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Moby Waller  

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  • 2014 Kentucky Derby Picks & Analysis From  [View instapost]
    that longshot in 2nd messed up all our exactas and trifectas

    posting Preakness picks article now -- interestingly, Price & myself picked the same Top 4 horses
    May 16, 2014. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter IPO: Comparisons & Analysis From A Trading Perspective [View article]
    Edit -- looks like TWTR will open around $45 ... watch round numbers like $40, $35, $30 on the downside if it pulls back in the coming days/weeks
    Nov 7, 2013. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Twitter IPO: Comparisons & Analysis From A Trading Perspective [View article]
    I personally would wait a bit, based on what occurred with LNKD & FB. But the decision is up to you, ultimately.

    2 sidenotes: In my personal acct, I bought FB around 20 when it plunged, sold it around 30. Also, the version of this article on the BigTrends site has been edited/cleaned up a bit and some more detail added.
    Nov 7, 2013. 08:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Outlook - Watch The VIX For Clues [View article]
    Hi I work with Price and just wanted to reply with my 2 cents on the VIX and the market -- this analysis is mine, Price may not necessarily agree.

    I wouldn't say the VIX is a perfect single predictor of future SPX prices, but it certainly shows the level of concern among options traders. And key levels on the VIX have been good pivot points for market trends over time.

    In my view the VIX has become more of a 'smart money' indicator in recent years than it used to be. In the 1990s when we began studying the VIX, it was often a good contrarian indicator -- especially mini-VIX spikes during bull market trends (they were great long-side buy opportunities).

    If you look back at the VIX long-term big picture, it has tended to remain in certain key ranges ... lower ranges during the stronger bull markets, higher range during times of more volatility. For example from 1991 to 97 it largely was 10 to 20 almost the entire time. Them during the internet bubble era from '98 to 2002 it was in an elevated state of basically 20 to 40. Then 2003 to 2007 another quieter bull run and the VIX was again largely 10 to 20. 2007 to 2011 saw the unprecedented spikes to over 80 (!), but mostly was in the 16 to 40ish range. Since mid-2012 the VIX has gone back to the 12ish to 20 range. Within this range are key levels around round numbers such as 12/12.5, 14, 16, 18, 20.

    I consider the current VIX to be overall in a "safe zone" when below 20/18/16 (as the underlying market trend has been bullish over the past 2 years) -- with the bottom range of 12/12.5 to 14 being important. 12/12.5 has tended to mark VIX bottoms and short-term market tops in recent years -- but longer term we may be headed to a 10 VIX.

    A 10 VIX doesn't seem 'logical' given the economic slowdown and uncertainty in the world, but if you think about things like Arab Spring and how well the market has shaken off events of recent years, it certainly is within reach.

