Seeking Alpha

MLP Trader

 
View MLP Trader's Comments BY TICKER:
  • The Silly Chile Trade Is Back And Bigger Than Ever [View article]
    Just as a followup - the premium on CH has now dropped to 2%.

    Since this article was posted, the total return on ECH has been +15.03%. The total return on CH has been -12.5%.


    http://bit.ly/1uHWAkW
    May 8 08:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silly Chile Trade Is Back And Bigger Than Ever [View article]
    Thanks for the kind words Owen,


    Unfortunately, I've got a long ways to go to make up for the Argent Energy Trust disaster:

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Apr 29 01:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silly Chile Trade Is Back And Bigger Than Ever [View article]
    It's hard to see from the chart above. However, the last time the premium spiked to 28%, it took a few days to drop below 20%; about a month to get to 10%; and about two months to get to 6%. I'm ok with that.
    Feb 3 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silly Chile Trade Is Back And Bigger Than Ever [View article]
    @convergence,
    This is all speculation of course, but I think someone was trying hard to keep it up. But there's only so much they can do. Even with the decline today, the premium is still over 26%. Any other holders at this point would be stupid not to liquidate everything and switch to ECH.
    If you look at the volume and the trades, there's a pretty good indication of what's going on. For the last part of January, volume was more than 3X normal. Today was no exception.
    Now, look at the specific trades: there were two attempts to spike the price today. Both of them failed. The big one was a 45,000 share block (nearly a day's normal volume) at 14:06. It sent the price soaring for all of 2 minutes. This followed an earlier effort starting at 11:00, for 25,000 shares. They brought the price up and tried to maintain it with an iceberg order. But eventually the sellers swallowed the iceberg.
    So what I see is someone trying desperately to prop up the price today -- and failing in the face of relentless selling. It looks like they spent about $800K in the effort.
    Here's the 13-G, BTW. Their fund holders should be asking them some hard questions. Like why the h??? are you buying assets for $1.30 on the dollar?
    http://bit.ly/LyokGo
    Jan 31 07:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silly Chile Trade Is Back And Bigger Than Ever [View article]
    As noted above, it is currently not possible. I managed to borrow some a week ago but haven't been able to borrow more. I keep trying. My past experience has been that there's nothing to borrow for quite a while and then, all of a sudden, 30 or 40 thousand shares become available. And of course, the stock price drops....
    Jan 30 07:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silly Chile Trade Is Back And Bigger Than Ever [View article]
    I was lucky to borrow shares last week. I haven't been able to get more since then. That's pretty amazing since the current short interest is only around 1/2 of 1 percent right now. I would check again in the morning.

    Incidentally, if you look at the filings for CH, you'll find that there is one fund manager that owns about 10%. If I had to guess, I would say they are propping up the price to hide their underperformance.
    Jan 29 03:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Silly Chile Trade Is Back And Bigger Than Ever [View article]

    The IPSA (the Chile Index) is off around 2% today, and the Chilean peso has dropped, so ECH is correctly reflecting the market.

    The rise in CH is a mystery. "A sucker born every minute" is my best guess. They see the dividend yield and think that it's a real dividend (rather than just a return of capital and previously realized capital gains).

    With today's movement, I would guess the premium is now around 35-36%.
    Jan 29 01:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chile At Silly Prices: Buy ECH; Short CH [View article]
    When you wrote this, the premium on CH was nearly 30%. Today it's only 10%. I think you made the right move.
    Sep 5 04:08 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chile At Silly Prices: Buy ECH; Short CH [View article]
    Definitely not calling you a fool. I was really alluding to the greater fool theory -- which is really the only reason for holding CH at the current premium
    Aug 21 04:31 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chile At Silly Prices: Buy ECH; Short CH [View article]

    "not glad I bought ECH, based on your recommendation"

    Yikes. I should have caught this right away. I don't make recommendations, since I'm not a registered investment adviser. All I do is play the blowhard on public forums, where opinions are usually worth what you've paid for them (nothing). I wouldn't make any purchases or sales based on something I've read on a public web site.
    Aug 19 08:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chile At Silly Prices: Buy ECH; Short CH [View article]
    Incidentally, CH's net asset value is now down to 11.62.

    http://yhoo.it/19ETkiq

    It actually dropped more than ECH.IV
    Aug 19 05:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chile At Silly Prices: Buy ECH; Short CH [View article]
    "They are going to fundamentally trade the same within very close ranges..."

    What is your basis for that claim? In its 17-year history, CH has traded at an average discount of nearly 10%. What makes you think it will continue trading at a 23% PREMIUM?

    http://bit.ly/1d0LvE9

    How many fools do you think will buy (or continue to own) a fund that is priced at 123% of its actual value?

    For my part, I can wait. Over CH's 17 year history, the premium has been over 15% for only a few months. Also, note that the premium was 29% when this article was published. It pretty much rang the bell.
    Aug 19 05:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chile At Silly Prices: Buy ECH; Short CH [View article]
    AND is an ETF so it has no silly premium like CH does.

    That being said, it is illiquid with only about 6000 shares trading daily.

    I am also not to keen on the overweight positions in Ecopetrol and Pacific Rubiales -- 15% of the portfolio in two fairly risky oil companies. That doesn't seem like great diversification.
    Aug 19 04:13 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chile At Silly Prices: Buy ECH; Short CH [View article]
    Thanks. This one is taking a bit longer than usual. However, the spread was 29% when this article was posted. Now it's down to about 20%.
    Aug 16 09:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chile At Silly Prices: Buy ECH; Short CH [View article]
    @ruk

    I forgot the more obvious answer: look up the ticker XXCHX on Yahoo. It gives you the actual value of CH's assets. If you look at the 5 year chart, you can see that the actual value of CH has dropped by 34.94% over 5 years.
    Aug 8 06:35 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on CH by MLP Trader
COMMENTS STATS
875 Comments
2,041 Likes