Humana: Misunderstood And 35% Undervalued [View article]
Jake,
Much appreciated. That's a fair point - there are several variables at play here and politics could change.
That said, I think it's priced for a very unfavorable operating environment. That should limit the downside. I also think we're looking at 35% near-term upside; if things play out the way I think they will, I think the shares have considerably more upside.
The U.S. Doesn't Have A Debt Crisis: Don't Let It Scare You Out Of Stocks [View article]
Much obliged.
We've got an amazing opportunity to take advantage of super-low rates right now and invest in our infrastructure - it's a complete necessity. Shame there isn't the political support for it.
The U.S. Doesn't Have A Debt Crisis: Don't Let It Scare You Out Of Stocks [View article]
Drummer,
Agreed.
Snoopy,
Why would you add the Fed balance sheet to the national debt? It doesn't work that way - losses on the Fed balance sheet simply become deferred assets. Instead of sending profits to the treasury, the Fed rebuilds its working capital deficit until it can resume payments to the treasury.
The U.S. Doesn't Have A Debt Crisis: Don't Let It Scare You Out Of Stocks [View article]
So while he didn't articulate himself very well, answering the question "why aren't there many female macro traders" with "becoming a mother is very distracting" doesn't sound very sexist to me.
Women like Linda Raschke have done extremely well in the macro game, but motherhood seems like a plausible rationale, given the specifics of the field.
The U.S. Doesn't Have A Debt Crisis: Don't Let It Scare You Out Of Stocks [View article]
You're throwing around a lot of "what ifs."
What if Abenomics works? What if devaluing the yen meaningfully drives exports and increases domestic activity? What if the 4.1% GDP growth they just announced is here to stay? What if rates on the JGB stay right where they are or even move down, not so unlikely given the demographic and capital flows from Europe?
There are a lot of very smart people on the side that says Japan has a good shot of getting out of this. I think it's too early to tell, but I know anyone who's convinced either way is close-minded and rolling the dice.
The U.S. Doesn't Have A Debt Crisis: Don't Let It Scare You Out Of Stocks [View article]
"All this reckless money printing behavior will put more and more people into poverty and a lower standard of living."
Sorry, but no. Things aren't as black and white as "money printing is bad."
Moreover, '87 was indeed a blip that was exacerbated by program selling. You're attacking a straw man - it obviously was chaotic at the time, as I said, but in the grand scheme of things, it was a blip.
Humana: Misunderstood And 35% Undervalued [View article]
Humana: Misunderstood And 35% Undervalued [View article]
Humana: Misunderstood And 35% Undervalued [View article]
Much appreciated. That's a fair point - there are several variables at play here and politics could change.
That said, I think it's priced for a very unfavorable operating environment. That should limit the downside. I also think we're looking at 35% near-term upside; if things play out the way I think they will, I think the shares have considerably more upside.
Thanks for the comment.
Buy Citigroup On Overblown Currency Concerns [View article]
I understand your skepticism, but Tepper has continued to hold a huge block of Citi shares and has offered up some interesting commentary.
Quarter to quarter who knows, but he's got the underlying 'theme' of this market correct.
Buy Citigroup On Overblown Currency Concerns [View article]
Emerging market currencies have been in a slow-motion crash; I highly doubt Citibank is as poorly hedged as Peabody is implying.
The U.S. Doesn't Have A Debt Crisis: Don't Let It Scare You Out Of Stocks [View article]
The U.S. Doesn't Have A Debt Crisis: Don't Let It Scare You Out Of Stocks [View article]
We've got an amazing opportunity to take advantage of super-low rates right now and invest in our infrastructure - it's a complete necessity. Shame there isn't the political support for it.
The U.S. Doesn't Have A Debt Crisis: Don't Let It Scare You Out Of Stocks [View article]
The U.S. Doesn't Have A Debt Crisis: Don't Let It Scare You Out Of Stocks [View article]
Totally spot on regarding the "hallmarks."
The U.S. Doesn't Have A Debt Crisis: Don't Let It Scare You Out Of Stocks [View article]
Agreed.
Snoopy,
Why would you add the Fed balance sheet to the national debt? It doesn't work that way - losses on the Fed balance sheet simply become deferred assets. Instead of sending profits to the treasury, the Fed rebuilds its working capital deficit until it can resume payments to the treasury.
We're also not running $1.3 T deficits...
The U.S. Doesn't Have A Debt Crisis: Don't Let It Scare You Out Of Stocks [View article]
Women like Linda Raschke have done extremely well in the macro game, but motherhood seems like a plausible rationale, given the specifics of the field.
The U.S. Doesn't Have A Debt Crisis: Don't Let It Scare You Out Of Stocks [View article]
What if Abenomics works? What if devaluing the yen meaningfully drives exports and increases domestic activity? What if the 4.1% GDP growth they just announced is here to stay? What if rates on the JGB stay right where they are or even move down, not so unlikely given the demographic and capital flows from Europe?
There are a lot of very smart people on the side that says Japan has a good shot of getting out of this. I think it's too early to tell, but I know anyone who's convinced either way is close-minded and rolling the dice.
The U.S. Doesn't Have A Debt Crisis: Don't Let It Scare You Out Of Stocks [View article]
You can't stay scared all the time. Stocks are up 150% from the lows; stocks could fall 25% tomorrow and we'd still be up nearly 100%.
The U.S. Doesn't Have A Debt Crisis: Don't Let It Scare You Out Of Stocks [View article]
Sorry, but no. Things aren't as black and white as "money printing is bad."
Moreover, '87 was indeed a blip that was exacerbated by program selling. You're attacking a straw man - it obviously was chaotic at the time, as I said, but in the grand scheme of things, it was a blip.
The U.S. Doesn't Have A Debt Crisis: Don't Let It Scare You Out Of Stocks [View article]