Moby Waller

Airline ETFs Among This Week's Laggards

its from an ETF performance sorting tracker on MSN Money ... it does capture some illiquid ETF names, which we note ... but its one of the better, easier to use performance trackers that I've found

Crude Oil to $150, Then Major Correction?

hmmm... how was this call ... Crude topped at $147, now $40

Chesapeake Energy Unable to Rally Even After Positive News

On Jan 06 10:41 AM rbagby wrote:

> It's amazing how badly this guy Moby missed the mark on CHK
>
>

It's amazing how well rbagby's comment was a contrarian indicator on CHK -- topped out near 20 that day, currently below 14.

I actually was looking at a Straddle on CHK for my subscribers, but ended up going for the Bearish direction, for various reasons. I certainly saw big potential for a volatile move in either direction, but chose the down side. It rallied from 15 to almost 20, now currently below 14. If you had been long the straddle, you could have sold out the Call side on the move up and ended up most likely with a "free" Put that is now worth serious premium.

Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Emerge Stronger Than Ever

After writing this report, I just found this article from a few days ago:

Goldman bought 93,000 apartments in Germany for $1.2 Billion in CASH. Valued at $3.4 Billion including debt. Largest property transaction in Germany since credit crisis began.

Is there any doubt who the "smart money" firm is?

Buy Opportunities Like These Do Not Come Along Very Often

Airlines -- not a good investment in generally every environment...includin... now

The Cheesecake Factory: Have Your Cake and Eat It Too

First ... selling naked put options requires very high margin requirements, so this trade will tie up a lot of your available trading capital in most people's accounts for a long time (7 months) and option approval level.

Second... if CAKE drops to say 10 for example, for whatever reason, you will lose $7k on the stock and $5k on the puts, roughly a 100% loss -- so its not quite as risk-free as you indicate.

But I did find the article and strategy interesting. I've developed a new credit and debit spread strategy service with limited risks on all trades. Check my website for further info.

The 20 Highest Yielding Dividend Aristocrats

Yeah I see several of those financials breaking their 25 yr streaks of raising dividends

Does Buy-and-Hold Work on Major Blue Chips?

I was going with 2000 for all charts, but changed GE and C to show their significant lows just before 2000.

Also, what got me thinking of this story was that the "Consensus Top Buy Blue Chips" of the early-mid 1990s were stocks like MSFT, WMT, GE, and C. Also names like KO, PG, CSCO, ORCL, etc. It was widely said and thought you could just buy these and put em away and make money -- obviously there have been better places to be in the 2000s than these big names. I was thinking of what are the names today that most everyone loves and think have almost neverending upside: GOOG, AAPL, MCD, XOM, CHL, & Materials/Commodity type Sectors.

Does Buy-and-Hold Work on Major Blue Chips?

Agreed on some your points. Sorry I left dividends out of the article, I had meant to mention them. However, my data shows MSFT and WMT with about a 1.6% yield currently -- GE and C yields are higher, but that is due to their share prices being around multi-year lows.

If You Think Oil Has Peaked, Buy Airline Stocks or FedEx

Airlines didn't make good profits when Oil was $40, think I'll pass on 'em.

Is Amazon's Free Cash Flow Overstated?

Nice article. I'm not an accountant, but I like someone who does their own thinking and analysis and comes to a logical conclusion. Wall St Analysts are frequently wrong -- remember the guy who was raising his price targets every day, up to about $1000, on Commerce One back in 2000ish.

Is Oil a Bubble? Part One

Great chart showing Nasdaq vs. Homebuilders vs Oil. I tend to think we will hit $150 soon, then major correction to $100 or $75. I wrote an article here on seekingalpha yesterday about that.

The Oil Shortage, and Other Fairy Tales

I foresee a likely move to $150 on Crude Oil, then a major pullback (possibly around August or as the Election nears) to the $100 level, and maybe as low as $75, mostly due to speculation coming out of the market. Other factors such as Beijing Olympics and coming Presidential Election may contribute to correction. Article on seekingalpha here: seekingalpha.com/artic...

Crude Oil to $150, Then Major Correction?

Another factor I neglected to mention in this piece was that if it appears likely that a Democrat will win the White House, oil prices are likely to drop, in my view. This is due to a likely lessening of troops in Iraq and general lowering of tensions in that region. But I do see $150 approaching very soon, and anyone who doesn't think there is massive speculation in that market at this point, is sadly mistaken.

Oil Looks Toppy: Ultrashort Oil and Gas Looks Good

I forecast a coming top of $150 in crude oil prices, before a major pullback to $100, and possibly as low as $75. Another factor for a coming possible correction in Oil prices is if the Democrats look likely to win in November -- due to their likelihood of scaling back in Iraq and generally dampening tensions in the region. Article on seeking alpha here: seekingalpha.com/artic...