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Moby Waller

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  • Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Emerge Stronger Than Ever [View article]
    After writing this report, I just found this article from a few days ago:

    Goldman bought 93,000 apartments in Germany for $1.2 Billion in CASH. Valued at $3.4 Billion including debt. Largest property transaction in Germany since credit crisis began.

    Is there any doubt who the "smart money" firm is?
    Jun 18 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Opportunities Like These Do Not Come Along Very Often [View article]
    Airlines -- not a good investment in generally every environment...includin... now
    Jun 18 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Cheesecake Factory: Have Your Cake and Eat It Too [View article]
    First ... selling naked put options requires very high margin requirements, so this trade will tie up a lot of your available trading capital in most people's accounts for a long time (7 months) and option approval level.

    Second... if CAKE drops to say 10 for example, for whatever reason, you will lose $7k on the stock and $5k on the puts, roughly a 100% loss -- so its not quite as risk-free as you indicate.

    But I did find the article and strategy interesting. I've developed a new credit and debit spread strategy service with limited risks on all trades. Check my website for further info.

    Jun 13 11:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The 20 Highest Yielding Dividend Aristocrats [View article]
    Yeah I see several of those financials breaking their 25 yr streaks of raising dividends
    Jun 12 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Buy-and-Hold Work on Major Blue Chips? [View article]
    I was going with 2000 for all charts, but changed GE and C to show their significant lows just before 2000.

    Also, what got me thinking of this story was that the "Consensus Top Buy Blue Chips" of the early-mid 1990s were stocks like MSFT, WMT, GE, and C. Also names like KO, PG, CSCO, ORCL, etc. It was widely said and thought you could just buy these and put em away and make money -- obviously there have been better places to be in the 2000s than these big names. I was thinking of what are the names today that most everyone loves and think have almost neverending upside: GOOG, AAPL, MCD, XOM, CHL, & Materials/Commodity type Sectors.
    Jun 11 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Buy-and-Hold Work on Major Blue Chips? [View article]
    Agreed on some your points. Sorry I left dividends out of the article, I had meant to mention them. However, my data shows MSFT and WMT with about a 1.6% yield currently -- GE and C yields are higher, but that is due to their share prices being around multi-year lows.
    Jun 11 09:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If You Think Oil Has Peaked, Buy Airline Stocks or FedEx [View article]
    Airlines didn't make good profits when Oil was $40, think I'll pass on 'em.
    May 30 09:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Amazon's Free Cash Flow Overstated? [View article]
    Nice article. I'm not an accountant, but I like someone who does their own thinking and analysis and comes to a logical conclusion. Wall St Analysts are frequently wrong -- remember the guy who was raising his price targets every day, up to about $1000, on Commerce One back in 2000ish.
    May 30 09:08 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Oil a Bubble? Part One [View article]
    Great chart showing Nasdaq vs. Homebuilders vs Oil. I tend to think we will hit $150 soon, then major correction to $100 or $75. I wrote an article here on seekingalpha yesterday about that.
    May 23 10:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Shortage, and Other Fairy Tales [View article]
    I foresee a likely move to $150 on Crude Oil, then a major pullback (possibly around August or as the Election nears) to the $100 level, and maybe as low as $75, mostly due to speculation coming out of the market. Other factors such as Beijing Olympics and coming Presidential Election may contribute to correction. Article on seekingalpha here:
    May 22 11:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil to $150, Then Major Correction? [View article]
    Another factor I neglected to mention in this piece was that if it appears likely that a Democrat will win the White House, oil prices are likely to drop, in my view. This is due to a likely lessening of troops in Iraq and general lowering of tensions in that region. But I do see $150 approaching very soon, and anyone who doesn't think there is massive speculation in that market at this point, is sadly mistaken.
    May 22 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Looks Toppy: Ultrashort Oil and Gas Looks Good [View article]
    I forecast a coming top of $150 in crude oil prices, before a major pullback to $100, and possibly as low as $75. Another factor for a coming possible correction in Oil prices is if the Democrats look likely to win in November -- due to their likelihood of scaling back in Iraq and generally dampening tensions in the region. Article on seeking alpha here:
    May 22 11:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Manpower a Weak Dollar and Potential Chindia Play? Who Knew? [View article]
    I hope you are feeding your hamsters well.
    Apr 22 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Death of Gold? [View article]
    Nice article, interesting -- I am also a contrarian from a sentiment standpoint, especially for big picture moves. However, I'm not sure if the London Times headline will be the bellwether you think it will be.

    I do remember in the early-1980s when Mall kiosks opened up just for the public to sell their family gold pieces, to be melted into bullion. That marked a top in the gold market. I have heard similar type anecdotes today of traveling gold-buying merchants in rural counties -- I would view a larger saturation of this type of mass buying as a contrarian sign of top in the gold market.
    Apr 21 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bandwagon Effects in the Stock Market [View article]
    "What this suggests is that, once a bandwagon starts during the day, it tends to persist into the close. Fading one-sided days, particularly of late, has not been a fruitful endeavor for traders. Expecting bandwagons to persist into the next day's trade, however, has also not been profitable."

    -- good info and research for day traders of the indexes
    Apr 18 03:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment