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  • Amazon's Diapers Are Going To Flop Just Like The Fire Phone [View article]
    Gotta say I totally disagree on this. As a parent who has ordered thousands of diapers, I really could care less about the brand. As the kids get older, all they care about is what image is on the diaper (mickey, minnie, spider man, etc...).

    The pricing discount that you reference versus pampers, which you call a slight discount, is almost a 25% discount. You can argue it is slight because the difference per diaper is counted in pennies, but the percentage discount is very large.

    Apples and Oranges when you compare the Fire Phone flop to basically entering the generic brand market for diapers or other consumables. It is pretty well proven that customers are abandoning the old line brands for generics without much regard for brands anymore.
    Dec 5, 2014. 02:17 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • hhgregg Fiscal Q2 Earnings Reveals Continued Weakness [View article]
    This will be a classic bull/bear argument on this stock to watch. Wish my article would have been released now versus the time it was released.

    Couple things I would disagree with:

    - hhgregg is not getting out of electronics as you imply. They are focusing on larger electronics, the type that are harder to showroom, which will be the new wave of large screen 4K/Ultra HDTV's. I don't think they even have to execute on this plan for it to be successful they just ride the coming wave.

    - "People aren't buying homes" - Slightly misleading. Compared to 2004-2006 levels maybe. I would not call 5M plus resale homes trading hands annually not buying homes. You could also argue this is a lower number than it should be and thus pent up demand for future home sales - http://bloom.bg/10ikWWX

    - Operating Lease example - Sure it's a fixed cost, not sure about the analysis you did as an example against Best Buy. I don't see the operating lease at 4.5% of total revenue for hhgregg being the issue. The company has more SG&A than it needs from an overall standpoint, with regards infrastructure put in place for growing the store base further.

    Fair assessment of challenges but the upside is even more disproportionate today compared to the downside.
    Nov 4, 2014. 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Rentrak: Disruptive Business Model In Evolving Media World Leads To Significant Upside Potential [View article]
    Almost 18 month's after the original call on RENT, the thesis has more than proven out with the stock up over 200% since the original call was made. In subsequent articles, while noting it would be human nature to want to take profits after such a good run, I have maintained that the company still has enormous opportunities in front of it which could manifest into further upside for the stock.

    I continue to believe that Rentrak is employing an extremely disruptive business model with a business plan that is set to capitalize on the evolving media landscape. With consumers viewing media using any number of platforms in the world today, it is extremely important to accurately measure the number of consumers being reached across all viewing mediums.

    Take one look at the new feed tab on Seeking Alpha for this stock and you will see the almost never ending stream of positive news and announcements for the company - http://bit.ly/1wRW9FP

    Since the original article, the most bullish news has come in the form of the national networks (CBS, Fox, and others) becoming clients of Rentrak. The upside for Rentrak still remains significant, but once again, I would not begrudge anyone who bought the stock when it was trading in the low $20's to take some of the table after such a significant move higher. 
    Nov 1, 2014. 02:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • hhgregg: Industry Dynamics And Expectation Reset Should Lead To Over 50% Short-Term Upside [View article]
    Two things. From the table, the company spent almost $36M more in advertising to drive $260M more in revenue comparing 2014 to 2011. Terrible return on that incremental investment.

    Second point is with regards to branding. The company pumped money into advertising hhgregg, the brand, and not the prices and promotions that consumers care about. If you get an email promotion from company XYZ and one from Amazon.com, and company XYZ is a legit company selling the same product Amazon caries for 30% less who are you going to purchase from? The answer is probably company XYZ.

    The CEO was making the point that consumers care about value, and less about the brand, and they missed the boat on this in an advertising campaign focused on the brand.

    The same concept you see when we as consumers buy the generic version of food or medicines. Brand is dying commodity.
    Oct 31, 2014. 02:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • hhgregg: Industry Dynamics And Expectation Reset Should Lead To Over 50% Short-Term Upside [View article]
    Earnings out today and the stock is down about 10% on the back of a 5%+ decline yesterday. I have bought the dip pretty heavily.

