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  • Top Retail Value Play Heading Into 2015: Sears Hometown And Outlet Stores
       • Dec. 30, 2014 SHOS 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Valuation across numerous metrics supports shares being woefully undervalued.
    • Continued closing of Sears mall based stores to benefit Hometown and Outlet.
    • Enormous growth opportunity in store count make this asset light dealer owned/franchise model a tremendous opportunity to see a double on this investment in 2015.
  • hhgregg: Industry Dynamics And Expectation Reset Should Lead To Over 50% Short-Term Upside
       • Oct. 30, 2014 HGG 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Company is a misunderstood retailer that has lost favor due to declining same store sales driven by management blunders and a dismal consumer electronics environment.
    • Shift in focus to selling big box items and a looming product cycle refresh in the TV market will provide significant tailwinds over coming months.
    • Pristine balance sheet will allow for the time needed to prune the low hanging fruit and a revamped management team with PE industry ties provides additional opportunity for upside.
  • Beazer: Back In The Bargain Bin
       • Aug. 9, 2014 BZH 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Beazer stock down almost 30% over the last month.
    • Company is executing on its plan to improve leverage and return to profitability.
    • Previous forward estimates from analysts proved to be incorrect and it appears FY 2015 estimates are off the market as well.
  • LeapFrog: Product Cycle Refresh Provides The Road Map For Substantial Upside
       • Aug. 9, 2014 LF 9 Comments

    Summary

    • LeapFrog stock has been beaten down due to an inventory glut that is a temporary problem.
    • New product releases scheduled for the balance of the FY should have investors looking back to what happened when LeapFrog first introduced the LeapPad.
    • Company maintains a pristine balance sheet and should generate acquisition overtures or an activist investor could step in to create value for shareholder.
  • ArcBest: 20% Earnings Related Decline Presents A Great Entry Point For Investors
       • Aug. 8, 2014 ARCB 8 Comments

    Summary

    • ArcBest fell over 20% after reporting substantial revenue growth with a noisy EPS number that missed expecations.
    • The company is now experiencing significant revenue and EBITDA growth and short-term operational efficiency growing pains will not persist.
    • 30% upside for ArcBest in the next 12 months.
  • Update: Rentrak Q1 Earnings
    Aug. 8, 2014 RENT 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Rentrak reported earnings that missed on the top line and beat on the bottom line.
    • Shares are currently up 75% from a year ago.
    • Buy, sell, or hold this small cap disruptor?
  • Apple: Hardware Innovation Is No Longer Enough
    Aug. 5, 2014 AAPL 54 Comments

    Summary

    • Hardware innovation is far too easily copied in the technology and gadget world today.
    • The largest opportunity for growth will come from recurring service or fee based revenue streams.
    • High margin software or fee based revenue streams will offset compression in hardware margins.
  • Taylor Morrison: Valuation Extremely Compelling
       • Aug. 5, 2014 TMHC 2 Comments

    Summary

    • 25% decline by the stock during July presents attractive entry point.
    • Well capitalized and positioned company in housing markets that have strong long-term attributes.
    • Earnings could be catalyst for next move higher.
  • MDC Holdings Has Become Both A Value Stock And Dividend Yield Opportunity
       • Aug. 5, 2014 MDC Comment!

    Summary

    • Homebuilder continues to trade at housing crisis-level valuations.
    • Currently paying an annual dividend yielding ~3.75%.
    • Rare opportunity for material stock appreciation while enjoying safe dividend yield.
  • BlackBerry Throws A Screen Pass On 4th And Long With Acquisition Of Secusmart
    Aug. 4, 2014 BBRY 261 Comments

    Summary

    • Proposed purchase of encryption technology sounds fancy but will likely have little impact in near term.
    • Focus on security, government and enterprise shows that addressable market without the consumer grows ever smaller.
    • The CEO touting this acquisition feels very much like a game of misdirection.
  • Why D.R. Horton's Q3 2014 Earnings Are Cause For Concern
       • Jul. 29, 2014 DHI 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Horton stock slammed on weak headline EPS numbers.
    • Earnings call and underlying business trend shift provide real cause for concern.
    • Additional downside likely for the nation's largest builder of new homes.
  • Move, Inc: The Unlikely Winner If Zillow Buys Trulia And The "Zillia" Monster Emerges
       • Jul. 29, 2014 MOVE 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Rumored Zillow acquisition of Trulia has ignited shares of both subject companies.
    • MOVE valuation is materially lower than the aforementioned competitors based on almost every metric.
    • Expect a backlash from the Real Estate industry against a Zillow and Trulia merger to benefit MOVE.
  • Update: Masco Q2 2014 Earnings
    Jul. 29, 2014 MAS Comment!

