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Mike Young  

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  • Rite Aid: The Little Engine That Tries [View article]
    Long Player - nice article. Completely agree with you on the specialty point - RAD is trailing competitors, despite this clearly being the source of growth in pharma & a potential edge for retail pharmacy chains (vs. mail order) for the past decade.

    Other interesting point: "Allow that competitor to continue to operate independently after the acquisition, and then gradually turn stores over to the new division to manage and see if the profit of the stores turned over increases."

    In other words, are you saying to replace senior management and/or pharmacy management?

    I do agree that the story has shifted from a financial one (valuation allow reversals and other tax-benefits, removal of one-time or non-recurring expenses, etc.) to more operational issues. Belief in management is becoming increasingly important.
    Jul 28, 2015. 01:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid Investors Should Wait On Shares [View article]
    See my link above.
    Feb 12, 2015. 11:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 6 Ways Rite Aid's Acquisition Of EnvisionRx Will Take Its Stock Higher [View article]
    Rad doesn't have the footprint to deliver a national "integrated" offering without including other pharmacies, and Envision is tiny in the PBM world in terms of revenue, lives, scripts, etc. So they have to work with "partners".
    Feb 12, 2015. 10:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid Investors Should Wait On Shares [View article]
    Actually, RAD got URAC accreditation itself in specialty pharmacy last year...
    http://bit.ly/1KNKwWk
    Feb 12, 2015. 10:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid Investors Should Wait On Shares [View article]
    It states clearly in the press release that they are issuing unsecured notes...
    http://bit.ly/16XXX6E

    "Rite Aid expects to finance the $1.8 billion cash portion of the consideration through proceeds from the issuance of unsecured notes prior to the closing of the acquisition."
    Feb 12, 2015. 10:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid Sets Itself Up For A Big Fiscal Q4 [View article]
    Thanks for the reply. I totally get and agree w/ you on the margin expansion argument...in fact, I made the very same point in my $RAD pro article last year: http://seekingalpha.co...

    Was just curious about your valuation approach, so thanks for sharing your thoughts.

    Long $RAD...hopefully we'll all make some big $$!
    Jan 31, 2015. 12:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid Sets Itself Up For A Big Fiscal Q4 [View article]
    Nice article Brian. One issue you didn't address though is forward estimates and guidance. I think in terms of stock price movement, the FY16 estimates and management guidance will be much more important than Q4 results (assuming they are released simultaneously as they usually are).

    Analysts' consensus estimate is $0.44 for next year (up from $0.43), which puts the fwd-P/E ratio @ ~16.3. This is too low in my opinion, given $RAD's earnings growth vs S&P, but even 18x puts it below $8. So my question is are you simply applying a higher multiple (20x, 25x, etc.) to future earnings, or do you think analysts' estimates are too low for FY16?

    Thanks!
    Jan 30, 2015. 12:33 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid Poised For Long-Term Growth [View article]
    @GameKing13 - unless the monthly sales #'s change sig, I don't think there's anything until Q4 release along with guidance for next fiscal year.
    Jan 29, 2015. 07:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Toll Brothers Delivers Growth, But Not Enough For Investors [View article]
    Thanks DoctoRx! I agree that patient money may have a play here.
    Dec 12, 2014. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid: Still A Long-Term Opportunity [View article]
    I agree that continued and/or accelerating revenue growth could move the stock towards its intrinsic value, as well as strong earnings next quarter. If EPS next quarter is anywhere near analysts' estimates of $0.09, or even the lower end (~$0.05), you could see the start to move higher in anticipation of a full-year beat on EPS.

    RAD has seen some improvement in accessing the unsecured credit market, so if it can do another major refinancing (>$500M) in this space, you could not only see maturities pushed out, but interest expenses decline. It will probably be a couple yrs minimum though before they hit their target leverage ratio and really can improve their credit profile overall.
    Sep 23, 2014. 01:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid: Still A Long-Term Opportunity [View article]
    Differentdrummer - WAG went through the same issue just this summer, but it was overlooked by most people (including Cramer) b/c of the inversion (or lack of) news. Their CFO was let go after it became clear that the original forecast was off by >$1B. Interestingly, CVS doesn't seem to have had any problems with their forecasts, but time will tell for sure...
    Sep 20, 2014. 06:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid: Still A Long-Term Opportunity [View article]
    Was down around $5.17-5.19 earlier today before bouncing back up. I agree that it will continue to be a volatile holding though, so may have even better entry point in the future...
    Sep 19, 2014. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid: Still A Long-Term Opportunity [View article]
    Thanks for sharing! I definitely think that management is going to be dealing with a lot of criticism over the problems with guidance. But that also makes me think that: 1) they will error towards being overly conservative going forward or even with the current guidance; and 2) they will be very focused on executing given the pressure and scrutiny, especially sense they were already getting a lot of investor "input" over the past 1-2 years. I guess time will tell.
    Sep 18, 2014. 09:51 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid: Still A Long-Term Opportunity [View article]
    What's your timeframe for your RAD investment, given the lower guidance? Do you think the stock is stuck in the ditch until Mar 2015, or other potential catalyst that could reverse sentiment before then? Thanks.
    Sep 18, 2014. 09:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rite Aid: Still A Long-Term Opportunity [View article]
    @che10011 - it's definitely not a slam-dunk, and management losing credibility doesn't help. But I also wouldn't be surprised if earnings come in at the high end, or even beat the full-year forecasts.
    Sep 18, 2014. 07:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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