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PRO articles cover stocks that fly under most investors' radar screens.
  • Zulily: Reset Expectations On This Growth Story Create Substantial Opportunity
     • Wed, Mar. 11 ZU 15 Comments

    Summary

    • E-commerce flash sales leader continues to be a phenomenal growth story with a massive addressable market.
    • Stock is 80% off its highs post IPO and 40% below its IPO price.
    • Valuation, cash hoard, and FCF generating ability, and reset expectations make this a top pick.
  • Hhgregg: Important Nuggets From A Noisy Earnings Report
     • Mon, Mar. 9 HGG 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Headline earnings were marred by asset impairments related to the performance of certain stores.
    • Business model is being finally being analyzed in a way that will drive out significant costs.
    • Consumer electronic tailwind from television upgrade cycle has finally arrived which will drive material improvement.
  • Sears Hometown And Outlet Stores: Getting Ready For Lift-Off
     • Sat, Mar. 7 SHOS 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Company continues to be ignored by investment community giving investors a great opportunity to buy.
    • Valuation and opportunity for growth provide greatest risk/reward profile of any stock I follow.
    • Earnings should report the week of March 9th providing the next catalyst.
  • KB Home: Stay Away For Now
     • Sat, Mar. 7 KBH 18 Comments

    Summary

    • The Q4 2014 earnings report and conference call highlight structural issues facing the company.
    • The rest of the housing industry is separating itself from KB in terms of performance on key metrics.
    • Further clarity needed on long-lived land assets before investors can step back into this stock.
  • Top Retail Value Play Heading Into 2015: Sears Hometown And Outlet Stores
       • Dec. 30, 2014 SHOS 16 Comments

    Summary

    • Valuation across numerous metrics supports shares being woefully undervalued.
    • Continued closing of Sears mall based stores to benefit Hometown and Outlet.
    • Enormous growth opportunity in store count make this asset light dealer owned/franchise model a tremendous opportunity to see a double on this investment in 2015.
  • hhgregg: Industry Dynamics And Expectation Reset Should Lead To Over 50% Short-Term Upside
       • Oct. 30, 2014 HGG 13 Comments

    Summary

    • Company is a misunderstood retailer that has lost favor due to declining same store sales driven by management blunders and a dismal consumer electronics environment.
    • Shift in focus to selling big box items and a looming product cycle refresh in the TV market will provide significant tailwinds over coming months.
    • Pristine balance sheet will allow for the time needed to prune the low hanging fruit and a revamped management team with PE industry ties provides additional opportunity for upside.
  • Beazer: Back In The Bargain Bin
       • Aug. 9, 2014 BZH 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Beazer stock down almost 30% over the last month.
    • Company is executing on its plan to improve leverage and return to profitability.
    • Previous forward estimates from analysts proved to be incorrect and it appears FY 2015 estimates are off the market as well.
  • LeapFrog: Product Cycle Refresh Provides The Road Map For Substantial Upside
       • Aug. 9, 2014 LF 9 Comments

    Summary

    • LeapFrog stock has been beaten down due to an inventory glut that is a temporary problem.
    • New product releases scheduled for the balance of the FY should have investors looking back to what happened when LeapFrog first introduced the LeapPad.
    • Company maintains a pristine balance sheet and should generate acquisition overtures or an activist investor could step in to create value for shareholder.
  • ArcBest: 20% Earnings Related Decline Presents A Great Entry Point For Investors
       • Aug. 8, 2014 ARCB 8 Comments

    Summary

    • ArcBest fell over 20% after reporting substantial revenue growth with a noisy EPS number that missed expecations.
    • The company is now experiencing significant revenue and EBITDA growth and short-term operational efficiency growing pains will not persist.
    • 30% upside for ArcBest in the next 12 months.
  • Taylor Morrison: Valuation Extremely Compelling
       • Aug. 5, 2014 TMHC 2 Comments

    Summary

    • 25% decline by the stock during July presents attractive entry point.
    • Well capitalized and positioned company in housing markets that have strong long-term attributes.
    • Earnings could be catalyst for next move higher.
  • MDC Holdings Has Become Both A Value Stock And Dividend Yield Opportunity
       • Aug. 5, 2014 MDC Comment!

