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Moby Waller

 
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  • Declining Dollar: This Trend Is Not Your Friend [View article]
    great link, thanks for that granger ... the concepts presented in that article are certainly very speculative long-term ones, but just the kind of thing we need/should to be thinking about, especially from the U.S. and/or trading/investing perspective
    May 13 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Closer Look at Selling Option Premiums Ahead of Expiration [View article]
    Folks, I tend to agree with you that risking 0.92 to make 0.08 isn't enough profit sometimes. It was just a theoretical example for this article. That's why I said in the piece:

    "That return is a bit lower than I usually prefer for my front-month credit spreads (i prefer 15% to 60% max potential gains), but since 125 is such a key technical/psychological level, let’s just use this as a theoretical example."

    On the other hand if you could make 8.7% return on risk every 1.5 weeks, you would be well ahead of the markets every year.
    Jan 14 09:22 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Developing Special Situation in SIRI [View article]
    2 things:

    You are all focusing on my speculation that SIRI shares could go to 0 in the future. The primary focus of this piece is that I anticipate an increase in volatility and a big move in the stock before the end of the year. The narrow trading range it's been in should be broken. Hence the straddle suggestion, where you can profit if it moves in EITHER direction.

    As to the bankruptcy, etc -- I'm not saying that this definitely will happen, but we've all certainly seen stocks go to 0 before. As you know, this doesn't mean the company is going out of business -- but at times stocks do go worthless when a company reorganizes. And companies with heavy debt, not very good profit margins, a lot of outstanding shares, and a stock price near 1.00 could certainly be considered a candidate for this.
    Sep 9 03:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Developing Special Situation in SIRI [View article]
    Waren, I'm basically saying there is a high likelihood of a big move in the stock before the end of year in EITHER direction -- so playing an option straddle (buying both the call and the put) is a way to bet on a big move in the stock price with a fairly small cash outlay. The two straddles I mentioned are priced around 0.10 ($10) and 0.20 ($20) and each option controls 100 shares of stock -- on a very simplified basis if the stock moves more than that you can potentially profit. For example if the stock moves quickly to 1.50, the 1.00 Call would be worth at least 0.50 ($50) and the 1.00 Put may be worth a couple cents still.
    Sep 9 02:57 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russell 2000 Up 9 Days in a Row - Does This Bode Well? [View article]
    All the comments above are Bearish -- so that immediately rings my Contrarian Bullish Bell -- ring ring!
    Mar 13 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Forgotten Tech Name Is Breaking Out [View article]
    ive edited the first few paragraphs in the "instablog" section to take out the incorrect info ... can't edit this version here.
    Mar 12 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Forgotten Tech Name Is Breaking Out [View article]
    *Red-Faced* Looking back, I did make an error ... SY came up on one of my price performance screens, and in doing some research I got it confused a bit with STEC, which I was also looking into (and I haven't traded either at this point or given recommendations on either). But the "quiet" breakout its experienced on various charts was the point of the article, really. Price action in the stock is what we focus on, looking for 2 day to 3 month moves, not 2 year projections.
    Mar 12 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Forgotten Tech Name Is Breaking Out [View article]
    Sorry, you are correct ... I had trouble defining it in a pithy way. I certainly don't claim to be an expert in enterprise and mobile software solutions for information management, development, and integration worldwide. I do look at fundamentals and read up a bit (there were 2 articles cited, but one was SA and the link was removed), but I prefer Jesse Livermore, "the tape tells the tale". Which is why there are 3 charts on there, and no projected future revenue/earnings graphs.
    Mar 12 11:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Japan Continues Its 2010 Resurgence [View article]
    I do maintain in this piece and another I wrote earlier this year that Japan is likely to outperform relative to other country ETFs this year in my view.

    If the troubles with Toyota fade away quickly, then it is a bit reminiscent of the long-ago troubles with Audi ... and if we have approached the end of this bad news cycle for the company, it may be a good opportunity to jump in on the long side. But in general I shy away from automobile companies, so I'm saying a basket of Japan stocks may be the safer way to go.
    Feb 9 12:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Possible 115 SPY Pin Tomorrow, Then Rally Next Week [View instapost]
    the number scaling on the right of this chart got a bit messed up, sorry about that, but the 110 and 115 levels are correct
    Jan 14 09:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • VIX: Nearing Crucial Long-Term Support Levels [View article]
    <img class="authors_reply" src="static.seekingalpha.co...">

    Hi TLassen, good question.

    It's a bit tricky and others may have some more clarification, better than mine.

    The VIX itself measures 30 day expected volatility on the S&P 500 (used to be OEX, now on SPX). My understanding is that this is also an annualized projection, but that may in fact just be my "rule of thumb". For example, in all the quiet years of the 90s when the market went up 12% a year like clockwork, the VIX basically was between 10 and 20. Then during the crisis over the past year, we spiked to as high as 90. To me this was saying the market could go up or down 90% in the next 12 months. And look how big the recovery from the March lows was. But even 40 is a very high VIX if you look at it in these terms, that is more like "emerging market" volatility on a historical basis.

    Standard deviations, while part of the option pricing formula (and used for risk management purposes, tails, etc), are not part of the VIX calculation itself as far as I know. However, I certainly would think that saying a VIX at 18 equals 18% +/- projected annual return would fall within 1 standard deviation is prob accurate.

    As an aside, I show the actual vol on the SPX over 30 days as around 11, according to livevolpro data.
    Jan 14 09:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Non-Predictions for 2010: Part 1 [View article]
    Interesting piece. I need to look at it closer.
    Jan 5 06:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Airline ETFs Among This Week's Laggards [View article]
    its from an ETF performance sorting tracker on MSN Money ... it does capture some illiquid ETF names, which we note ... but its one of the better, easier to use performance trackers that I've found
    May 18 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil to $150, Then Major Correction? [View article]
    hmmm... how was this call ... Crude topped at $147, now $40
    Mar 16 08:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chesapeake Energy Unable to Rally Even After Positive News [View article]



    On Jan 06 10:41 AM rbagby wrote:

    > It's amazing how badly this guy Moby missed the mark on CHK
    >
    >

    It's amazing how well rbagby's comment was a contrarian indicator on CHK -- topped out near 20 that day, currently below 14.

    I actually was looking at a Straddle on CHK for my subscribers, but ended up going for the Bearish direction, for various reasons. I certainly saw big potential for a volatile move in either direction, but chose the down side. It rallied from 15 to almost 20, now currently below 14. If you had been long the straddle, you could have sold out the Call side on the move up and ended up most likely with a "free" Put that is now worth serious premium.
    Jan 20 02:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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