Is Amazon's Free Cash Flow Overstated? [View article]
Nice article. I'm not an accountant, but I like someone who does their own thinking and analysis and comes to a logical conclusion. Wall St Analysts are frequently wrong -- remember the guy who was raising his price targets every day, up to about $1000, on Commerce One back in 2000ish.
Great chart showing Nasdaq vs. Homebuilders vs Oil. I tend to think we will hit $150 soon, then major correction to $100 or $75. I wrote an article here on seekingalpha yesterday about that.
The Oil Shortage, and Other Fairy Tales [View article]
I foresee a likely move to $150 on Crude Oil, then a major pullback (possibly around August or as the Election nears) to the $100 level, and maybe as low as $75, mostly due to speculation coming out of the market. Other factors such as Beijing Olympics and coming Presidential Election may contribute to correction. Article on seekingalpha here: seekingalpha.com/artic...
Crude Oil to $150, Then Major Correction? [View article]
Another factor I neglected to mention in this piece was that if it appears likely that a Democrat will win the White House, oil prices are likely to drop, in my view. This is due to a likely lessening of troops in Iraq and general lowering of tensions in that region. But I do see $150 approaching very soon, and anyone who doesn't think there is massive speculation in that market at this point, is sadly mistaken.
Oil Looks Toppy: Ultrashort Oil and Gas Looks Good [View article]
I forecast a coming top of $150 in crude oil prices, before a major pullback to $100, and possibly as low as $75. Another factor for a coming possible correction in Oil prices is if the Democrats look likely to win in November -- due to their likelihood of scaling back in Iraq and generally dampening tensions in the region. Article on seeking alpha here: seekingalpha.com/artic...
Nice article, interesting -- I am also a contrarian from a sentiment standpoint, especially for big picture moves. However, I'm not sure if the London Times headline will be the bellwether you think it will be.
I do remember in the early-1980s when Mall kiosks opened up just for the public to sell their family gold pieces, to be melted into bullion. That marked a top in the gold market. I have heard similar type anecdotes today of traveling gold-buying merchants in rural counties -- I would view a larger saturation of this type of mass buying as a contrarian sign of top in the gold market.
Bandwagon Effects in the Stock Market [View article]
"What this suggests is that, once a bandwagon starts during the day, it tends to persist into the close. Fading one-sided days, particularly of late, has not been a fruitful endeavor for traders. Expecting bandwagons to persist into the next day's trade, however, has also not been profitable."
-- good info and research for day traders of the indexes
Was Peter Lynch Wrong? Crocs and Other Trendy Companies [View article]
Jim Estner: Your points are well-taken, you are obviously sophisticated and intelligent. This piece was meant more as an anecdotal, breezy, educational type article, and to create some conversation. Some of the points made are not as obvious to newer, less-sophisticated investors.
Many many people fall prey to the hot stocks of the day and buy in right at the top, such as CROX at 70 last fall. We saw it happen on a massive scale when the Internet Bubble cracked in 2001. I, for one, did not lose everything that day, unlike many investors/traders. I was taking profits all the way up, and saw it for what it was, and foresaw the inevitable decline. Obviously I was not the only one, but many people got crushed.
As to the point about smart companies knowing when to sell out, the unwritten implication of my comment on Snapple and Vitamin Water was that the companies who bought them were kinda stupid, as in paid way too much in my perception. And while it may be obvious to you that UA could be a takeover target, it may not be to everyone.
Anyhoo, I'm writing a variety of articles, some of which will be very specific, some very technical, some breezy, some anecdotal, some very in-depth on complex options strategies, and some very opinionated (I just submitted a bullish WMT article today with specific targets). Hopefully you will like others better.
Electronic Arts: This Stock Isn't Playing Games [View article]
In my personal opinion, since EA has gotten near-monopolies on NFL game licenses, etc -- the quality of their sports games has gone downhill -- they do tiny incremental improvements each year instead of being innovative and overhauling completely and creating new ways of playing and new genres
"1) The real worry here is that the investment banks don’t have good enough risk controls for each other. "
Pretty much agreed
-- although investment companies of all sorts have all kinds of risk controls on paper -- in reality when a division/department/tr... is making big profits, they can pretty much do what they want to some degree -- which leads to Rogue Trader type situations as well as giving out idiotic Interest-Only mortgages to everyone and his brother
Wal-Mart: Another 20%-40% Upside in Store [View article]
WMT has had a very nice technical breakout from a 3 year trading range as well, I'm preparing a report on that which will probably not be out til Monday, should be available on this site.
