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  • American Capital Agency's Q2 2015 Book Value Projection [View article]
    what i find amazing is how every other quarter AGNC adds a new accounting term to explain, obfuscate, or cloud the numbers in their earnings reports. I swear they make some of this stuff up lol. I wonder how much owning shares in other terrible mREITS figured into book value losses. I bet there is NOTHING ANYWHERE in their ridiculous earnings report about it.
    Jul 27, 2015. 08:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rough quarter for American Capital Agency [View news story]
    it seems like every other quarter AGNC introduces a new term in their earnings report designed to confuse, obfuscate, and deflect from the truth. wonder how much the shares they own in other MREITS affected their book value? i bet that little tidbit is missing from the report.
    Jul 27, 2015. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras: I'm Not Letting One Bad Report Scare Me Away [View article]
    not for CMO
    Jul 24, 2015. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras: I'm Not Letting One Bad Report Scare Me Away [View article]
    Of course you may be right, and the bottom may be in. But at this point HTS is at the mercy of the markets. I dont think they have any rabbits they can pull out of the hat if the climate worsens. They way under perform their risk profile. the other problem is, this is not one bad report. These types of earnings reports with HTS are becoming repetitive. Remember just a year ago this time they had to fire their risk manager? HTS is a mess.
    Jul 23, 2015. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Q2 2015 Book Value Projection [View article]
    fyi you do have a position in HTS if you own AGNC, that is part of the ridiculous travesty of how AGNC is managing shareholder capital. I am stunned there isnt a revolt against this type of stuff.
    Jul 23, 2015. 09:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Q2 2015 Book Value Projection [View article]
    as always you have lots of good data and its hard to disagree with your mathematical conclusions... However i can have significant disagree with your "rhetorical" conclusions, LOL> How in the world is a 5.5% decrease in book value modest? To me a drop that big in one quarter is outrageous. It would be less if they werent buying common shares of other poorly managed mREITS, like HTS. It shows AGNC continues to underperform their risk profile and continues to be a significant value trap.
    Jul 23, 2015. 09:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dispelling The 'Value' Myths About Discount To Book Value [View article]
    i believe that is incorrect. the duration risk is much longer than that. but the main risk to book value is actually asset prices. its almost impossible to hedge away that risk significantly. that is the reason for the high betas they trade at
    Jul 23, 2015. 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras Financial Corp. Presents A Riskier Picture Than Reality [View article]
    hey Daniel, i laid it out in this article from a few weeks ago, i have a few others on the mREIT sector. Our pick in the sector for common equity is CMO, but most of our exposure is in CMO preferred and NYMT preferred, bot the O series and the P series.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 22, 2015. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras Financial Corp. Presents A Riskier Picture Than Reality [View article]
    i agree 100%. we have been saying that for several years, that long ARMS are a ridiculous risk profile for mREITS. if you are going to do ARMS they have to be short as possible and your port should have an average duration risk of 45-90 days or less after hedges.
    Jul 22, 2015. 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras Financial Corp. Presents A Riskier Picture Than Reality [View article]
    in fact the only mREITS performing worse than HTS on a risk adjusted basis are AGNC, NLY, and ARR
    Jul 22, 2015. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras Financial Corp. Presents A Riskier Picture Than Reality [View article]
    willy they are a mess and have been for a couple years now at least. Based on our Total Yield Beta model, they are underperforming their risk value by at least 38%, only a few others are worse
    Jul 22, 2015. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras Financial Corp. Announces Second Quarter 2015 Financial Results [View article]
    its pretty clear that HTS doesnt quite have a handle on duration risk management yet.
    Jul 21, 2015. 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras Financial Corp. Presents A Riskier Picture Than Reality [View article]
    They just took a massive hit to book value this quarter too. They are flailing about looking for something to stick. This may be one of their worst quarters in recent memory
    Jul 21, 2015. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras Financial Corp. Presents A Riskier Picture Than Reality [View article]
    yes there is some value in that, but their duration risk at the onset is too high for an mREIT that is supposed to hold ARMS. its too long in our opinion. They just came out with earnings and missed. I think this company has underperformed its risk profile for a long time and continues to be a value trap
    Jul 21, 2015. 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras Financial Corp. Presents A Riskier Picture Than Reality [View article]
    our contention has been for quite a while that the ARM exposure that HTS takes on is way too long, especially since a 30 year mortgage has a lifespan of 5-7 years, it makes no sense to take on 5-7 year arms... you get the same duration risk but for lower yield. Its a silly risk profile. The discount to book is NOT a sign of value, its a sign its a value trap.
    Jul 21, 2015. 03:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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