Seeking Alpha

MobilePreacher  

View MobilePreacher's Comments BY TICKER:
  • Capstead Mortgage's BV, Dividend, Risk And Valuation To Its Variable-Rate Agency mREIT Peers - Part 1 [View article]
    i actually wrote an article about CMO's management.

    http://seekingalpha.co...

    I have had lots of interaction with them. They are what you suspect, a very above board shareholder friendly grou.
    Jun 12, 2015. 01:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstead Mortgage's BV, Dividend, Risk And Valuation To Its Variable-Rate Agency mREIT Peers - Part 1 [View article]
    Hey Scott, I think we agree on most of this, with one difference:
    We believe that "not all discounts to book value are created equal". Meaning that the "beta" if you will, of CMO's book value is much lower than the rest of the sector, therefore CMO in relative terms becomes a buy with a much lower discount to book than say HTS or AGNC. Clearly the biggest risk to book value for CMO is not price fluxuation since the things in its book move at a significantly lower beta than the rest of the sector. The biggest threat to book for CMO is prepayments. Therefore, knowing this, CMO's buy rating based on book value should be risk adjusted knowing that its inherent book value is much more stable. Thoughts?
    Jun 11, 2015. 07:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstead Mortgage's BV, Dividend, Risk And Valuation To Its Variable-Rate Agency mREIT Peers - Part 1 [View article]
    COBeeMan, now if i revealed to you my objective metric in this comment, i wouldnt be able to write my next article due out after Q2 earnings... now would I? :-)
    Jun 9, 2015. 10:58 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstead Mortgage's BV, Dividend, Risk And Valuation To Its Variable-Rate Agency mREIT Peers - Part 1 [View article]
    I think when investing in CMO, you have to apply different metrics than other mREITS, even other variable rate mREITS.
    1. HTS is a variable rate, but because of their poor risk management, they carry fixed rate risk. its a terribly run mREIT with a "variable rate" description but a fixed rate risk profile
    2. CMO should be a buy right now. The main reason is that its current book value is very stable, as is will be the income needed to pay the dividned, and our analysis says both will continue to be. In addition to the fact that after hedging, the duration risk is 30-60 days.
    I do respect your work Scott Kennedy, and i agree with most of what you wrote, but i thought i would add my two cents into the analysis.
    Jun 9, 2015. 09:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10.5% Dividend Capstead Mortgage's Portfolio Is Designed For Changing Interest Rates [View article]
    Mourad, that was part of the problem last year when HTS had to fire their risk manager. They reached for yield by buying these long duration ARM's and got killed on the spread. HTS has a big problem in that they are trying to be a long duration CMO, but they still have AGNC duration risk. In our opinion you have to stay far away from HTS.
    May 13, 2015. 07:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 10.5% Dividend Capstead Mortgage's Portfolio Is Designed For Changing Interest Rates [View article]
    HTS has ARM holdings but its silly because they are 5 to 7 year ARMs. what makes this even more silly is the average life of a 30 year mortgage is 5-7 years. So HTS gets less yield for basically the same duration risk. HTS is not a well run mREIT in my opinion
    May 12, 2015. 05:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 10.5% Dividend Capstead Mortgage's Portfolio Is Designed For Changing Interest Rates [View article]
    you did an excellent job on explaining why (CMO) is superior for risk management to (AGNC) and every other mREIT in the sector. nice article David. In addition right now CMO common and CMO PRE are outstanding buys. take advantage of market inefficiency is the key to investing in mREITS.
    May 5, 2015. 07:05 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Capstead, Management Matters [View article]
    COB, we gotta stop agreeing like this lol
    May 4, 2015. 06:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Capstead, Management Matters [View article]
    lol COBeeMan... i knew i could count on you!
    1. I think the fed will raise rates late this year provided we don't have a recession. I believe there will be a "tantrum" at first, but the market has been preparing for this for 2 years now, so i believe the impact will be short and sanity will return. That sanity is based on the fact that we MUST get away from a zero rate fed.
    2. As for its impact on (CMO)... there will certainly be market risk on the common shares and maybe even the preferred, (which should produce a great entry opportunity) but in reality a slow rise in rates will be beneficial for CMO's business model, since their duration risk after hedging is so short, roughly 30-90 days on the borrow side.
    3. As for the rest of them, a rate rise will be very harmful if they are not hunkered down beforehand, as (AGNC) is trying to do now. Of course the consequence of "hunkering down" is a loss of NIM income as they de-lever their portfolio. If (and this is a big IF) fixed rate long duration mREITS like AGNC and NLY have taken the pain ahead of time and de-levered enough to be fortunate enough to buy new higher fixed rate MBS, there could be a new baseline for them, but either way, a long duration fixed rate portfolio will experience pain, either before, or after rates begin to rise.
    May 2, 2015. 08:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At Capstead, Management Matters [View article]
    I think management at NLY is more reliable than at AGNC for sure. However the business model at NLY is basically the same at AGNC, which is to borrow short term to buy long term duration. To me NLY is a well run company but the strategy would be inferior that of CMO. This is of course my opinion and many will differ with it.
    May 1, 2015. 05:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstead Mortgage: Reality Versus Expectations [View article]
    We are in agreement. contrary to popular opinion, CMO is the class of the sector
    Apr 30, 2015. 01:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstead Mortgage: Why Isn't Anyone Talking About This? [View article]
    well said purple :-)
    Apr 22, 2015. 08:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstead Mortgage: Why Isn't Anyone Talking About This? [View article]
    their duration risk is about 60-90 days after hedging, in reality moderately rising rate environment is good for CMO.
    Mar 16, 2015. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstead Mortgage: Why Isn't Anyone Talking About This? [View article]
    thanks for the concern and the well wishes, but we are pretty well familiar with the company, its book, its management, and its strategy going forward. Are there pressures in the mREIT sector in the current possible rising rate environment? OF course. But of all the mREITS, CMO is built for this moreso than anyone else. You can read some of my past articles on CMO if you want, but its a company we are intimately familiar with.
    Mar 16, 2015. 07:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Capstead Mortgage: Why Isn't Anyone Talking About This? [View article]
    i have read your post about 8 times and just shook my head in disbelief each time lol
    Mar 14, 2015. 07:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
More on CMO by MobilePreacher
COMMENTS STATS
534 Comments
374 Likes