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Mike Walker  

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  • Buy Chevron Now Before It Takes Off [View article]
    CVX with a 4% yield isn't a bad bet - I'm long and generating additional yield writing the 106 calls.
    May 25, 2015. 04:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Close To Retirement And Under-Saved, What Should You Do? [View article]
    Age 60, $200K saved in a 401K

    I would say a lot depends on factors not mentioned

    Credit Card debt
    Mortgage debt
    Pension, if any
    Family financial support, if any
    Personal health situation

    But that overall, the individuals outlook for a long and luxurious retirement - is not very good.
    May 14, 2015. 09:10 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Did U.S. shale blink first? [View news story]
    Actually, the Gulf countries never really damaged their intended targets.

    Russia is going strong, the cost to drill a well is largely in rubles, which simply re adjusted to the match the price of oil. Production and drilling has not been impacted.

    U.S. Shale - rig count is down and so is the growth in production, but nothing has happened to baseline production, which is being maintained with the lower rig counts focused on 'core of the core' areas. It is clear that based on comments from EOG, PXD, et al that U.S. Shake is poised to resume a growth trajectory in the event of even a marginal rise in the price of crude, say $70 / bbl WTI.

    What the Gulf countries did damage was their fellow, more marginal OPEC members as well as forward planning on most mega projects. It will be interesting to see if the Non Gulf OPEC members 'just take it' in the June meeting. After all - what's the purpose in having a cartel if not to control prices ?
    May 14, 2015. 08:57 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anadarko Petroleum: Time To Take Profits After Its Wider Q1 Loss [View article]
    But at .55 cents estimated earnings for all of 2015 --- well that's a PE of 170. Granted, these stocks trade on metrics other than PE - but that's a steep PE.

    You are discounting oil getting back to $90 by the end of the year. That's going to be tough.

    Al mentioned that there is s$100BB in private equity money just waiting to place into energy as soon as economics dictate. Which means that its going to be a while before prices go back up. And Al was agreement with that assessment.

    One screwup that Al tried to justify is APC went into 2015 with zero oil production hedged. That decision is biting big time right now.
    May 5, 2015. 12:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anadarko not in talks to sell Mozambique assets, CEO says [View news story]
    Well that's not exactly what Al Walker said.

    What he said was that Anadarko had not engaged an investment banker firm to 'shop' Mozambique.

    Then he went into a five minute sales pitch on how great the asset was.

    Al specifically did not rule out that APC had not engaged in talks with say, XOM, to buy Mozambique.

    The translation of this was ' Well yes we have held talks with XOM on Mozambique and they have sent over geology / reservoir teams to review the data room. But the offer XOM gave us was not acceptable. So let me talk this dog up and see what XOM comes back with'.

    In the real world " Everything is for sale, all of the time "

    May 5, 2015. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anadarko Petroleum: Time To Take Profits After Its Wider Q1 Loss [View article]
    Looks like we got canned answers on Mozambique and Yeti.

    Mozambique - five minute discourse on how valuable the asset is and how they are not formally shopping Mozambique. Translation - 'well we talked to XOM about selling but they wouldn't give us a decent offer so let's keep talking this up'.

    Yeti - under appraisal. 'No estimates on reserves possible'. Neither was any color given on the Yeti sidetrack drilled down dip of the discovery.
    May 5, 2015. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anadarko Petroleum: Time To Take Profits After Its Wider Q1 Loss [View article]
    No long calls - short stock, short puts

    The short puts are to provide income / provide partial hedge while waiting for the short stock position to come in. You are correct - the profit potential of the short position is capped at $90 / share.

    I like to bat for singles and doubles - leave the home runs or someone else.

    Looks like stock is up in the pre-trading hours.
    May 5, 2015. 08:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Anadarko Petroleum: Time To Take Profits After Its Wider Q1 Loss [View article]
    Agree. The call tomorrow is going to be important in relation to what is said about selling down Mozambique (to XOM ?) and the Yeti discovery / sidetrack. These were the two big events that drove the stock higher in April.

    disclosure - short stock and short the 90 May puts.
    May 4, 2015. 07:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Straight Talk On The 4% Rule [View article]

    The drawbacks with never withdrawing capital are

    You'll retire later than you need to

    You'll leave a big inheritance

    But you are correct that you'll never go broke.
    May 1, 2015. 03:00 PM | 36 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamond Offshore Fleet Status After Pemex, Petrobras And Dana Decision [View article]
    Usually there will be a cancellation clause in the contract with corresponding demobilization fee.

    The operators are making a bet that they can demobilize the rig and pay the cancellation fees and then re-mobilize at a lower rate when oil prices improve.
    Feb 24, 2015. 07:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Diamond Offshore Fleet Status After Pemex, Petrobras And Dana Decision [View article]
    The oil companies are taking advantage of the dip to renegotiate contracts and the rig contract always is first in line for discount discussions. Most of these cancellations are the result of earlier negotiations, in which the drilling contractor failed to 'voluntarily' reduce rates and now the operator is moving to stage two of talks and actively threatening or carrying out releasing the rig.

    its funny that Saudi targeted shale oil and Russia with the price crash, but shale oil and Russia look to be minimally impacted thus far. Most of the pain is being felt by conventional producers in North Sea, Africa, SE Asia and S America - including most of the Non Gulf OPEC members.
    Feb 24, 2015. 06:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Examination Of The Halliburton, Baker Hughes Merger: Part 3 [View article]
    I am long BHI, and short HAL 1.12 shares for every long BHI. I got in early when the spread was $8 - now it is $14 so given a potential gain of $19 for each long share of BHI (provided the deal goes through) - this arbitrage play is not as attractive as it once was.
    Feb 16, 2015. 09:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil And Gas Stocks - Did We Just Pass The Inflection Point? [View article]
    Although I have long positions in APC, CLR, CXO and PXD that are hedged with covered ATM call options - I still have a gut feel - and for whatever's that worth - that we still have a major downdraft in WTI sometime during this spring.

    That would be the time to push all your chips to the center.
    Feb 3, 2015. 02:52 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How iPhone Demand Could Impact Apple's Q2 Guidance [View article]
    Q2 will also likely encompass the initial iWatch launch. 3MM iWatch x $500 ASP is $1.5BB incremental Q2 revenue not yet recognized by analysts.
    Jan 7, 2015. 04:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At What Oil Price Do U.S. Shales No Longer 'Work?' [View article]
    On the front line (West Africa) what we are seeing is 25% drilling budget CAPEX reduction as the initial reaction with further reduction / expansion in wait and see mode.
    Dec 31, 2014. 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment