Rising Sun Redux - International ETFs Lag The U.S., Except For Japan [View article]
An underperforming single country ETF that I would be looking at is Brazil (EWZ) -- they have the Soccer World Cup coming there in 2014 AND the Summer Olympics coming in 2016 ... there are/will be huge amounts of infrastructure spending and gotta think other things going on that may juice the economy there. EWZ has been in a consolidating sideways range since basically May 2012 -- a breakout above the top range of that in the 57/58/59 area is what I would be looking for as a potential entry trigger.
Rising Sun Redux - International ETFs Lag The U.S., Except For Japan [View article]
On a 6 month basis I would use my preferred charts and technical system indicators ... I would be looking for a pullback in either of these to get in at a low risk entry point, because EWJ and DXJ have basically been in accelerating uptrends since November 2012 (which is also when the US market rally began as well), without much of a pause. DXJ has been outperforming EWJ since this November bottom, so I would prefer that one. As far as pullback levels that would provide a good entry point, I would look at the 45/44 and 40 levels currently on DXJ.
Stanley: Our best trades come from momentum/trend breakouts, then we normally utilize low-risk pullback entry points within a confirmed bigger trend (in either direction using options). "The trend is your friend" as they say ... we prefer that to "catch a falling knife".
Bullish Investor Sentiment Drying Up = Contrarian 'Buy' Signal For Markets [View article]
Hi, I just want to note real quickly that I actually wrote this article on Thursday July 26 in the morning ... before the market had 2 huge up days on Thursday and Friday.
Also, I receive quite a few outside articles as Director of Editorial for BigTrends.com, and there has been a preponderance of bearish ones lately from a variety of angles and writers (sentiment, Fed, economy, technical, gold, Europe, etc).
Meanwhile, the overall price action in stocks has been generally strong and our technical analysis on the broad market is largely positive -- I view this scenario bullishly from a contrarian sentiment perspective. The chart tells the tale, to paraphrase Jessie Livermore.
But we certainly don't rely 100% on contrarian sentiment indicators in our trading ... this AAII data is just kind of an obvious one that has set up recently, in my view.
(I work with Price): side note - Although SA prefers fundamental talk over technical analysis/charting, I would also point out that SPX 1360 & 1361 are key Fibonacci retracement levels I've been watching on both a Daily chart of the December 2011 lows to April 2012 and also on a long-term Weekly chart of the 2007 highs to 2009 panic market low. Definitely an important level to keep an eye on if the SPX approaches it again this year.
Should You 'Like' Or 'De-Friend' The Facebook IPO? [View article]
Opening screw job print they did at $45, then it quickly drifted down to $38 to $42 range for rest of day -- not a great sign for the short-term, I would say.
The greed of the underwriters to jack up the IPO price to $38 now looks like a mistake.
Declining Dollar: This Trend Is Not Your Friend [View article]
great link, thanks for that granger ... the concepts presented in that article are certainly very speculative long-term ones, but just the kind of thing we need/should to be thinking about, especially from the U.S. and/or trading/investing perspective
A Closer Look at Selling Option Premiums Ahead of Expiration [View article]
Folks, I tend to agree with you that risking 0.92 to make 0.08 isn't enough profit sometimes. It was just a theoretical example for this article. That's why I said in the piece:
"That return is a bit lower than I usually prefer for my front-month credit spreads (i prefer 15% to 60% max potential gains), but since 125 is such a key technical/psychological level, let’s just use this as a theoretical example."
On the other hand if you could make 8.7% return on risk every 1.5 weeks, you would be well ahead of the markets every year.
A Developing Special Situation in SIRI [View article]
2 things:
You are all focusing on my speculation that SIRI shares could go to 0 in the future. The primary focus of this piece is that I anticipate an increase in volatility and a big move in the stock before the end of the year. The narrow trading range it's been in should be broken. Hence the straddle suggestion, where you can profit if it moves in EITHER direction.
As to the bankruptcy, etc -- I'm not saying that this definitely will happen, but we've all certainly seen stocks go to 0 before. As you know, this doesn't mean the company is going out of business -- but at times stocks do go worthless when a company reorganizes. And companies with heavy debt, not very good profit margins, a lot of outstanding shares, and a stock price near 1.00 could certainly be considered a candidate for this.
A Developing Special Situation in SIRI [View article]
Waren, I'm basically saying there is a high likelihood of a big move in the stock before the end of year in EITHER direction -- so playing an option straddle (buying both the call and the put) is a way to bet on a big move in the stock price with a fairly small cash outlay. The two straddles I mentioned are priced around 0.10 ($10) and 0.20 ($20) and each option controls 100 shares of stock -- on a very simplified basis if the stock moves more than that you can potentially profit. For example if the stock moves quickly to 1.50, the 1.00 Call would be worth at least 0.50 ($50) and the 1.00 Put may be worth a couple cents still.
Rising Sun Redux - International ETFs Lag The U.S., Except For Japan [View article]
Rising Sun Redux - International ETFs Lag The U.S., Except For Japan [View article]
Low Volatility ETFs Live Up To Their Hype [View article]
Broad Stock Market Outlook Remains Strong, Despite Negative Sentiment [View article]
Bullish Investor Sentiment Drying Up = Contrarian 'Buy' Signal For Markets [View article]
http://bit.ly/N1vGOm
Bullish Investor Sentiment Drying Up = Contrarian 'Buy' Signal For Markets [View article]
Also, I receive quite a few outside articles as Director of Editorial for BigTrends.com, and there has been a preponderance of bearish ones lately from a variety of angles and writers (sentiment, Fed, economy, technical, gold, Europe, etc).
Meanwhile, the overall price action in stocks has been generally strong and our technical analysis on the broad market is largely positive -- I view this scenario bullishly from a contrarian sentiment perspective. The chart tells the tale, to paraphrase Jessie Livermore.
But we certainly don't rely 100% on contrarian sentiment indicators in our trading ... this AAII data is just kind of an obvious one that has set up recently, in my view.
Weekly Market Outlook - Bullish Friday Amid Weak Economic Numbers [View article]
Should You 'Like' Or 'De-Friend' The Facebook IPO? [View article]
The greed of the underwriters to jack up the IPO price to $38 now looks like a mistake.
Should You 'Like' Or 'De-Friend' The Facebook IPO? [View article]
Declining Dollar: This Trend Is Not Your Friend [View article]
A Closer Look at Selling Option Premiums Ahead of Expiration [View article]
"That return is a bit lower than I usually prefer for my front-month credit spreads (i prefer 15% to 60% max potential gains), but since 125 is such a key technical/psychological level, let’s just use this as a theoretical example."
On the other hand if you could make 8.7% return on risk every 1.5 weeks, you would be well ahead of the markets every year.
A Developing Special Situation in SIRI [View article]
You are all focusing on my speculation that SIRI shares could go to 0 in the future. The primary focus of this piece is that I anticipate an increase in volatility and a big move in the stock before the end of the year. The narrow trading range it's been in should be broken. Hence the straddle suggestion, where you can profit if it moves in EITHER direction.
As to the bankruptcy, etc -- I'm not saying that this definitely will happen, but we've all certainly seen stocks go to 0 before. As you know, this doesn't mean the company is going out of business -- but at times stocks do go worthless when a company reorganizes. And companies with heavy debt, not very good profit margins, a lot of outstanding shares, and a stock price near 1.00 could certainly be considered a candidate for this.
A Developing Special Situation in SIRI [View article]
Russell 2000 Up 9 Days in a Row - Does This Bode Well? [View article]
A Forgotten Tech Name Is Breaking Out [View article]