    Management commentary from conference call was in line with previous guidance which is for 2nd half improvement. Specifically, comp sales since Labor Day have been positive across the largest product line (Appliances at over 50% of total sales) and have been in the mid single digit (declines) on an overall basis.

    Continue to guide for positive EBITDA, cash balance back over $40M, and balance sheet continues to be rock solid. Buy the dip.
    Oct 30, 2014. 09:42 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ArcBest: 20% Earnings Related Decline Presents A Great Entry Point For Investors [View article]
    I probably could have extrapolated a bit more. I was inferring that if the equity market cap did not change from its current figure, the cash generated over the period of time I mentioned, would have the effect of reducing the EV of the company with all other factors staying the same.
    Aug 10, 2014. 02:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ArcBest: 20% Earnings Related Decline Presents A Great Entry Point For Investors [View article]
    The company has historically been able to pass on fuel surcharges if fuel costs spike, in the context of an improving economy where demand will allow for it. I am not overly concerned about rising fuel costs or being unable to pass along to customers.
    Aug 8, 2014. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LeapFrog: Product Cycle Refresh Provides The Road Map For Substantial Upside [View article]
    Mr.Wonderful thanks for the comments.

    I would offer that R&D expenses being lower YoY is very likely a reflection of the new products that are already coming to market (i.e, R&D expense on those items was largely incurred in prior periods).

    I would also argue that the products are unique enough, and that is all that matters. I made it clear this is not an extremely long term call on a company that is in a hyper competitive industry. I believe that that even minimal adoption and excitement around the new products will catapult the stock higher in the short term given the heavy short base and solid balance sheet for LF.
    Aug 8, 2014. 09:46 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Hardware Innovation Is No Longer Enough [View article]
    I appreciate all the commentary. I would note that I hardware will continue to be a critical component of the Apple story going forward, but I adamantly believe that if hardware dominates the headlines, then you should sell your Apple stock. There will also be another competitor who can innovate and create hardware. It will take a mammoth effort to cut into the 800M people who use Apple iTunes or related software, and my point is Apple could easily do a better job monetizing this gold mine it sits on. I believe the company will monetize its users, and that is why one should be long Apple stock today.
    Aug 8, 2014. 01:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why D.R. Horton's Q3 2014 Earnings Are Cause For Concern [View article]
    WallStreetDebunker

    Your 40% of book value reference came when the entire world appeared to be collapsing during the height of the recession.

    Also if you do look at a price to book value chart, you can see large bounces almost every time the stock trades at 1x book value.

    Clearly DR Horton is not at these levels today, but I would tell you that if the stock did approach 1x book value, I would buy it in a heart beat.
    Aug 7, 2014. 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Hardware Innovation Is No Longer Enough [View article]
    optimyst -

    My point is that Apple would have a higher base of users to monetize if they did not simply concede the low end market to Android.
    Aug 5, 2014. 10:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Throws A Screen Pass On 4th And Long With Acquisition Of Secusmart [View article]
    PlentyOStocks -

    Great insight from you as always. Keep it coming.
    Aug 4, 2014. 08:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Throws A Screen Pass On 4th And Long With Acquisition Of Secusmart [View article]
    I see BlackBerry having less than $3.1B in cash and the same $1B+ amount of debt that they have today. So to answer your question, with a weaker balance sheet by the end of the year than what they have today.
    Aug 4, 2014. 08:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Throws A Screen Pass On 4th And Long With Acquisition Of Secusmart [View article]
    "20,000 BB10 device purchases by the German's is a testament to the benefits of this purchase."

    Let me get the rationale of the above statement from you. BlackBerry sells 20,000 units at $500 per unit. So the company can generate $10M in revenue from the German government as part of this acquisition. Maybe generate $4M in gross profit. Maybe generate $2M after SG&A?

    Yay. BlackBerry is saved.
    Aug 4, 2014. 03:45 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Throws A Screen Pass On 4th And Long With Acquisition Of Secusmart [View article]
    I would imagine that Google, Apple, IBM, or one of a dozen other companies could have purchased SecuSmart if they wanted to..But they didn't. Imagine what that should be telling you.
    Aug 4, 2014. 03:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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