    Summary

    • Homebuilder continues to trade at housing crisis-level valuations.
    • Currently paying an annual dividend yielding ~3.75%.
    • Rare opportunity for material stock appreciation while enjoying safe dividend yield.
  • Why D.R. Horton's Q3 2014 Earnings Are Cause For Concern
       • Jul. 29, 2014 DHI 18 Comments

    Summary

    • Horton stock slammed on weak headline EPS numbers.
    • Earnings call and underlying business trend shift provide real cause for concern.
    • Additional downside likely for the nation's largest builder of new homes.
  • Move, Inc: The Unlikely Winner If Zillow Buys Trulia And The "Zillia" Monster Emerges
       • Jul. 29, 2014 MOVE 2 Comments

    Summary

    • Rumored Zillow acquisition of Trulia has ignited shares of both subject companies.
    • MOVE valuation is materially lower than the aforementioned competitors based on almost every metric.
    • Expect a backlash from the Real Estate industry against a Zillow and Trulia merger to benefit MOVE.
  • The St. Joe Company: Special Situation With Potential Significant Capital Return
       • May. 1, 2014 JOE 81 Comments

    Summary

    • Earnings headlines in early May 2014 will provide a shock and awe moment that should move the stock higher.
    • The stock is down ~20% since announcing in late 2013 the contract for a land sale generating over $500M in cash proceeds.
    • The likelihood of the company initiating either a significant stock buyback or one-time dividend is very high.
  • MDC Holdings: Value Can Only Be Ignored For So Long
       • Apr. 22, 2014 MDC 1 Comment

    Summary

    • MDC is trading at the lowest price to book value of any small or large cap homebuilder.
    • The company is set up to once again beat earnings estimates when it reports May 1st.
    • Looking for a 10-15% upside move in the next 2 weeks on the back of industry wide earning strength.
  • KB Home: Recent Earnings Report Flips This Bear To A Bull
       • Apr. 22, 2014 KBH 3 Comments

    Summary

    • 30% upside seen in FY 2014 based on multiple upcoming catalysts.
    • KB's investment in land over the last 24 months has paved the way for significant revenue and EPS growth.
    • Company has effectively managed its cash and debt balances through the reinvestment cycle and is now poised to reap the rewards.
  • William Lyon Homes: Land Heavy West Coast Builder Set To Smash Estimates
       • Sep. 25, 2013 WLH 9 Comments
  • Rentrak: Is The Company Still A Buy After A 60% Move Higher?
       • Sep. 24, 2013 RENT Comment!
  • Shutterstock: Latest Price Action Should Leave Investors Scratching Their Heads
       • Sep. 24, 2013 SSTK 4 Comments
  • Outerwall: Long Thesis Remains Intact And Sell-Off Represents Opportunity
       • Sep. 23, 2013 OUTR 12 Comments
  • USG Corp: This Warren Buffett Favorite Is Primed For Explosive Earnings Growth
       • Aug. 27, 2013 USG 14 Comments
  • Ryland Homes: What To Do Now That The Stock Is 30% Off Its Highs
       • Aug. 25, 2013 RYL 7 Comments
  • Taylor Morrison: Noisy Quarter Post IPO Clouds Significant Operational Gains
       • Aug. 24, 2013 TMHC 2 Comments
  • Mea Culpa: Beazer Homes May Be Best Speculative Play In Homebuilding
       • Aug. 10, 2013 BZH 14 Comments
  • MDC Q2 2013 Earnings: The Fallacy Of Following The Headlines
       • Jul. 31, 2013 MDC 1 Comment
  • UCP Inc: Hybrid Real Estate Play Offers The Most Short-Term Upside In Real Estate
       • Jul. 25, 2013 UCP 34 Comments
  • KB Home: Large Amount Of Idle Land Inventory And Debt
       • Jul. 19, 2013 KBH Comment!
  • Coldwater Creek: A Potential Lotto Ticket In The Retail Sector
       • Jul. 17, 2013 CWTR 14 Comments
  • The Fresh Market Growth Story Is High Risk
       • Jul. 15, 2013 TFM 4 Comments
  • Shutterstock Valuation Makes Me Shudder
       • Jul. 13, 2013 SSTK 14 Comments
  • Carter's: Good Business But More Than Fully Valued
       • Jul. 11, 2013 CRI 1 Comment
  • Ingles Markets Could Be In Play After Harris Teeter Acquisition
       • Jul. 11, 2013 IMKTA 13 Comments