    One other rule of thumb about the VIX that I like is to consider is as the 12 month projection of potential gain/loss in the SPX ... so a VIX of 10 to 20 makes sense inherently in general to me, as the US market could go up or down 10% to 20% within reason most times, net over the next 12 months. A VIX of 40 is more like that of an emerging market with higher volatility/risk, not usually the case of a developed mature economy/market like the US.
    Sep 9, 2013. 11:23 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Undervalued (Social) Media Company To Watch [View article]
    Well I would really compare it more to the UFC, the NBA or British Premier League soccer in terms of being a global brand. I mention FB and LNKD because the social media reach of WWE is truly massive, they are top trending on Twitter constantly for example. DIS I mention as probably the pre-eminent content company in the world in my view.
    Aug 20, 2013. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The VIX 'Wall Of Worry' Preceding Another Big Market Rally, Even A Parabolic One? [View article]
    I didn't anticipate such a violent reaction to Fed/Bernanke, as this tapering news wasn't exactly unexpected in our view. Stocks may well shake this off by the end of this week (or next week). Market performance after a big down 'Fed day' looks mixed in our analysis. But I'm not a 'perma-bull' and the forecast in this article was a possibility I saw/see, but is certainly subject to change. I probably should have mentioned in this piece that the "logical" anticipation of performance going forward this Summer was a choppy consolidating market, given that we racked up such strong gains earlier in the year (my SPX target for 2013 in Jan was 1650 +/- 50 SPX points, which was already reached) and the recent choppy volatile pattern we've seen since mid-May. I've previously done recent Fibonacci and trendline support analysis on support levels if the market pulls back more than anticipated -- the 1600 SPX area is obviously a key area to watch.
    Jun 20, 2013. 09:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rising Sun Redux - International ETFs Lag The U.S., Except For Japan [View article]
    An underperforming single country ETF that I would be looking at is Brazil (EWZ) -- they have the Soccer World Cup coming there in 2014 AND the Summer Olympics coming in 2016 ... there are/will be huge amounts of infrastructure spending and gotta think other things going on that may juice the economy there. EWZ has been in a consolidating sideways range since basically May 2012 -- a breakout above the top range of that in the 57/58/59 area is what I would be looking for as a potential entry trigger.
    May 17, 2013. 09:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rising Sun Redux - International ETFs Lag The U.S., Except For Japan [View article]
    On a 6 month basis I would use my preferred charts and technical system indicators ... I would be looking for a pullback in either of these to get in at a low risk entry point, because EWJ and DXJ have basically been in accelerating uptrends since November 2012 (which is also when the US market rally began as well), without much of a pause. DXJ has been outperforming EWJ since this November bottom, so I would prefer that one. As far as pullback levels that would provide a good entry point, I would look at the 45/44 and 40 levels currently on DXJ.
    May 17, 2013. 08:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Low Volatility ETFs Live Up To Their Hype [View article]
    Nice piece ... interesting
    Mar 27, 2013. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Broad Stock Market Outlook Remains Strong, Despite Negative Sentiment [View article]
    Stanley: Our best trades come from momentum/trend breakouts, then we normally utilize low-risk pullback entry points within a confirmed bigger trend (in either direction using options). "The trend is your friend" as they say ... we prefer that to "catch a falling knife".
    Aug 4, 2012. 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Investor Sentiment Drying Up = Contrarian 'Buy' Signal For Markets [View article]
    Add Pimco's Bill Gross to the latest of the "Cult of Equities is Dead" new perma-bears ... meanwhile, SPX is up 10% ytd and 5% since June ...
    Aug 1, 2012. 08:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bullish Investor Sentiment Drying Up = Contrarian 'Buy' Signal For Markets [View article]
    Hi, I just want to note real quickly that I actually wrote this article on Thursday July 26 in the morning ... before the market had 2 huge up days on Thursday and Friday.

    Also, I receive quite a few outside articles as Director of Editorial for, and there has been a preponderance of bearish ones lately from a variety of angles and writers (sentiment, Fed, economy, technical, gold, Europe, etc).

    Meanwhile, the overall price action in stocks has been generally strong and our technical analysis on the broad market is largely positive -- I view this scenario bullishly from a contrarian sentiment perspective. The chart tells the tale, to paraphrase Jessie Livermore.

    But we certainly don't rely 100% on contrarian sentiment indicators in our trading ... this AAII data is just kind of an obvious one that has set up recently, in my view.
    Jul 31, 2012. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Weekly Market Outlook - Bullish Friday Amid Weak Economic Numbers [View article]
    (I work with Price): side note - Although SA prefers fundamental talk over technical analysis/charting, I would also point out that SPX 1360 & 1361 are key Fibonacci retracement levels I've been watching on both a Daily chart of the December 2011 lows to April 2012 and also on a long-term Weekly chart of the 2007 highs to 2009 panic market low. Definitely an important level to keep an eye on if the SPX approaches it again this year.
    Jun 18, 2012. 09:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You 'Like' Or 'De-Friend' The Facebook IPO? [View article]
    Opening screw job print they did at $45, then it quickly drifted down to $38 to $42 range for rest of day -- not a great sign for the short-term, I would say.

    The greed of the underwriters to jack up the IPO price to $38 now looks like a mistake.
    May 18, 2012. 05:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Should You 'Like' Or 'De-Friend' The Facebook IPO? [View article]
    I know many people say "unfriend" but i've been on FB forever and i say "defriend", so i used that - but nice job on getting the IPO shares!
    May 18, 2012. 09:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment