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  • Capstead Mortgage: Interest Income Is The Name Of The Game [View article]
    you dont want CMO to be a growth company in any way. For them to grow revenues they would have to change their business model. If they did that they would ahve to take on more duration risk, like HTS tried to do. You want CMO to stay where they are. The reason they are a small company is because of the niche they have carved out with short duration ARMs. That market is not nearly as big as the fixed rate complex. But small is good, their costs are very nominal and their financial reports are very simple, straight forward, easy to understand. Just my 2 cents on your questions.
    Jul 30, 2015. 03:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstead Mortgage: Interest Income Is The Name Of The Game [View article]
    i agree with you but with a few exceptions:
    1. a $13.20 price target is way too generous, I would think a buck lower would be realistic.
    2. Most of their prepayments were on new acquisitions, and not their seasoned portfolio, had they just slowed down the purchase of new assets and bought shares they would have been fine

    Other than that, it is important to note that so far CMO is the only mREIT to have an economic gain when factoring in book value declines. All others have lost money. Good article.
    Jul 30, 2015. 02:02 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Q2 2015 Book Value Projection [View article]
    what i find amazing is how every other quarter AGNC adds a new accounting term to explain, obfuscate, or cloud the numbers in their earnings reports. I swear they make some of this stuff up lol. I wonder how much owning shares in other terrible mREITS figured into book value losses. I bet there is NOTHING ANYWHERE in their ridiculous earnings report about it.
    Jul 27, 2015. 08:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rough quarter for American Capital Agency [View news story]
    it seems like every other quarter AGNC introduces a new term in their earnings report designed to confuse, obfuscate, and deflect from the truth. wonder how much the shares they own in other MREITS affected their book value? i bet that little tidbit is missing from the report.
    Jul 27, 2015. 04:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras: I'm Not Letting One Bad Report Scare Me Away [View article]
    not for CMO
    Jul 24, 2015. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras: I'm Not Letting One Bad Report Scare Me Away [View article]
    Of course you may be right, and the bottom may be in. But at this point HTS is at the mercy of the markets. I dont think they have any rabbits they can pull out of the hat if the climate worsens. They way under perform their risk profile. the other problem is, this is not one bad report. These types of earnings reports with HTS are becoming repetitive. Remember just a year ago this time they had to fire their risk manager? HTS is a mess.
    Jul 23, 2015. 02:31 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Q2 2015 Book Value Projection [View article]
    fyi you do have a position in HTS if you own AGNC, that is part of the ridiculous travesty of how AGNC is managing shareholder capital. I am stunned there isnt a revolt against this type of stuff.
    Jul 23, 2015. 09:16 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency's Q2 2015 Book Value Projection [View article]
    as always you have lots of good data and its hard to disagree with your mathematical conclusions... However i can have significant disagree with your "rhetorical" conclusions, LOL> How in the world is a 5.5% decrease in book value modest? To me a drop that big in one quarter is outrageous. It would be less if they werent buying common shares of other poorly managed mREITS, like HTS. It shows AGNC continues to underperform their risk profile and continues to be a significant value trap.
    Jul 23, 2015. 09:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dispelling The 'Value' Myths About Discount To Book Value [View article]
    i believe that is incorrect. the duration risk is much longer than that. but the main risk to book value is actually asset prices. its almost impossible to hedge away that risk significantly. that is the reason for the high betas they trade at
    Jul 23, 2015. 08:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras Financial Corp. Presents A Riskier Picture Than Reality [View article]
    hey Daniel, i laid it out in this article from a few weeks ago, i have a few others on the mREIT sector. Our pick in the sector for common equity is CMO, but most of our exposure is in CMO preferred and NYMT preferred, bot the O series and the P series.

    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 22, 2015. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras Financial Corp. Presents A Riskier Picture Than Reality [View article]
    i agree 100%. we have been saying that for several years, that long ARMS are a ridiculous risk profile for mREITS. if you are going to do ARMS they have to be short as possible and your port should have an average duration risk of 45-90 days or less after hedges.
    Jul 22, 2015. 01:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras Financial Corp. Presents A Riskier Picture Than Reality [View article]
    in fact the only mREITS performing worse than HTS on a risk adjusted basis are AGNC, NLY, and ARR
    Jul 22, 2015. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras Financial Corp. Presents A Riskier Picture Than Reality [View article]
    willy they are a mess and have been for a couple years now at least. Based on our Total Yield Beta model, they are underperforming their risk value by at least 38%, only a few others are worse
    Jul 22, 2015. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras Financial Corp. Announces Second Quarter 2015 Financial Results [View article]
    its pretty clear that HTS doesnt quite have a handle on duration risk management yet.
    Jul 21, 2015. 04:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hatteras Financial Corp. Presents A Riskier Picture Than Reality [View article]
    They just took a massive hit to book value this quarter too. They are flailing about looking for something to stick. This may be one of their worst quarters in recent memory
    Jul 21, 2015. 04:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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