    Summary

    • Masco reported Q2 2014 earnings that exceeded consensus expectations.
    • Reported results confirm previously stated buy opinion.
    • Operating Margin percent continues to expand as expected.
  • Amazon: The Perma Bears Will Cost You Money If You Listen To Them
    Jul. 28, 2014 AMZN 50 Comments

    Summary

    • Shorting Amazon has worked and will continue to work only for traders.
    • The addressable market for Amazon continues to broaden with no potential opportunity left unturned.
    • Earnings don't matter today and won't matter tomorrow so please stop focusing on them.
  • The St. Joe Company: Special Situation With Potential Significant Capital Return
       • May. 1, 2014 JOE 81 Comments

    Summary

    • Earnings headlines in early May 2014 will provide a shock and awe moment that should move the stock higher.
    • The stock is down ~20% since announcing in late 2013 the contract for a land sale generating over $500M in cash proceeds.
    • The likelihood of the company initiating either a significant stock buyback or one-time dividend is very high.
  • MDC Holdings: Value Can Only Be Ignored For So Long
       • Apr. 22, 2014 MDC 1 Comment

    Summary

    • MDC is trading at the lowest price to book value of any small or large cap homebuilder.
    • The company is set up to once again beat earnings estimates when it reports May 1st.
    • Looking for a 10-15% upside move in the next 2 weeks on the back of industry wide earning strength.
  • KB Home: Recent Earnings Report Flips This Bear To A Bull
       • Apr. 22, 2014 KBH 3 Comments

    Summary

    • 30% upside seen in FY 2014 based on multiple upcoming catalysts.
    • KB's investment in land over the last 24 months has paved the way for significant revenue and EPS growth.
    • Company has effectively managed its cash and debt balances through the reinvestment cycle and is now poised to reap the rewards.
  • William Lyon Homes: Land Heavy West Coast Builder Set To Smash Estimates
       • Sep. 25, 2013 WLH 9 Comments
  • Rentrak: Is The Company Still A Buy After A 60% Move Higher?
       • Sep. 24, 2013 RENT Comment!
  • Shutterstock: Latest Price Action Should Leave Investors Scratching Their Heads
       • Sep. 24, 2013 SSTK 4 Comments
  • Outerwall: Long Thesis Remains Intact And Sell-Off Represents Opportunity
       • Sep. 23, 2013 OUTR 12 Comments
  • BlackBerry: The End Game Approaches
    Sep. 23, 2013 BBRY 8 Comments
  • USG Corp: This Warren Buffett Favorite Is Primed For Explosive Earnings Growth
       • Aug. 27, 2013 USG 14 Comments
  • Consider Apple: A Gold iPhone 5S Will Save The Day
    Aug. 26, 2013 AAPL 100 Comments
  • Ryland Homes: What To Do Now That The Stock Is 30% Off Its Highs
       • Aug. 25, 2013 RYL 7 Comments
  • Taylor Morrison: Noisy Quarter Post IPO Clouds Significant Operational Gains
       • Aug. 24, 2013 TMHC 2 Comments
  • Housing Data Points Diverge: What You Need To Know Now
    Aug. 23, 2013 XHB, ITB, PKB 14 Comments
  • Mea Culpa: Beazer Homes May Be Best Speculative Play In Homebuilding
       • Aug. 10, 2013 BZH 14 Comments
  • MDC Q2 2013 Earnings: The Fallacy Of Following The Headlines
       • Jul. 31, 2013 MDC 1 Comment
  • UCP Inc: Hybrid Real Estate Play Offers The Most Short-Term Upside In Real Estate
       • Jul. 25, 2013 UCP 34 Comments
  • KB Home: Large Amount Of Idle Land Inventory And Debt
       • Jul. 19, 2013 KBH Comment!
  • BlackBerry Can Engage In Value Creation Through Preservation
    Editors' Pick • Jul. 17, 2013 BBRY 173 Comments