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  • Does Reading Seeking Alpha Really Help Beat The Market? A 5-Year Meta-Analysis [View article]
    "but for simplicity's sake, I am going to view alpha simply as outperformance against a baseline index, such as the Dow Jones, Nasdaq, or S&P 500."

    Well that's cheating isn't it? In an upward trending market, high beta outperforms low beta. We all knew that before you wrote this.

    Why not re-run this using a real (i.e. risk-adjusted) measure of return like Sharpe or Sortino ratios? I suspect the results would be very different.
    Mar 10, 2015. 01:11 PM | 16 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Futures spike as Greece/EU reportedly come to terms [View news story]

    Get some Twizzler black licorice. Using it as a straw, suck up some Everclear (or vodka). That's roughly what Ouzo is.
    Feb 11, 2015. 06:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Economy Continues In Recession [View article]

    If you sell something to China, it is the absolute number that matters, not the percentage number.

    For example, if you sell cars, car purchase only went up about 5% last year, whereas they went up about 20% in 2004. 20% of 2004 sales was only about 400K. 5% of 2014 sales was about 1 million(!)

    Notice the difference?
    Feb 11, 2015. 10:40 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Economy Continues In Recession [View article]
    In absolute terms, the Chinese economy will grow more this year than it ever has. 7% of the 2014 economy is more than 14% of the 2004 economy.
    Feb 10, 2015. 10:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Greece's Tsipras rejects extension [View news story]
    Tsipras is making the bet that Europeans will fail to get together, act decisively, and do the right thing.

    150,000 dead Bosnians says that's a pretty good bet.
    Feb 8, 2015. 02:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Oil Shock? [View article]

    Gee whiz. Does anybody edit this stuff? It's largely incoherent and full of grammatical errors. A few examples:

    "The cutback in exploration and even production, and the increase in demand as a result of the oil price crash will work slowly to rebalance the market, at a considerable."

    "Since cheap oil is progressively replaced by more expensive oil and overall demand is still growing, There can be little doubt that the oil price is on a secular increasing trend."
    Feb 7, 2015. 04:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks give up gains as ECB rejects Greek paper as acceptable collateral [View news story]
    I thought that was "Geeks bearing grift."

    or maybe the German version:

    "Griechisches Gift"
    Feb 4, 2015. 05:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Germany, ECB take tough line against Greece [View news story]
    If each of 11 million Greeks bought an entire pound of gold, its impact on global demand (~12 Billion oz/quarter) would be inconsequential.
    Jan 31, 2015. 03:36 PM | 15 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: Is The Widening Contango A Precursor To Even Lower Prices? [View article]

    Anytime there's a big rapid decline in prices, there's a contango shift. This was a spectacularly huge and rapid decline, so the contango shift was big.

    When oil prices go up rapidly, there's a backwardation shift. All this is telling you is that the short term elasticity of oil supply and demand is low. Nothing more. Trying to read into it something more about the direction of oil prices is Gartmanesque silliness.
    Jan 26, 2015. 05:54 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taxi Medallions Are Safe Because Uber Will Implode [View article]
    "They are getting into a car, alone, with a strange man, who has their credit card information, and home address."

    And that's never the case with a regular taxi? Really?

    Why here's a case from just today

    In England there is an epidemic of Taxi rapes:

    They estimate 22 sexual assaults EACH WEEK JUST IN LONDON. That's Taxis, not UBER.
    Jan 26, 2015. 12:05 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Swatch boss: "Tsunami" just hit Swiss exporters [View news story]

    Just kidding. Actually, I am so going to eat weiswurst and blaue zipfel and wash it down with bockbier.
    Jan 15, 2015. 04:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Swatch boss: "Tsunami" just hit Swiss exporters [View news story]
    In Switzerland, a Big Mac will cost you $7.30 vs. $4.80 in the U.S. Not quite as bad as you might think.

    It's only $4.20 in the EU. I am so going to Germany to eat some Big Macs.
    Jan 15, 2015. 11:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Everything Has Changed: Oil, Saudi Arabia, And The End Of OPEC [View article]
    Wow. A lawyer who is an expert in climatology AND petroleum engineering. I'm sure he has improved all of our lives with his contribution to "tax motivated energy financing"
    Jan 12, 2015. 11:03 PM | 31 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Euro Crash [View article]
    "Since the eurozone runs a trade surplus, exports to the rest of the world are in the order of 20-21%. "

    vs. 13% for the U.S.
    Jan 8, 2015. 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Coming Euro Crash [View article]
    "...the eurozone is a relatively closed economy..."

    A ridiculous claim that is completely detached from facts and reality.

    Exports outside of the Eurozone account for 39% of its GDP:

    You call that closed?
    Jan 7, 2015. 02:50 PM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment