Seeking Alpha

Mobile Guru's  Instablog

Mobile Guru
Send Message
I am individual investor with over 35 years investing experience. I have traded almost everything you can over that time. I prefer investing in microcaps as there can be above average rewards along with higher risk. The areas I follow very closely are: Technology, Intellectual Property, Precious... More
My blog:
View Mobile Guru's Instablogs on:
  • Arianne Resources Furthers Advances Phosphate Deposit

    In a previous article back in January on Arianne Resources (, Arianne Resources On Big Fertilizer Stocks Radar, I discussed how Arianne was a potential takeover candidate by some of the biggest names in the fertilizer business. On Tuesday May 21st Arianne provided a further update on their development with a press release discussing additional pilot scale testing. This is one of the last pieces of the puzzle that locked into place with Arianne's announcing that their pilot scale metallurgical test confirmed a 39% P205 concentrate product with a 90% recovery rate. This news confirms that the Lac a Paul deposit can deliver one of the most sought-after phosphate concentrates worldwide. Arianne management has done a wonderful job of advancing this project and executing on the business plan. With the large, well attended annual fertilizer conference held in Chicago this past week, it is safe to presume that several of the majors have taken notice. In fact, the majors have allowed Arianne to do the "heavy lifting" by taking down obstacles, hurdles, and de-risking the project.

    (click to enlarge)

    Analysts predict that fertilizer companies will have a strong year of profitability this year. In particular, three very large phosphate producers, Mosaic (MOS), PotashCorp (POT) and CF Industries (CF) are expected to have huge cash flows this year. Mosaic is expected to deliver $3 billion in cash flow this fiscal year that could add to their current cash on hand of $3.3 billion and will give them quite a war chest to acquire a truly excellent proven phosphate deposit safely situated in North America. Arianne could probably be had on the low side for $250 million but with a few bidders chasing this cherry of a project the most likely number would be $350 million, or more than a triple from the current market cap. CF Industries is forecast to have cash flows of $3.3 billion, which when added to their current $2.2 billion on hand is a not-to-shabby $5.5 billion ready to invest on behalf of shareholders.

    (click to enlarge)

    Obviously a company the size of Arianne is not going to develop a property that could cost upwards of a billion dollars but with the excellent potential return and the extremely short payback that could happen with a unique property such as this even a billion dollar investment by a major is very likely once the final risks have been addressed in the Bank Feasibility study due this summer. At that point I would expect Arianne to start soliciting bids on who they will be selling the property to for further development.

    Which of the majors will be the first to start the bidding? Will the eventual victorious acquirer be a North American producer or will they let this high grade, high quality project slip through their fingers and be owned by the Russians, Indians, or Chinese, all of whom have a strong desire to add to phosphate reserves, invest for the long haul, and escape the Moroccan monopoly in global supply? Although it is hard to say at the moment the economics of the project only seem to be improving with the latest report and the eventual owner of this development will more than likely step forward in the next several months.

    Disclosure: I am long OTCPK:DRRSF.

    Tags: DRRSF, Long Ideas
    May 27 10:23 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Marathon Patent Investor Presentation

    Nice presentation by Marathon Patent from the B-Riley Conference yesterday.

    Disclosure: I am long OTCQB:MARA.

    May 21 10:58 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Looks Like Marathon Patent Is Starting To Make Some Noise

    Caught this excellent article written by Dan Lonkevich of DealFlow Media. Seems like Marathon is starting to get going with their IP defense.

    Patent Investor Marathon Accuses Sony, Dell, Others of Infringement

    By Dan Lonkevich
    March 21, 2013 5:45 PM ET

    Patent investor Marathon Patent Group (OTCQB:MARA) filed its first infringement lawsuit, accusing a group of companies including Sony Computer Entertainment, Dell and Blue Cross and Blue Shield Association of infringing patents related to online systems for workflow management and collaboration.

    Marathon's legal strategy is supported by investors who have made a name for themselves in the small-cap financing market. They include Hudson Bay Capital Management and GRQ Consultants. Numerous small cap investors are currently focusing on the business of patent monetization.

    Other defendants named in Marathon's suit are Winn-Dixie Stores, Siemens' energy division, Juniper Networks, and CB Apex Realtors.

    The suit was filed March 20 in U.S. District Court in Marshall, Texas.

    All of the defendants use an online communications system offered by Hyperoffice to facilitate workflow and collaboration on group tasks, projects and documents, according to the suit.

    Marathon, based in Alexandria, Va., said the infringed patents are held by its SAMPO IP LLC unit, which it purchased in November from LVL Patent Group. LVL was owned by Doug Croxall, who took over as chairman and chief executive officer of Marathon following the purchase of LVL's patent portfolio.

    "The patents recite systems and methods for centralized communication by storing information and pushing notifications to group participants, providing links to portions of the stored information while restricting access to other portions of the stored information, and pushing notifications to user peripheral," Marathon said in a recent securities filing.

    "The defendants have directly infringed, and continue to directly infringe, the claims of the asserted patents by using the accused communications systems and methods covered by the claims of the asserted patents," Marathon said in its lawsuit. "The defendants' infringing acts have caused, and will continue to cause, damage to plaintiff in an amount to be proven in trial."

    Marathon is being represented by the law firms of Spangler & Fussell of Longview, Texas, and Stadheim & Grear of Chicago. Attorneys with the two firms couldn't be reached for comment.

    Marathon spokesman Jason Assad declined to comment on how much the company is seeking in damages.

    A spokesman for Blue Cross declined to comment on the lawsuit. Representatives of the other the defendants couldn't immediately be reached for comment.

    Recent patent infringement cases have generated substantial awards for patent investors. VirnetX Holdings Corp. (VHC) won a $200 million settlement from Microsoft in 2010 and a $368 million verdict against Apple last year. VirnetX also recently lost in a patent infringement case against Cisco Systems.

    Vringo Inc. (VRNG) won a $31 million award in a patent infringement suit last November against a group of companies that included Google, AOL, and Target Corp.

    Article Tag(s): Legal News, Intellectual Property

    Mar 21 11:16 PM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.