Seeking Alpha

Moby Waller's  Instablog

Moby Waller
Send Message
Moby Waller is a former CBOE Market Maker floor trader and off the floor London-based European Index Options Trader. He now works with BigTrends.com and is a Research Analyst and Portfolio Manager for BigTrends.com's ETF TRADR (http://www.bigtrends.com/getstarted/etfgrowth/), which provides... More
My company:
BigTrends
My blog:
BigTrends Blog
View Moby Waller's Instablogs on:
  • DIS: A 'No-Brainer' Stock To Own, In A Nutshell

    This article is a quick analysis that delves into the overall fundamental outlook and the big picture stock price movement, but not in an in-depth manner. Please do your own research and due diligence before investing in this or any other stock. Additionally, we may go long or short DIS at any time in our real-time Options Trading Recommendation services. Disclosure: no current personal holding in this stock, but one may be added at any time.

    By 'long-term', in this case we are referring to a 1 to 4 year time horizon, beyond that it gets rather difficult to forecast due to uncertainty and how rapidly things can change in the modern connected world.

    The Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS) -

    An incredible portfolio of global intellectual and other properties makes this a pop culture behemoth unlikely to slow down. Continued growth potential, reasonable valuation, good stock performance over long and short term, and always looking to buy/create valuable properties and the 'next big thing'.

    They own all or part of assets such as ESPN family of networks, ABC (includes ABC Family,etc), amusement resort parks, Pixar, Lucasfilm/Industrial Light & Magic, A&E Networks (includes A&E, History Channel, Lifetime Network, etc), vast library of animated classics … and much more.

    Additionally, they own brands such as the Mickey Mouse Club, the Muppets, Star Wars, Marvel Entertainment, Baby Einstein and many more and are regularly acquiring more of the top global intellectual properties. 'Nuff said (which is a Marvel Comics catch phrase).

    Current snapshot of fundamentals: Forward Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E) around 15. Various profit and ROE/ROA margins mostly in the 10 to 20% area. Dividend yield around 1.1% currently. Does have $14 billion debt (cash of around $4 billion), but that seems very manageable. Recent quarterly Revenue growth of 7%, Earnings growth of 12%. (data from Yahoo Finance).

    Taking a quick look at the shorter and longer term charts and technical analysis picture on DIS:

    On the Weekly Chart below covering the 2007 market crash, 2009 rebound, to the present, you can see that DIS certainly shrugged off the 07/08 declines very well and quickly and has since pushed much higher on. This bodes well if the broad market does have some weakness in the coming years - which is certainly possible, given the large gains seen in 2012 and 2013.

    DIS Weekly Chart
    (click to enlarge)

    On the shorter-term Daily Chart below, we've focused on basically the last 12 months. The trend in particular from April is worth focusing on - a very choppy range (similar to the broad market S&P 500 Index (SPX) (NYSEARCA:SPY) range in place over that time frame, actually DIS looks slightly weaker). But the current break above the October range is bullish, by our momentum style trend analysis standards.

    DIS Daily Chart
    (click to enlarge)

    Bottom Line: Sometimes as an investor and/or trader, you just have to 'Keep It Simple, Stupid' and go with the obvious play. To me, DIS is an example of that.

    (click to enlarge)

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Tags: DIS, long-ideas
    Nov 17 5:18 AM | Link | Comment!
  • 20 Most Popular ETFs Of 2013, Revisited

    A couple of years ago, we analyzed the most popular Exchange Traded Funds (NYSEMKT:ETF) by average daily trading volume. Here is the link to the original article from 2011.

    One important factor to our list is we've stripped out all of the Inverse, Ultra, Bear, etc ETFs to find only the "pure" sector and index plays.

    Here is an update to that list for August 2013:

    Most Actively Traded ETFs Table

    *Note the dominance of iShares and SPDRs in the above list.

    *Most of the names of the list are the same as 2 years ago, but the order has shuffled around quite a bit.

    *One notable ETF that has dropped off the popular list is US Natural Gas (NYSEARCA:UNG). Another one that failed to make the new list is iShares Taiwan (NYSEARCA:EWT).

    *New notable additions to the list include MarketVectors Gold Miners (NYSEARCA:GDX), iShares Real Estate (NYSEARCA:IYR), Utilities SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLU), and Consumer Staples SPDR (NYSEARCA:XLP).

    *Big Movers up on the list include Japan ETF (NYSEARCA:EWJ) and VIX Volatility ETF (NYSEARCA:VXX).

    Note that the main DJIA ETF (SPDR Dow Jones Industrial Average DIA) once again didn't even make the Top 20 here.

    Always be sure to check the holdings and expense fees (as well as bid/ask spreads and option liquidity) of an ETF you are considering investing in or trading. Yahoo Finance is a good easy source for Top 10 Holdings information, for example.

    We track and trade all of these very liquid ETFs and more in our ETFTRADR trade recommendation program.

    By Moby Waller,
    BigTrends.com
    1-800-244-8736

    Tags: SPY, EEM, EWJ, XLF, VXX, IWM, QQQ, GDX, VWO, EFA, FXI, EWZ, IYR, XLU, SLV, XLP, XLE, GLD, XLI, TLT, EWT, ETF, ETFs, 2013, List
    Aug 09 8:40 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Herbalife - Ultimate Short Squeeze On Ultimate Pyramid Company

    This blog entry is my own personal opinion, not those of any company I work for or represent. I have no position or stake in HLF stock or options currently.

    Going back 20 years, I remember Herbalife (NYSE:HLF) infomercials and knew a bit about it. It was always a MLM pyramid type "scheme" to me.

    Then they get a former Disney President as their CEO in 2003 and now many on Wall Street consider this a legitimate company/stock.

    A massive short squeeze is going on, as a major short went public late last year and major traders (not long-term investors) like Soros and Icahn are squeezing this to the upside big time.

    Latest data I see shows about 30 mil shares short on 100 million outstanding -- that's a lot of potential for a squeeze.

    Do I think this should be a "legit" $6 billion dollar market cap company -- absolutely not.

    But the short-term potential for upside is still large here due to momentum and the short interest. Long-term (2 years + out) I would have to rate this as a major sell (assuming all Pyramids eventually collapse of their own weight and also assuming some governments around the world may wake up to this company's practices). Having faith in ethical government is questionable too, however...

    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.

    Tags: HLF
    Jul 31 2:35 PM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers

StockTalks

More »

Latest Comments


Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.