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  • Mondelez: Bill Ackman's' Massive Bet Officially Cheap [View article]
    Steve:

    I came close to pulling the trigger at sub $42 but then decided I could wait, particularly with the fall volatility season upon us. I like MDLZ as a long-term hold (it looks like we both obtained it from the KRFT/MDLZ spin off).
    Aug 28, 2015. 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mondelez: Bill Ackman's' Massive Bet Officially Cheap [View article]
    Regarding the P/E:

    The reason MDLZ is attractive to some investors here is because of the aggressive cost-cutting measures MDLZ has in place, which are expected to grow the bottom line substantially. Morningstar states that their conservative expectations are MDLZ increases its operating margins to 17.0% by 2019 from current levels of 15.8% and sees organic sales increasing from 4% to 5%. Those expectations imply a forward P/E of 23x 2016 earnings. Morningstar sees 60% of the cost savings moving to the bottom line.

    Ackerman and Peltz also see this potential, and that is why they are buying. So investors buying MDLZ here are betting on increased efficiency and organic growth potential to drive the bottom line. MDLZ is a growth stock here, not a dividend play (although the dividend will likely be increased annually as well).

    I'm personally in MDLZ at $25/share. I would like to purchase more below $40.
    Aug 28, 2015. 11:28 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Philip Morris: The Healthy Cigarette [View article]
    Nice article and agree with your bullish take. I recently added PM to my portfolio on the pullback. I have been waiting awhile to get PM at a yield above 5%. Goal achieved. Now I'll sit back and let it drip.

    Best,

    MM
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:55 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Driving Up Altria's Earnings? [View article]
    Yeah, I just did the conversion and $10 Canadian dollars comes out $7.53 US. That's about inline with what some US smokers pay, depending on where you live.
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Driving Up Altria's Earnings? [View article]
    bob:

    $47.50 US for a pack of cigs? That is a lot of money. How much of that cost is due excise tax? I wager quite a bit. Governments are hypocritical in their views on tobacco. They claim to raise taxes to reduce smoking, but what their really after is the tax revenue. Governments do not want smoking to go away.
    Aug 28, 2015. 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Is Driving Up Altria's Earnings? [View article]
    Nice article. I'm long on both MO and PM and have no worries about the declining smoking rates. Declining rates simply means that smokers as a percentage of the total population are declining. But what that metric fails to indicate is that the absolute number of smokers is actually INCREASING worldwide due to global population growth.

    For example, a 2014 study published in the Journal of the American Medical Association (JAMA) found that although global daily smoking rates declined by 25% for men and 42% for women from 1980 to 2012, "The substantial population growth over this period contributed to a 41% increase in the number of male daily smokers and a 7% increase for female smokers. The number of cigarettes consumed worldwide increased by 26% during the same period, confirming that the global tobacco market continued to grow."

    In addition, this study also showed that the rate of decrease in smoking is slowing. The study authors stated that:

    "During the past 3 decades, the pace of reduction in prevalence was greatest between 1996 and 2006 but was subsequently followed by a period of slower reductions at the global level."

    Source: http://bit.ly/1PWMNk4

    Bottom line: smoking is not going away anytime soon.
    Aug 28, 2015. 08:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Your SWAN REIT Really A SWAN REIT? [View article]
    Adam: Yes, I agree. Sound fundamentals are always important. But if one has a solid company at a fair price that you can live with, ignore the volatility (or buy more on the big dips!).
    Aug 27, 2015. 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Your SWAN REIT Really A SWAN REIT? [View article]
    Adam:

    A very-well written article that provides investors something to think about in terms of what kind of REIT investor they want to be, i.e., high-yield low growth or low-yield high growth (or a diversified barbell approach). This can apply to stocks as well as REITs.

    In any case, for those that are truly focused on growing income, then the recent and periodic volatility that accompanies REITs should be of no concern whatsoever, as those investors should be watching the person steadily rising on the escalator (annual distribution growth) and ignoring the background noise of stock price volatility.

    Best,

    MM
    Aug 27, 2015. 09:51 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney's Sell-Off Is A Gift [View article]
    Morningstar increased its fair value estimate to $134 after earnings.

    I've been long DIS since $49. Added more at $79 and again yesterday at $99.50.

    May the force be with you.
    Aug 21, 2015. 09:53 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney, Time Warner lower as Bernstein downgrades on fee worries [View news story]
    WMX:

    I added exactly 75 shares at $99.50 each.
    Aug 20, 2015. 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney, Time Warner lower as Bernstein downgrades on fee worries [View news story]
    I added 75 shares of DIS at $99.50 in AH trading.

    I remain very long DIS.
    Aug 20, 2015. 06:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney, Time Warner lower as Bernstein downgrades on fee worries [View news story]
    I view this recent pullback as being a very healthy pruning that is setting up DIS for a strong rebound. There were a lot of momentum investors chasing performance on DIS, and those are the weak hands that are selling now. DIS is still a compelling growth story and long-term investors should have no fear about this outstanding company.
    Aug 20, 2015. 12:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disney, Time Warner lower as Bernstein downgrades on fee worries [View news story]
    I already have a lot of DIS, but seriously thinking of adding more here.
    Aug 20, 2015. 10:18 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chevron: Searching For A Bottom [View article]
    Richard: This was an excellent and well-reasoned article.

    Long CVX and (and lowering my cost basis).
    Aug 18, 2015. 02:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Comcast Competes Surprisingly Well With Disney [View article]
    Yes, Comcast does own theme parks. Of the top ten largest by attendance in the U.S., Comcast has 3 (Universal Studios in FL and CA, and Islands of Adventure in FL). Of the remaining 7, Sea World is one and Disney has the rest.

    Source: http://bit.ly/1NhB9lk

    Cable may be changing its packaging, but it won't go away completely. People still want to watch stuff no matter how it gets there. Comcast has both content and multiple means of getting it there (and they aren't just twiddling there thumbs waiting for cable to die).
    Aug 18, 2015. 01:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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