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  • Consider Apple: A Gold iPhone 5S Will Save The Day [View article]
    As far as my comment about a larger screen...

    It is revolutionary only for Apple because they are so far behind the curve and trend of what users desire today.
    Aug 26 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider Apple: A Gold iPhone 5S Will Save The Day [View article]
    The verdict is still out on whether the iPad Mini will be a success. All it has been successful at so far is helping Apple to see its gross margin % plummet. Additional volume of unit shipments can only offset plunging gross margin %'s for so long.
    Aug 26 09:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ryland Homes: What To Do Now That The Stock Is 30% Off Its Highs [View article]
    I am not sure I understand your comment? I am not aware of a way to look at "historical forward P/E's". Not even sure that concept exists.

    By looking at historical "actual" P/E figures, the point is to try to ascertain that when the market correctly prices Ryland based on its expected 2014 earnings what multiple we could expect to see and thus where the shares might trade.
    Aug 25 09:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ryland Homes: What To Do Now That The Stock Is 30% Off Its Highs [View article]
    Actually I am very bullish on housing and housing stocks. My recommended trade was in essence a long trade on Ryland so I am not sure where you are coming from with your comment.
    Aug 25 08:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Data Points Diverge: What You Need To Know Now [View article]
    Pretty sure you are either Hanson or one of his cronies.

    Either way...a house that sold for $400,000 in 2005 and then was sold again in a foreclosure auction for $250,000 in 2013 is quite obviously "more affordable" today than it was then.

    There are millions of homes that fit this criteria, just change the number of how far the priced dropped depending on the geography.
    Aug 24 02:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Data Points Diverge: What You Need To Know Now [View article]
    Housing is more affordable today than it was in 2005. That is not really even a debate. The debate is whether or not the affordability is due only to the lower interest rates, and it is clear a portion of that answer is yes.

    I believe that home price gains will be very stagnant in the years to come as interest rates creep higher which will mean the affordability equation should stay relatively intact for the foreseeable future.

    If you have no wage gains, higher interest rates, and rising home prices over a long period of time....we will be back in bubble city.

    http://onforb.es/1daSafV
    Aug 23 09:22 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing Data Points Diverge: What You Need To Know Now [View article]
    Confidence peaked when the bubble peaked and then tanked in line with the housing market. It also started a stead march higher about 18 months ago when the housing market improved.

    Looking at just the last 10 years it has been very predictive of where the market is headed.
    Aug 23 09:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid A Sale - 100% Undervalued: BlackBerry's Potential Playbook [View article]
    For the edification of this author and any other's following the BlackBerry saga, there is zero possibility that the company is able to go private with the same amount of cash and investments it currently has on its balance sheet today (~$3B).

    For example, this author is making the point in comparing his valuation to that of an analyst that he is including the full value of the cash/investment position for BlackBerry whereas the analyst only includes a portion.

    The analyst in this case, which is also the same for every other analyst who has released a going private valuation, is making the correct assumption that BlackBerry will incur significant cash costs to wind down certain operations and for severance costs related to drastically reducing the current size of the company. Any go private bid or takeover bid will be based on right sizing the business and focusing on the portions of the business where there are the most value (MDM and Services). The hardware business will be jettisoned quicker than you can blink and that will cost money.

    Do not assume that the full amount of cash you see today will be there after the next round of restructuring.
    Aug 13 09:17 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • UCP Inc: Hybrid Real Estate Play Offers The Most Short-Term Upside In Real Estate [View article]
    I generally like seeing those who have not yet made their fortunes running a company. More reason for them to work hard and create value.
    Aug 13 08:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corporate Governance And Economic Conditions Make Jos. A. Bank A Short [View article]
    Interesting and somewhat inflammatory article. You are making a pretty large assumption in your article that the independent auditors at JOSB are completely asleep at the wheel. For the company to continue to generate 60%+ gross margins on an annual basis, with what you seem to be implying is nothing more than a sleight of hand trick, would be pretty impressive.

    Also, I am curious how the promotional practice at JOSB is any different than any other retailer? I can name dozens of retailers who have a 50% off clearance rack in the store 365 days a year. These companies might not heavily promote the clearance items, but they are there day in and day out.

    You also have some other items in your article I take issue with:

    - You note that from 2003 to 2004 the cost of the external audit went up significantly. This is the same time period when publicly traded firms were forced to begin complying with Section 404 of Sarbanes Oxley which greatly increased the amount of hours from an audit standpoint around internal controls. This is not a red flag and is something you can probably find in any number of publicly traded firms 10K's depending on the year they incurred the bulk of their heavy lifting for SOX.

    - I also find it interesting that you take issue with the company expanding its business by signing operating leases? Name one retail company today that is expanding its business without signing operating leases?
    Aug 12 05:50 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mea Culpa: Beazer Homes May Be Best Speculative Play In Homebuilding [View article]
    I am not assuming any HPA appreciation for FY 2014 above what the company already has reflected in their backlog. Backlog ASP was ~$275K or $20K higher than that seen from Q3 closings. Said another way, I believe the company has 200bps of GM% increase already in backlog from pricing actions already taken.

    The $.88 of EPS for 2014 is intriguing because the build out of the community count will not be completed at the beginning of 2014. For example, by 2015, the company should be operating closer to its targeted community count level driving significantly higher EPS in 2015 (I would estimate over $1.50 in FY2015).

    The PB ratio is also going to be extremely compelling and I think that drives investor interest when it is actually reported with the effect of the DTA reversal, which will not be until 2015 probably for GAAP rules. However by that time, the thesis will have played out and you would have probably missed the opportunity.
    Aug 12 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mea Culpa: Beazer Homes May Be Best Speculative Play In Homebuilding [View article]
    Margin growth is a lagging indicator in homebuilding. For example, the average sales price of homes sold but not closed is over $20K than that for homes closed in the last quarter.

    What does this mean? A portion of the higher ASP is related to the mix of communities most likely. However an equal portion of going to be related to price increases that have been taken but have not yet shown up because the homes have not closed. The same concept of how gross margin % grew by 200bps on a QoQ basis will play out again over the coming year because of the higher prices.

    I am not assuming the market gets any better at all. Simply that price increases that have already been taken stick and that the same volume of business continues without any additional growth except from new communities. Pretty simple analysis quite frankly.
    Aug 11 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mea Culpa: Beazer Homes May Be Best Speculative Play In Homebuilding [View article]
    Heavy amount of debt and for those seeking exposure to a short in the industry. Very misguided in my opinion and with a pretty small float to begin with will be a huge catalyst for shares running higher at some point.
    Aug 9 01:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Importance Of The Department Of Defense Contract For BlackBerry [View article]
    I have a lot of hope for BlackBerry, but this article is grasping at straws.

    Remember when BlackBerry announced a 1M unit order for BB10 phones? The point being, this means nothing in the grand scheme of whether or not BlackBerry will succeed, just as what many thought was a game changing sizable order meant nothing.
    Aug 8 11:48 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • UCP Inc: Hybrid Real Estate Play Offers The Most Short-Term Upside In Real Estate [View article]
    Do you really care if real estate, with a carrying value of north of $140M, might be burdened by $40M in debt? It might be a problem if the company had $400M in debt...but they do not.

    PICO allowed their shares to be diluted in the IPO because the company realizes the optimal way to create value from the land holdings is for UCP to be successful as a development/homebuliding company. When UCP shares double, the shares owned by PICO will double in value as well.
    Jul 29 08:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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