from John’s Hopkins (Dr. Starfield--google it), due to medical errors, physicians are now the #3 cause of death in America.

Stay Clear of Traditional Asset Classes

In response to fredlee....I appreciate your comments, and I agree with most of what you said - in all 3 of your comments...Except the part about me being naive about the effect of lobbyists on the healthcare industry. My core technological expertise is healthcare. Understand that I was limited to what I could mention about it without distracting too much. As you can see, my article was quite long as it is.

The problems with healthcare are numerous; so much in fact that most people think they realize what the problems are, yet they overlook so many others. Without addressing all of the core problems, can't possibly understand potential solutions. But certainly, the healthcare lobbyists - the largest most powerful lobbyists groups in Washington - have a big role in the healthcare crisis; namely, making sure that Washington stays away from price controls. And cost containment is perhaps the biggest problem in healthcare because high costs limit access which prevents more from having coverage, which increases the number of medical bankruptcies. You point about eating healthy is well taken and I completely agree. The food industry must be held more accountable for poisoning the food supply.

That said, I feel that I do understand the full complexity of the problems that have created a healthcare crisis. And am currently working on what I hope to be a groundbreaking book, geared for investors that introduces telemedicine as part of the solution. Perhaps in the future I will address healthcare as it relates to investments.

As far as investing in physical gold, while I do see value in that approach, I did not feel it was relevant to most readers of Seeking Alpha since the site appears to be geared for stock market investors. I guess I was wrong!

buying and holding the physical gold has both advantages and disadvantages. First, you have to worry about storing it in a safe place or else you will have to pay to have it stored. Second, you won't be able to take advantage of the tremendous volatility swings. If you are a good trader you can make alot of money trading it. Finally, it is not nearly as liquid as gold ETFs and you have to pay a spread to buy and sell it.

HOWEVER, the great thing about holding physical gold is that it prevents one from trading it. Even the best traders can get shut out after failing to get back in right before a huge rally. And it could soar from there. In addition, trading it will create a big tax liability which some won't be prepared to meet without hardship.

Finally, you should understand that the gold ETFs are supposed to be buying the physical gold in accordance with demand for the ETF. So buying the physical gold yourself won't increase the price due to a supply-demand imbalance.

HOWVER, no one really knows for certain whether or not the ETFs really hold all the gold they claim since the audits only check for paperwork.

In conclusion, for some, holding physical gold is the best way to go. For others, managing a gold position in ETFs is preferred. As for silver, I actually think it has more upside at current levels than gold. But I think it will heat up later. Right now, gold is on fire due to the banking crisis.

For those of you who feel I've understated the potential disaster, you should know that I try to make conservative forecasts. For everyone else, I appreciate your comments and feedback, especially the generous compliments.

Stay Clear of Traditional Asset Classes

Magman, just so there is no confusion, SKF is an Ultrashort Financial EFT. Hence, to take a short posture in financials, one would buy (not short) it.

As for the treatment options to avert this potential economic catastrophe, Washington must restructure free trade and healthcare, America's biggest problems. To enable this, voters must demand an end to lobbyists donations. As long as money flows from corporations to Washington, America will be controlled by corporate America and working-class Americans will suffer.