No time frame is given for this projected breakout to the upside. The S&P 500 would have to gain 15%ish to retake its old highs, and I would estimate this would take at least 6 months to occur, if at all. The NASDAQ, which he does not mention, would require about a 115% gain to reach its all-time highs! Check out my Mid-Week Update on BigTrends.com for an alternate technical view of the big stock index charts (SPY,QQQQ) and the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX).
Who's to Blame for the Commodities Boom? [View article]
I agree with the Author in that the Frankfurter quote is rather naive. The quote refers to the securitization of commodities and the trading of them as speculative financial instruments rather than for delivery of the physical good -- as if this was a new concept!
As far as I know, profiting from futures contracts without planning to take delivery has been happening as far back as Holland in the 1600s! Or look back the the 1970s when commodity/future trading was previously in vogue.
Blaming speculators and short sellers is always a silly strategy in a world with 2-sided markets and gigantic money flows.
If You Think Oil Has Peaked, Buy Airline Stocks or FedEx [View article]
Is Amazon's Free Cash Flow Overstated? [View article]
Is Oil a Bubble? Part One [View article]
The Oil Shortage, and Other Fairy Tales [View article]
Crude Oil to $150, Then Major Correction? [View article]
Oil Looks Toppy: Ultrashort Oil and Gas Looks Good [View article]
Manpower a Weak Dollar and Potential Chindia Play? Who Knew? [View article]
The Death of Gold? [View article]
I do remember in the early-1980s when Mall kiosks opened up just for the public to sell their family gold pieces, to be melted into bullion. That marked a top in the gold market. I have heard similar type anecdotes today of traveling gold-buying merchants in rural counties -- I would view a larger saturation of this type of mass buying as a contrarian sign of top in the gold market.
Bandwagon Effects in the Stock Market [View article]
-- good info and research for day traders of the indexes
Was Peter Lynch Wrong? Crocs and Other Trendy Companies [View article]
Your points are well-taken, you are obviously sophisticated and intelligent. This piece was meant more as an anecdotal, breezy, educational type article, and to create some conversation. Some of the points made are not as obvious to newer, less-sophisticated investors.
Many many people fall prey to the hot stocks of the day and buy in right at the top, such as CROX at 70 last fall. We saw it happen on a massive scale when the Internet Bubble cracked in 2001. I, for one, did not lose everything that day, unlike many investors/traders. I was taking profits all the way up, and saw it for what it was, and foresaw the inevitable decline. Obviously I was not the only one, but many people got crushed.
As to the point about smart companies knowing when to sell out, the unwritten implication of my comment on Snapple and Vitamin Water was that the companies who bought them were kinda stupid, as in paid way too much in my perception. And while it may be obvious to you that UA could be a takeover target, it may not be to everyone.
Anyhoo, I'm writing a variety of articles, some of which will be very specific, some very technical, some breezy, some anecdotal, some very in-depth on complex options strategies, and some very opinionated (I just submitted a bullish WMT article today with specific targets). Hopefully you will like others better.
Electronic Arts: This Stock Isn't Playing Games [View article]
Ten Things You Can Worry About [View article]
Pretty much agreed
-- although investment companies of all sorts have all kinds of risk controls on paper -- in reality when a division/department/tr... is making big profits, they can pretty much do what they want to some degree -- which leads to Rogue Trader type situations as well as giving out idiotic Interest-Only mortgages to everyone and his brother
Wal-Mart: Another 20%-40% Upside in Store [View article]
A new Bullish Divergence [View article]
Who's to Blame for the Commodities Boom? [View article]
As far as I know, profiting from futures contracts without planning to take delivery has been happening as far back as Holland in the 1600s! Or look back the the 1970s when commodity/future trading was previously in vogue.
Blaming speculators and short sellers is always a silly strategy in a world with 2-sided markets and gigantic money flows.